저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 애플은 아이폰11과 5G 교체 사이클로 '슈퍼사이클' 초입이며 주가 400달러까지 상승을 전망한다. [핵심 주장] Dan Ives는 애플 주가가 이미 80% 이상 올랐지만 아직 재평가(rereading) 초기라고 봄. 중국 판매가 예상보다 10~15% 상회한다고 점검 결과를 제시함. [근거 수치] 현재 설치 기반은 약 9억 2,500만 대, 업그레이드 기회 창이 열려 있다고 언급. 아이폰 수요 전망은 약 1억 9,000만 대. 목표가는 400달러이며 현 주가는 약 300달러 수준. [서비스 사업] 서비스 사업이 주당 약 15달러의 가치를 더할 수 있다고 평가. [리스크·조건] 슈퍼사이클의 진위는 9~10월에야 확인 가능. 연중 내내 순탄하지는 않을 것이며 중간에 속도 조절(speed bump)이 있을 수 있다고 인정. [타 출연자] Darian Ani(Evercore)는 목표가를 315달러로 상향. 앱스토어 매출은 12월 분기 약 18~20% 성장으로 추정하며 서비스 20% 성장 기대에 부합한다고 봄. [실적 전망] 12월 분기 매출 가이던스는 전분기 대비 약 36% 증가 중간값으로, 2019년 12월 사전 경고 대비 200bp만 높아 기대치가 낮은 편이라는 평가.
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okay Dan so I'm gonna have to push back because you're more bullish on Apple and I gotta understand it so there's a little ton of news about Apple in the past few weeks or months just some great execution so isn't it riskier to buy the stock here given how the multiple is expanded look in my opinion right now you're looking at a super cycle for Apple and in my opinion when I look at what's happening in China ten to fifteen percent above expectations I think we're just in the start of what's really gonna be a rereading of the stock you know I ultimately look right now you look at the services business that can add $15 per share but it all comes down to the supercycle what we're seeing the install base right here I think we're only halfway through a rereading an apple which is why I view the bull case now is 400 hours per share and I expect a strong being raised from cooking Cupertino going into next earnings don't round up and say the stocks at about 300 now 400 you expect it to move up better than 30% but on what news because we're not gonna know if this is a true super cycle until like what September October probably at that at the earliest I mean it's just not gonna hold up that well throughout the year until then I viewed as a two part sort of you I mean iPhone 11 right now if I look that's gonna probably about five to ten percent above expectations then in fundamentally you look at the next phase going into 5g that's gonna be the second half of the cycle so I view it as it's gonna hold up well because right now we're looking at a hundred ninety million units in terms of what we see for iPhone and I when in terms of all of our checks especially in China I believe right now China 510 percent above expectations it's going to be a one-two punch you can maybe have some speed bumps here and there but in my opinion a year from now the stock is a four in front of it so stay on the fact that almost all of the movies an apple of the patch there has been multiple expansion I mean you talk about the fact that we're in the midst of this rewriting right now what do the new goal posts look like in terms of fundamentals and how investors need to be assessing the stock well I think it's a combination I think look a lot of investors have definitely missed the sort of run here on Apple and I think you look at a stock up 80% plus you know many will say is all the good news baked in I think it's a rereading but I think the key number is right now 350 million is 925 million install base right now in a window of an upgrade opportunity that's the key you going through a 5g super cycle with iPhone 11 I think that combination is how you see numbers move up and a rereading that combination is how you get to 400 hours in our opinion all right I meet Darian Ani of Evercore also with us he raised his price target to 315 or 300 $15 a share over the weekend but I mean I believe you you also went from strong buy to just garden-variety buy here so I wonder now is the time of year when we typically get from Apple a sense of how revenues on the App Store did between Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve New Year's Day do you think we get those numbers is it a bad sign if we don't what do they need to say if we do yeah you know what I do is aggregate on the apps or our sense the December quarter was up about 18 to 20 percent high teens can arrange the u.s.
was probably up in the low 20% range so I do think the apps is growing in line that services expectation of 20% growth Apple has been scaling back the degree of information they keep giving investors of inconsistently I would imagine if they have if they had to disclose the apps or data between the Christmas and New Year's timeframe they would have already done it so I would say it's unlikely we get them now but based on our own data we think that number and aggregate for December quarters tracked in the high teens I mean as we look forward to earnings in the next couple of couple of weeks I mean is this a name that's price for perfection what what Penza if it doesn't meet those expectations that are out there on Wall Street right now I mean I wasn't being up eighty percent last year there's a lot that surprise into the story already you know if you don't meet expectations study doesn't be a negative reaction is gonna be disappointing for people but the part of which stress is if you look at the December quarter guide the set of numbers that are out there Apple basically guided December quarter revenues up about 36% sequentially at the midpoint what's notable is that's only 200 basis points better than what they did in December of nineteen when they negatively pre-announce so I do think the bar is fairly low in the context of how well the iPhone 11 and the air part in the variables category has done for them so far you
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