저자: ChuckCarnevale · 외국인
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결론: 현재 S&P500은 고평가 상태이나 개별 대형 배당주(시스코·BMS·머크·암젠)는 상대적으로 저평가되어 향후 몇 년간 시장을 이기기 쉬울 것이라는 주장. 전반: S&P500 블렌디드 PER 24.68로 고평가 판단(적정 PER 15, 정상 PER 17.55). 시장 전체보다 개별 종목 선별이 중요하다고 강조. 시스코: 2011년부터 배당 시작, 배당수익률 3.41%, 신용등급 AA-, 부채 22%. 저평가이며 정상 PER 13 기준 연 약 7% 수익률 가능성 제시. 장기(12년) 비교에서 S&P500과 총수익 비슷하나 배당소득은 약 2배 우위. 브리스톨마이어스: 2000년대 초 정체 후 최근 성장 가속(성장률 약 21.68%). PER 10, 배당수익률 2.88%, A+ 등급, 부채 50% 미만. 정상 PER 18 회귀 시 연환산 수익률 45%를 넘을 수 있다고 제시. 배당소득은 S&P500 대비 우위. 머크: 제약주 정체기 후 최근 성장 가속. 현재 저평가 대비 S&P500 완전가치 수준. 2011년 이후 배당소득 우위, 총수익은 S&P500이 소폭 앞섬. 배당 성장 목적이면 머크가 더 낫다고 평가. 암젠: 배당 성장률 높으나 최근 둔화. 블렌디드 PER 16, 이익수익률 6.1%로 다소 고평가. 과거에는 저평가 시점 매수로 S&P500 대비 우위였으나 현 시점에서는 13개 종목 중 매력도가 가장 낮다고 평가(본인 보유 공시). 리스크/조건: 평가 가치가 유지된다는 가정 하에 판단. 과거 수익률 비교 중심의 내용.
다듬은 글
hello dividend king subscribers this is chuck carnevale co-founder of fast graphs the fundamentals analyzer software tool of course one of the founding partners here at the dividend kings and you know this is a series of articles i've been doing where i ran a screen using mega cap stocks looking for mega cap stocks using the joel greenblatt magic formula for identifying stocks that could beat the market now keep in mind joel greenblatt's primary motivation was beating the market and that's a good motivation a lot of people that's all they think about is beating the market but as a dividend king sponsor i think more about producing more income than the market i think that's a much easier task to create and a much more lofty goal now having said that i'm also going to point out here as i go through this video that currently it's i believe it's going to be easier to beat the market over the next five years than it has been over the last 10 years and let me see if i can illustrate that for you by going to our fast graphs tool here so first of all i've got the s p 500 here and those of you who are familiar with fast graphs on fast graphs recognize that this orange line is evaluation reference and it's being drawn here at a p e ratio of 15 which is historically a normal fair valuation reference now we also have the normal p e for this time frame which is 17.55 so what what i'm basically saying to you is that these are the ranges that the s p should trade at if it was either really attractively valued fairly valued or at least within normal ranges what i want you to see here is that and despite the fact that we've had the covid crisis here which has you know changed the estimates for the s p 500 for net for this fiscal year dramatically they were higher than that just a few months ago you know we had this original flash crash and now this normal enormous rally but the point i want to make is with a blended pe of 24.68 the s p 500 is in my opinion significantly overvalued but as i always point out it's a market of stocks and not a stock market and so all stocks are not overvalued which brings me then to what i'm going to be covering in today's video this is the magic formula selections i if you recall from the previous parts of this article i came up with 30 stocks i rejected 17 of them because they didn't really fit what i consider to be the criteria for dividend king subscribers and so you know what i've done is i've whittled that down to 13 stocks and i covered four in last week's video and i'm covering the next one i'm doing this in order of dividend yield highest to lowest so this week i'm going to be looking at cisco bristol myers merck and amgen now what's interesting here is i do want you to notice that three of the four just happen to be in health care because again not only is it a market a stock it's also a sector of stocks different sectors have different valuation levels and one of the things you'll find here is that it's very technology is actually a very highly valued sector you've got apple microsoft trading at very very high valuations however you got cisco here that's actually attractive and i'll show you that here in more detail in a moment and then we've got the three healthcare stocks two of them are pharmaceuticals then of course amgen which is the largest biotech these are all extremely high quality companies double a minus rated or better we got one at a minus one at a plus and i also want you to notice they all have reasonable levels of debt with the exception of amgen you know i like to see 50 or less debt but in today's low interest rate environment a lot of companies are borrowing more anyway let's go ahead and look at each of these individual stocks now one at a time and let me illustrate why i think they're more attractive than the overall stock market from the ability not just to outperform the market but from the ability of being able to generate more dividend income than the overall stock market now when i start with cisco here i'm going to shorten this time frame dramatically because what i want you to notice is cisco did not start paying a dividend until 2011.
and you know from that point in time you can see that their dividend has grown very nicely so if i look at performance this is a period of time when cisco was reasonably valued it grew at about 6.3 percent it's reasonably valued now this is based on using the normal p e for this time frame of about 13.
it's below the theoretical fair value 15 p e ratio that i often talk about with an earnings yield of 6.66 which says the earnings yield to 7.57 and of course the dividend yield based on yesterday's close is 3.41 it's double a minus rated with only 22 debt i like all of those attributes but let's compare the performance of cisco versus the s p 500 over this time frame the most important aspect here is the fact that the dividend income even though the company just started producing a dividend has been actually greater than the s p now in this case i also included a year where the company did not pay a dividend so let's shorten the graph one more time now a couple of things happen when i do this and i want to make sure you you see clearly one is i actually have a better starting valuation but i'm now covering the point where cisco is paying a dividend as the s p has paid a dividend in every year that i'm covering now when you go to this level you see a much different picture cisco has generated roughly almost twice as much dividend income as s p not quite but close over five thousand versus two thousand eight hundred dollars i also want to point out that the company's now in virtually a dead heat if you will from a standpoint of performance and these are very very good years for the market notwithstanding the fact i do want to remind you that the market itself is actually dramatically overvalued at this point in time but if i go back and measure this apples to apples and so if i go ahead and look at the time frame where you know i'm running a 12-year graph on cisco i'm going to go ahead and shorten this now to a 12-year graph on the s p we had the s p attractively valued cisco was a little better value that's part of why we've got this cl that's what i call dead heat but we're also measuring the s p overvalued where cisco is now undervalued so the contrast here are important valuation matters and it matters a lot now having said that if cisco were to trade at this normal pe going forward it would generate a seven percent annualized rate of return whereas i showed you earlier and i showed you in the written portion and i'll go ahead and show it again if i did the same type of analysis for the s p and i'm being more generous here we'd actually have a negative annualized rate of return a negative loss of about 8.7 percent in terms of growth total negative loss of minus four when you factor in dividends the point is this is not an optimum time to be investing in the s p i do believe it's an optimum time to be investing in cisco and so the point is beating the market on both the total return basis as well as a dividend income basis i believe is going to be much easier in the next four or five years for the reasons i've suggested here that it has been you know historically now i'm going to move on to bristol-myers i wrote a full article on this stock i consider this an extremely attractively valued pharmaceutical right now and if you really look at this graph closely i've got the full graph here the company went through a period of very flat growth for several years you know from 2002 actually if you go all the way back to 2001 where it had negative growth it was really very poor operating results but since if you look at the graph here from that point in time and let me see if i can hit it perfectly i'm pretty close you know now all of a sudden we've got a 21 21.68 percent growth and we've got a stock trading at 10 times earnings with a yield of 2.88 percent it's a plus rated and it has less than 50 percent debt which as i mentioned i like but the real key here is if i look at performance potential i've got annualized rates return of over 45 if the earnings come out as expected here and if the company just returns to a normal p e of 18 and of course you know if it used the p equals growth rate formula the numbers would be even better but going back to this if we run this again as a 12 year graph kind of like we did with cisco and measure performance from a standpoint of total performance we get growth underperforming the s p and again that has to do with the fact that the s p is currently overvalued as i mentioned earlier but once again we get significantly more dividend income than we saw with the s p 500 we have a much better valuation i consider much lower risk level here looking at bristol myers than we do looking at the s p 500 today so let's move on now merck is a very very similar story to what you saw with bristol meyer one thing that happened after the early 2000s is that these pharmaceuticals really hit a flat period there were even discussion that all of the chemically based pharmaceuticals had been discovered and that didn't turn out to be totally true in a way it did because these companies have moved into biotech just like amgen etc but i do want you to notice just like we saw with bristol myers although not to the same extent we have seen an acceleration of growth here in recent years so once again if i go back to that 12-year period of time to kind of keep this level we got merc coming in dramatically undervalued compared to the s p that was you know at least fully valued but we end up with significantly more dividend income investing in merck since 2011 and we did the s p and we've got a pretty comparable growth period the s p outperformed slightly and of course on the total return the out the s p did outperform a little bit but the point is if you're looking for dividend income and dividend growth merck would have been the better selection over that time frame so those are you know your two major pharmaceutical companies and i'll close this video by finally looking at amgen now there's a couple of things i want to say about amgen as i go through this this stock is one that i'm currently logged in so i want to issue that for disclosure but i've invested i've owned this stock for actually several years so i bought it somewhere in here when it was reasonably valued i do consider it fully valued today the blended pe is 16 an earnings yield of 6.1 you know i like an earnings yield of six and a half the stock is down a little bit today i would be just want to make the point that i would be wanting to buy this if i was going to add new money at a slightly lower evaluation but let's go ahead and run that 12-year kind of comparison the s p that i've done with the other three and look at performance now once again i'm going to be covering the entire time that amgen paid a dividend but i'm also dishing them by only by having one year here where they didn't pay a dividend so if i compare even that level amgen still outproduced the s p 500 on total income and interestingly enough it because this is one of the more growthy stocks of the four that i've shown here today it outperformed the s p on a growth potential and also then on a total return so it's been an out performer all along but a lot of that has to do with the fact that it was undervalued versus fairly valued and it's only slightly overvalued today where the s p is actually in my view dramatically overvalued so you know valuation matters and it matters a lot now these are all the kinds of dividend growth stocks that i you know like to see amgen has grown their dividend at a very high rate but you have to call out a couple of these numbers here so if i shorten it just to work the last you know what i'll call more reasonable years we still see over 20 growth but notice the dividend growth rates have slowed down some and of course with the valuation being a little pricey here you know i would consider this the least attractive of the group i've shown you i do consider it one of the better companies in the group i showed you the only thing i'm really objecting to is valuation i hope you got a little got something out of this video you know i missed evaluation valuation matters i think one of the big advantages we have with these this particular set of companies that i've shown in this article is we've got much better valuation than the market and frankly better growth with most of these stocks that we see in the market so beating the market over the next four or five years should be a lot easier than it has been not just on an income basis which i think these stocks will continue to outperform more more dividend income which is a very i think reasonable goal and relatively easy goal to accomplish but more importantly they're actually poised out produced on a total return anyway that's my take based on valuation and assuming that nothing changes you know if you like this video give me a like you know hit the bell if you want to see future videos like that on my youtube channel in addition to this dividend kings offering we offer here i want to thank you all for watching and everyone have a safe and healthy and prosperous year going forward here and let's have a good weekend thanks for watching this has been chuck carnevale i'll talk to you next week
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