저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 기업 이익(EPS) 성장률이 분기 9~10%로 애널리스트 예상(6~7%)을 상회. 신용 성장 회복 시 소비 개선 기대하며 3~4분기에 이익 효과 본격화 전망. 디왈리 무렵 신고가 가능성 언급. 국내 자금이 강해 외국인 이탈에도 시장 상승 가능. 외국인은 인도 비중을 낮게 가져가 향후 유입 반전 시 '바주카' 효과 예상. 이익 성장 15~20% 시 PER 22→25배 가능성. 인도는 10~15% 복리 성장 시장으로 평가.
다듬은 글
Tagal, what does that mean for the markets as well? You've been on record now saying that after that initial spurt postco, the earnings growth has kind of come off a little bit and the real wealth only happens when we move to 1,500 to 2,000 rupees EPS on the nifty. Does that happen in the next couple of years sir?
Yeah. uh so we at about uh 1,100 kind of EPS 1100 rupees EPS now whether so I think we stagnating at about uh 9 10% this quarter actually is better than what the analyst they expected that is at my end our analysts were expecting about 6 7% and actually turn out to be 9 to 10% of the earnings growth so clearly analysts are really behind little behind the what to expect and as you said PMI and other things are somewhat better oil is holding out at 65 67.
So I think the lot of uh uh you know back backdrop is very good just that little bit of pushion from the credit growth uh credit growth particularly that will lead to the better consumption but credit growth is yet to pick up and there's no reason why it will not pick up as the uh as a RBI and even the finance ministry they're on the job to uh to see that credit growth picks up and as a lower rate lower rate and lower prices of the products I think consumption will pick up.
So, but then we have to have patience. 6 7 months it might take but so my sense is by by the time it is third or fourth quarter you'll really see impact on the earnings growth and but then markets will be smarter because companies will be working 3 months 4 months in advance. So the mood mood is going to be much better.
uh so I I won't be surprised if the markets start going to new highs more just around Diwali time and once I mean I think on the day of uh announcement of uh GST actually uh when you say that okay from today onwards instead of 28 it is 18 I think numbers will be very different the index will be very different now where it will go how much it will go domestic flow is so strong and foreigners are kind of not interested in India and I don't think they'll be interested because for whatever reason global reasons they may not be interested in India because the valuations don't fit into their scheme of things and they'll keep missing out on India because India's domestic flow is so big that we'll be able to take the market ahead on on the back of earnings growth
in the past you've told me Mr. can that happen over the next 3 years. Yeah. Uh it looks like uh you know because we are running ahead so fast that they they want to catch up. I whenever I go to Singapore, Hong Kong, they all tell me that they love India. They have whatever little they have invested uh some guys they have left.
How do we reenter? I mean I said India is a decadal story. I mean it's a compounded story and uh I mean bereft of any any kind of recessions and all there is a slowdown but there is never a recession kind of situation. So it's a it's a market which is very compounded anywhere between 10 to 15% per year and very with a very limited draw down unless there's some global problem.
So uh but then uh you can't be be in an hour because at when it will explode nobody knows. So uh so I think uh they will come back. Of course they sold at 20,000 25,000. I think they have to come if this earnings blast happens post Diwali. I think they may relook at it. But uh looking at the kind of underweight they are in u I mean I believe there was some note that uh uh 60 65% of the FIS are underweight on India.
So that is also creating another bazooka kind of situation that whenever they turn they will everybody will turn positive and at that point of time domestics also want to buy and foreigners also wants to buy. So what is going to happen? So I think if the earnings pick up quite possible P will also go up.
So if earnings comes to 15 20% kind of growth next year say 26 27 yeah I think the P multiple might go from 22 to more like 25 or so. So that kind of a situation is also possible.
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