저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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인플레이션이 과거 예상보다 높게 지속될 위험이 있으며 그린경제·재무장·인프라·재정적자가 인플레 압력이다. 시장은 소프트랜딩을 과도하게 반영(주식 고평가, 신용스프레드 낮음)하고 있어 조정 위험이 있다. 지정학(러-우크라이나, 중동, 북한, 중국)이 주요 스트레스 요인이며, 금리 상승+스태그플레이션 시 부동산·레버리지기업·사모신용에 스트레스가 올 수 있다. 중국 리스크는 높아졌지만 미국 기업의 중국 철수는 없을 것. 인도는 장기적으로 밝다. 바젤3 규제는 과도하고 근거가 불명확하다고 비판.
다듬은 글
[ definitely my highlight of the day Jamie Diamond a lot to talk about JP Morgan chair and chief executive thank you so much for hosting us again at your Global Market conference what's Market turbulence looking like right now so we have the CPI print yesterday markets rally are they're getting ahead of themselves yeah so um I wouldn't call turbulence and we've got we've had good healthy markets for quite a while uh you know they kind of predicting a soft landing and you see that in both stock price which are kind of high credit spreads which are kind of low markets which are kind of wide open that's all good doesn't tell you what the future is going to be I can point A lot of times in history where that was true and the next year wasn't true and so uh you know we'll see I don't pay as much attention to monthly numbers as most people do I know so what do you think the future is for inflation and interest I'm a little more worried about it I mean you know we've had very big fiscal deficits and you know I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expected to and I I look at the future like a lot of things we look at are kind of inflationary the green economy the remilitarization of the world the infrastructure requirements the restructuring of trade fiscal deficits so I think there are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us that you know may keep it a little bit higher than people expect so the surprise would be rates are higher inflation a little bit higher uh and maybe that'll slow growth and and and obviously geopolitics is a whole different issue that that can that could be Det determin of in what our economy does next year and we just we're just not going to know but so does that mean you think it's 50/50 whether the FED Cuts or hikes at at next time around I really don't pay that much attention to that the FED will have to follow the the data and I don't know what the data is going to say but they I think you know they're doing the right thing to be patient right now see see what's going to happen they may not know for a couple of months but no big correction I mean if you don't pay you know that much attention to it it means you're not worried about anything no I'm worried I just said stocks are very high I think the chance of inflation staying higher rates going up or higher than other people think so I think the chance my view is whatever the world is pricing for soft Landing I think it's probably half that I think the chance of something going wrong is higher than people think in the US or globally well I say in the US but also that could affect globally yeah and and so that what does that mean for markets they'd be down and credit spreads would got Gap out so why is the market not pricing that in a lot of Happy Talk where does that Happy Talk come from low rates central banks going to R reduce rates you know maybe the geopolitical things disseminate don't cause problems and so uh you know the future isn't predictable like that so I you know I'm a student of History I watched all the inflection points you go back and my dad was a stock broker I go back to the booming Market of 72 and the collaps of 74 the healthy markets of 80 the collaps of 82 you know the N the 87 Market crashed the 1990 real estate crashed the and almost all of them were not predicted the year before so I look at these factors that drive these things they not always known as a company we prepare for all of this we can serve all our clients regardless but but what do you see as a main stress right now because if it's geopolitics we talk about it it's just not really priced in where does where does is it distress is it something actually going under that you worry about or just a multiple factors coming in at the same time no I think well geopolitics could create the main stress that were wor about in terms of oil and gas prices uh of trade alliances uh uh but I think the surprise would be higher rates because inflation didn't go down that inflation's been stubborn maybe bounces up next year I think inflation next year may be in the cards may have nothing to do with what you're seeing today so I'm I that to me is the surprise if you had higher rates and God forbid stagflation yeah you'll see stress in real estate and leverage companies and some private credit and uh things like that so is unpredictability The New Normal I think it's been the normous of my whole life has it yes not worse now no what happens between China and the us and what does that mean for for your appetite of being China yeah so the geopolitical situation is very tense because more because of Ukraine and Russia Iran the terrorist activities in Israel uh North Korea nuclear blackmail we've never had nuclear blackmail before and this is of course affecting our relationship with China and you know it's going to be hard to have a great relation with China the Ukraine Wars on we're kind of different sides of that and put it put Taiwan aside having said that I think it's the right thing for America to fully and deeply engage with China you know competitively you know every nation is going to do what in their own interest of national security so should America we should Define that fairly and properly if there unfair trade you know negotiate that or do whatever you need to do but the engagement is the right thing to do China does is not a natural enemy of the United States they have a lot of their own problems uh so you know to me we we could work together as best we can and then we have common interests climate anti-nuclear proliferation anti-terrorism but what does it mean for a bank working in China actually given all of this volatility cautious I mean you know China if you look at China from a risk award basis it used to be very good it's not so good anymore because all all these things can go wrong remember we bank I mean iot the number but 1,500 multinationals in China they're not leaving China so we're going to serve our clients there we're just much more cognizant the risk is higher and might put Hong Kong in that bucket too I you know we look kind of look at China Hong Kong as one at this point from a risk D Point what does a trump Administration mean for the US economy I don't know you know they're why because it's unpredictable or because we're too soon to actually try trying to figure out the policies that he would put in place so if you look at history who was elected president may not necessarily affect the next year that's kind of like we're a big tanker and that's going to happen and I think the much more important thing is what we do in the geopolitical situation you know I've always been quite clear that American leadership is provided to keep the world free and safe in democracy and that means economic alliances which includes trade by the way I think we should spend more time in trade it means NATO it means that Russia should not win in Ukraine because if they do I think it can tear us under this Western World I know I know you've ruled out being treasury secretary why what would it take to get you into politics I I don't think I'm suited for politics I love my job you know and so I'm not sure I want to do something like that and I can hope even if you got the call you you would it be hard to say no I don't know I probably yes I love my job and I have no interest in leaving or doing anything else so we're in France at a global markets conference what are you expecting from bosel 3 what will J Powell put in place in new rule book I I should mention by the way cuz president mcon has done an outstanding job here Pro business got us to move our trading flu here you know he wants to grow his economy there's much more Innovation we had a thing last by lot Innovation so look bosel 3 we've been quite clear I we thought it was excessive not well thought through I would love to know what the endgame is what are they trying to accomplish with private credit what are they trying to accomplish with like even the other day 80% of mortgage left the system and now the government is talking about having a bailout system for mortgage companies because they're no longer in a bank that has the ability to provide liquidity in tough markets that that would be the same thing in Market making so they're looking at it you know I trust Jay Powell to look at and analyze what they need to do how they need to do it the other thing which I'm not sure Europeans I have no idea and and it may end up in a lawsuit or something like that but but the the amazing thing to me is that America ended up the endgame 30% more Capital than a European Bank in America and I I just why are we arguing about International standards and then we simply don't do them and also I think the regulator should answer the question what do you want how do you want to system to work is is do you want it to private credit or Public Credit do you want mortgage out of the banks just dictate it if that's the goal just dictate it if you don't want leverage to lay in the bank just dictate it you know and I think you know we are Guardians of the financial system you know we Bank you know we Bank a 100 countries and you know uh we're on the ground in 60 countries you know we do great work for cities schools States hospitals solar wind climate Middle Market companies is that what they don't want or they do want you know they want to make it more expensive they know they still trying I think they've got to figure it out I don't think it's quite clear from any analysis they did you guys should read it and write about it there was no detailed announce about cost benefit what they're trying to accomplish what the outcome will be that's that's why we're asking you Jamie talk to me about France so you're you're you're positive on the president man mcoin also know that you were at the chose France event on Monday if he relaxed labor laws would you hire more in this country he did relax labor laws but if he relax them more possibly you know we now have a thousand people here we have large trading floors here was trade I I've got to number five or8 five or six 7 $800 million a day uh when you have a, people you tend to hire more more technology more and that's been true for us since I've been at JP morg once you have a a very competent group of people and you have hiring and capability and friends you tend to do more things there so my view is we will be doing more things here and it was the tax low they put in place the regulation they put in place the labor flexibility they put in place those things do make a difference and very importantly they don't just lift up JP Morgan here we pay a lot of taxes here which helps lift up all citizens I don't think president mccrone did that for JP Morgan he did it because he knows his country needs to grow bring it Innovation and that's how you that's how you build a better country so the chief executive of the largest wealth Fund in the world says that actually America is doing much better because Americans are less lazy or work harder than the Europeans I mean is that fair is that regulation I I hate total playing of statements like that I know a lot of Europeans who work work hard but but I think when you see the things about work hours I think it is somewhat true uh um Americans are hardworking anywhere you go around America is hardworking but I see that here too I don't think and The Innovation People You Meet they're working just as hard as The Innovation people in the United States so you also in in terms of headcount in the UK I think it's at the highest that it's ever been and you're also doing you're you're giving money to try and R TR and you've recently met with possibly the next prime minister cuz he's so far are advancing the polls what do you think yeah I look I like the fact that both the conservative and the labor governments are talking about Pro business simpler regulations getting more innovation in the country becoming competitive and we all need like we all have too much debt growth is the best antidote for antidote for everything and so having a growth strategy is good for a country and it's good for the lower income people and this training stuff is maybe the most important is get training jobs that first job as a first rung in a ladder creates dignity you know more home household formation and I think countries have to do more of that because if they don't you know you you can have a tough time but do do you think the UK economy will change under labor I I don't know yet but I was I was happy with what they were talking about we had Rachel Reeds come to our conference too that they're all talking from The Playbook we need growth simpler regulations uh more Capital formation more capital investment mean property taxation because that's the way to help our whole country and all our citizens so that is what we should all be doing um Jamie Diamond we talk around you know India all the time is this a decade for India and and does it somehow counterbalance China for you know World growth yeah look I think India has done a very good job and you know when you look at India yes it it should have a very bright future I'm not saying as a counted of China but a very bright future and I think we should all be reaching out to India that you know they have to stay not line because they're kind of where they are in the world between Russia and China but you know they're a democracy they're a natural friend of America and the Western World and we should all be helping them and they they've made a lot of changes there infrastructure uh uh transfer payments 700 million people bank accounts that are going to be very good for that country so what does that mean for JP Morgan well we're not we're not in the retail business there but we will you be in the future we have 60,000 employees there we got big campuses high technology uh and we're expanding our Trading our research our investment banking yeah we're there in a big time can you talk to me a little bit about JP Morgan and how you mean you've had a number of high-profile departures how does that change actually the way you focus you your business and how you run things going forward not at all nothing zero if you were to buy anything what would you buy oh that's different look we we we have we can't buy Banks you do know that so you know you could buy a European Bank could you I I wouldn't even try I think the American Rel would hate it I think The Regulators here would hate it even if they said go ahead and do it I'd probably be in courts and things for a year and a half huge distraction to my own company I'd rather just say we want to add clients uh in this country and clients in that country We'll add bankers and technology and branches it's just a better way for us to grow okay but if there's if you could buy anything I mean not a bank I can't tell you but you're thinking of something yeah we always look at stuff yeah what we're not looking at any major Acquisitions or anything like that technology right now if you look what we're doing we're adding literally in C we have investor day next week we're adding retail and wholesale branches we're adding them in the United States we're all almost all the major 100 cities there now we're adding Commercial Banking all over Europe and Asia we're adding technology around payments and even a blockchain called Onyx to move data and maybe move money one day we're constantly invest we have 200 people 2,000 people in Ai and machine learning 400 used cases on the way to probably 800 I know so if I speak to you in five years how how much bigger and how much different probably be speaking to a fake diamond who's just answering questions an avatar an avatar yeah do you think about technology a lot yes all the time every meeting we have this has been true my whole life when we have any management meeting your technology agenda is on the table that includes AI Cloud uh just more analytics um what are you doing to do things better faster quicker for clients digital you know huge amount of Digital Services integrating them better automating them better but that would change I mean that that will change I guess the the heart of banking do does that mean that you'll see more winners and losers because of the technological abandonments so technology has always changed the heart of banking moving money holding money advising money raising that won't change and you have to do that according to rules laws regulations by country what it'll change is how you deliver it so like right now you go on your phone and you can move money and buy stocks that wasn't true 20 years ago so yes everything you do will change to the technology but you'll still have to move money budget raise money uh make investments Etc so you know the core won't change but will it CH regulations may change that too obviously so in in the US so again would would a trump presidency be more favorable to to Banks when it comes to regulation you know I I don't I don't know I mean you know I I am unhappy with the amount of rules and regulations coming out today I don't know what a second administration of either one would do I'm hopeful that they focus on growth which good for the citizens was good for the country uh and I and I I would help anyone I can to do that for my country I'm quite patriotic about that and I do think you need to in terms of serving I think you need no no helping oh helping as as the bank it's good to get that clear exactly okay Jamie D thank you so much for joining us that was of course the JP Morgan chief executive officer
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