저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 장기 복리 관점에서 시장 수익률 약 15%를 기대하며, 단기 시장 방향 예측은 불가능하다는 입장. 지수 전망: 2030년 Sensex 20만 포인트 전망이 연 15% 복리에 해당한다고 언급. 백신 접종·경기회복·실적 개선 등으로 상향 가능성은 있으나 15%는 시장 수익률이며 그 이상도 가능하다고 말함. 수익 실현: 큰 수익을 낸 투자자에게 별도 조언은 불필요하다는 입장. 성공 후 조정폭은 30~40% 정도 가능하다고 언급. 투자 철학: 비전·용기·인내가 필요하며, 좋은 시기보다 나쁜 시기에 투자를 유지하는 인내가 중요하다고 강조. 가격(price)은 누구나 알지만 가치(value)를 이해하는 것이 핵심. 신기술 기업: 신생 디지털 기업(Zomato, Paytm, PolicyBazaar 등)의 고평가·적자 문제에 대해 명확한 답 없이, 시기 선택보다 꾸준한 투자 시작이 중요하다는 취지. 섹터 전망: 신규 기업이 10년 내 시장가치의 25~30%를 차지할 수 있으나 포트폴리오는 기존 기업 비중이 여전히 클 것이라고 언급. 특정 섹터 강세 전망은 구체적으로 제시하지 않음. 리스크: 단기 조정 시점은 예측 불가하며, 시장 타이밍은 불가능하다는 입장. 특정 리스크 요인은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
i wanted to actually ask you if we are going to get a higher compounded animal growth rate more than 15 because i remember you earlier in this year saying that you expect the sensex to touch about 2 lakh mark by 2030 and by cagr calculation it's 15 from the current levels but looking at the past eight odd months like you know 50k to 59k on the sensex already and we're looking at you know pace of vaccination economy recovering earnings getting better macro factors contributing do you think that there is a chance that we could also see a higher compounded rate and do you think these targets could also be revised upwards you don't need this 15 is a lot you'll be blessed i can tell you this you can't count your money it is so big 15 is very large see 15 is the market return that doesn't mean that anybody is stopping you that's not the ceiling you can make 30.
i'm quite sure when i was young and small and you know kind of fearless i was i must have made about 28 29 but now in a larger base we will make maybe 15 plus plus minus two three percent so clearly uh for the early movers the guys who are coming with few lakhs few thousands they will definitely make much more than fifty percent uh if the market gives 15 i think they'll make more like 20 25 okay and i remember you reading your quote somewhere which says sell your diamonds but not your stocks but i want to ask you that what should investors who are sitting on handsome profits over the last one years some have made hundred percent some have made even 500 in some cases in small caps or mid caps what should they do and how do you ensure that your need for return is not turning into greed you know what is the right time to exit and book your profits out they don't need your advice and my advice they're smart guys you know how many stock market uh success is the most difficult thing in the sense that once you get success in the same that you are a crore has become five crores or 10 crores or 20 crores then you i mean then the maximum correction can be 30 40 so you are sitting on a lot of money and in the process you learnt it so i don't think they need to the successful people they need too much of advice i think the people who are sitting completely outside of it outside of the stock market system they need they need hand holding and some kind of cajoling i know how do you see in a stock market what do you think vision courage and patience so people have i mean uh uh i mean our job is to show the garden path of what has happened in last 30 40 years with our experience and what can happen in next 30 40 years so that's the job some people get it some people don't get it second then courage having understood do you have courage to really buy you know i can't do anything about it if you don't if you understood things and still don't execute it's a mistake of permission or whatever so you have to do that correct then third thing is the patience do you remain invested in the market good time bad time invest patience is required not in good time good time everybody remains invested it is the patience with a bad time yeah because markets will go up and then by very nature it will come down when it comes down don't call up anybody just just have a drink and go to sleep so that so that's so cool i'm sure all the millennial investors are loving this interview so you know you have to have a lot of patience so long as so it's a it's a track which which will be not straight it will be going up and going down you should be ready for that roller coaster ride but don't leave the ride otherwise the fun of the roller coaster itself is a fun you know so it must that fun is in the right fun is not in the up or down absolutely now so for you for someone who's been a true blue value investor you've advocated always like you know buy good companies run by good management at available at a good price but we are in the age of uh disruption how are you analyzing these new age digital disruptors like zomatos whom we are going to see paytm policy bazaar many of them are at steep valuations and despite making losses are they worth investing for the long period from say you've been saying 10 20 years 30 years from now uh you know at this nascent stage should one look at investing in these yeah yeah see it's a i mean whenever you go to haridwar in ganges it is always cold yeah so it is going to be tough in the sense that but you have to take the dip you have gone there you want to make that 12-15 component on your savings for many years to come so that is not possible if you stay out it's that simple and there is no right day or wrong day every day is the right day even if the markets are high you have to start your journey you have to pay your tuition fee and even if the market goes down by 30 40 when you buy say initially you buy a lack rupees today and market goes on okay fine at lower end again i'll buy but i have bought it for five years or ten years let me stay on you know so that is very important nobody can guarantee you that you not make loss sure and that being see the whole mindset is i should not make laws somebody else will make the laws yeah okay and going forward from here is there any particular segments that you are bullish on for the long term which will be the biggest wealth creators of course during covert we've seen the idea sector perform over the last one decade we've seen several uh you know sectors really take the first step or the front row banks uh you know talk about autos talk about all of these sectors but going forward from here is it better to stick with the old dinosaurs of the industry is it good to stay with the disruptors what will make money yeah so what happens is that uh i mean of course the bulk of the companies remain same but next uh every year actually few new companies keep coming and of course so uh in next say after say 10 years about 25 30 percent uh of the value of the market will be new companies so you you don't have to stick to old only but large portion of your portfolio will be coming from the old companies and even in the old companies all of them are not 100 years old or 20 years old there are companies a five-year-old the company which are 10 year old the companies which are 20 years old and there are changes and management in the world companies so the old companies are looking like new companies so you have to build your portfolio looking at everything just because the company is new it is not great and just because it is old it is not slow and outdated no so in investing you can have a good mix of as much gold as much new but it all depends on your understanding of where is the value price gap price is what you pay listen to this price is what you pay value is what you get and price and value are not true same thing and knowing the price has no advantage everybody on this earth knows the price by the nanoseconds people know the price very few know the value okay so the smartness isn't trying to understand underlying value of the company and then the moment you understand some understanding estimated you think that this company could be worth 1000 crores or 2000 crores but the price is only gonna cross let me buy some like that you start learning then slowly okay if i were to ask you if there are any red flags big risks that you see to the market journey that we've seen so far of course everybody has been saying there's been the correction is long overdue it may come five percent ten percent we don't know when uh but what are the risk factors that could lead to a correction if at all after this journey i don't know about the markets i cannot i cannot figure out whether market will uh close today positive or negative we can't figure out and hence i don't for for my investing purpose where the market is headed tomorrow day of course i want the markets to be higher in next five years time or 10 years time yes without that we also don't make too much of money but so that's a market part of it so i don't bother about on a day-to-day basis how the markets are going to do and actually it is not knowable i i firmly believe that nobody can figure out where the market is headed in short term and hence why bother about it you know so i don't time the market if i get dividend of 10 crores today i will invest it today only but if see the time to buy in the market is when you have the money time to sell time to sell your investment is when you need the money i mean i'm talking about entry and exit of the market you must enter the market when you have the money you exit the market when you need the money otherwise you can keep selling buying stocks here and there but broadly that's that's what has been uh practiced by me i have not planned them up so it has given me not only a lot of peace of mind but also a very comfortable compounding of my wealth over a period of time yes absolutely and i remember that i heard you on clubhouse and i wrote an article based on what i had listened to and a very interesting thing that you had said is not not you know even if the brahma vishnu mahesh trinity were to come together not even then one can time the market so that was something very very interesting
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