저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 메타(페이스북)는 리세션과 현금 소진 위기를 거쳐 경영 재정비가 이뤄지면 큰 상승 여지가 있지만, 현 시점 확신은 낮고 소량 티저 포지션만 보유 중이다. 마이클 버리의 메타 관련 발언 정리: 버리는 2022년 1분기 약 1,800만 달러 규모로 메타를 보유했다가 거시환경(금리 인상, 밸류에이션 압축) 우려로 대부분 매도했다. 저커버그를 'FLK·ASD'(자폐 스펙트럼)로 언급하며 메타버스(리얼리티랩스) 투자에 집착한다고 비판했다. 메타버스 투자 평가: 리얼리티랩스 매출은 전년 대비 약 600백만 달러에서 300백만 달러로 감소했고, 핵심 광고 사업(약 300억 달러) 대비 1~2% 수준으로 미미하며 기업가치를 훼손하고 있다는 주장이다. 수익화 전략: 머스크의 트위터 인수 사례처럼 비용 절감 및 새 수익모델(유료 블루체크 등)이 거론됐다. 메타는 클릭투메시징 광고(연 환산 약 90억 달러, 트위터 규모의 거의 두 배)와 WhatsApp 클릭투챗(15억 달러 이상, 전년비 80% 성장)으로 신규 수익원을 개척 중이라고 평가했다. 시나리오 1 - 리얼리티랩스 분사: 310~400억 달러 현금을 분리 법인에 넣어 핵심 광고사업과 분리하면 주가 재평가 가능성이 있으나 실현 가능성은 매우 낮다고 봤다. 시나리오 2 - 최악(가장 유력): 경기침체로 광고 매출이 둔화되며 현금 유출(분기 FCF 약 100억 달러에서 2억 달러 수준으로 급감)이 발생하고, 대규모 구조조정·저커버그 역할 축소·외부 CEO 영입 가능성이 제기됐다. 주가는 급락 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 시나리오 3 - 틱톡 금지: 미 의회가 틱톡을 금지하면 메타 주가가 40% 급등할 수 있는 콜옵션성 호재로 제시됐다. 당시 FCC 위원 카(Carr)의 틱톡 관련 발언이 근거로 언급됐다. 밸류에이션: 현재 시가총액은 약 2,600억 달러이며, 과거 피크 FCF(2021년 약 400억 달러) 회복 시 5년 내 100~400% 상승 여력이 있다고 봤다. 현재 FCF 배수는 약 7배에서 6배로 하락했다. 출연자 전망: 메타 투자는 비대칭적 기회이나 저커버그가 문제를 인지하지 못하고 있어 확신도는 낮고, 리세션 압력은 애플·아마존 등 여러 기업에서도 확인되고 있어 단기 실적 악화를 우려한다. 보유 포지션은 일부 축소한 소량 티저 포지션. 리스크: 리세션에 따른 광고 매출 급감, 리얼리티랩스 추가 투자 확대, 틱톡 규제 불발, 경쟁 심화(트위터·틱톡).
다듬은 글
Facebook stock absolutely crushed down around 70 causing some investors to wonder will it recover will Michael burry arguably one of the greatest investors of all time he's chiming in on facebook slash meta so I will talk about his recent posts I will also share my thoughts on the different paths that Facebook may have in the years ahead one where you're talking about potentially hundreds of percent upside the others are rocky roads if this hit that like button so let's understand what Michael burry has to say well first he actually used to own facebook slash metastaki owned around 18 million dollars in the first quarter of 2022 he subsequently blew out of most of it because he was concerned about the broader macro environment particularly with Rising interest rates fed policy tightening resulting in potentially lower valuations and we haven't even seen seen the second shoe to drop which is arguably lower earnings so so far you've just seen valuation compression you haven't seen earnings compression yet which could be another leg lower so he wisely blew out of it after his owning it in the first quarter of 2022 so arguably missed a lot of the downside saving himself so what has he had to say about Facebook or Zuck in particular he said Zuck is an flk ASD guy I did not know what this is it was so I had to look it up flk is funny looking kid and ASD is Autism Spectrum Disorder so he's saying Zuck is on the Spectrum but he goes so am I I get it but I know what I am and my obsessive interest in life dog species building guitars building computers always pained me because I recognize their uselessness if you don't know it doesn't pain you but pains others and so it is so what is he saying so he's saying that Zuck is on the Spectrum and he doesn't even realize that he's on the Spectrum and so he has this obsessive Focus over meta changing the company's name you know putting in 10 billion dollars is a huge mega bet I mean think about allocating let's say 50 billion dollars over five years to something where it's like hey I don't even have legs type of thing and it's just it's it's just Monumental and he's saying well when you're on the Spectrum you can get hyper focused on things that are useless and he's in fact I was saying Zuck is focused on something that's useless he's saying that reality Labs might prove to be useless and we'll talk about what the number suggests so far and if it if you don't know if you don't know you're on the Spectrum you don't know you're focusing on something useless it doesn't pain you because it's like hey I'm gonna you know build guitars and you know I'm just focused on that but if you're aware of it then it does sort of pain you and then you change your behavior at least in theory and so that's you know so that he's calling that out there he also adds do we have another couple Elon musks hey who can do to meta and Google what Elon Musk is about to do to Twitter now here he's obviously talking about Elon musk's recent purchase of Twitter where I think it's really two different comments one is hey let's cut all the fat out of these Mega advertising businesses because they could be incredibly lucrative so come in there who has a you know zero day approach and say what do we actually need to run this business extremely well so Elon Musk is arguably doing that right now we will see I think the range of possibilities for Twitter is quite wide where you could see Twitter and bankruptcy and like in your head or you can see it like where it's just tremendous like it had a tremendous Revolution so we will see I'm very curious to see how that plays out but I think he's also making the call that Twitter's exploring additional paths to monetization for example recently Elon Musk has been talking about eight dollars for all in terms of getting your blue check mark he talks about how Twitter's current Lords and peasant systems for who has or who doesn't have a blue check mark it's BS power the people but for eight dollars a month so he's trying to encourage people to sign up for eight bucks a month to kill the spam to kill the Bots he's also saying hey maybe this could be a way to reward content creators as well you know to have some sort of Revenue share because you know you'll be working with Publishers ultimately saying hey if this is what musk is doing with Twitter is there something that Facebook can do that's let's say in addition to advertising or different approaches towards monetization well I would argue Zuck is already very very clever with trying to figure out new ways to monetization for example in the most recent call they were talking about click to messaging ads which lets businesses run ads on Facebook and Instagram that start a thread on messenger WhatsApp or Instagram Direct so they can so customers can communicate directly um or businesses can communicate directly with customers directly and this is one of our fastest growing ads products with 9 billion annual run rate they'll also talk about how you know what the effectively the click to add on WhatsApp or the click Tock talk on WhatsApp just pass 1.5 billion growing 80 percent year over year so they have explored really clever products and this you know this effectively click to messaging ads already nine billion dollars this is already almost double Twitter size so that's just a point of reference for what they're doing effectively through their messenger app the question is what happens to Facebook what happens to metastock from here I do own a teaser position in Facebook stock I have trimmed it a bit you know through my journey at one point it was a larger position but I did trim it when I sort of saw the different paths ahead so let's talk about the types of paths one of which is that they're reality Labs their metabets start working out at this point I'd argue they have a lot of cool Tech but it's not really showing up in the numbers it's not really showing up with the traction where you can see their revenue in reality Labs actually declined meaningfully year over year now this is probably due to the timing of new you know systems issuances and they'll come out with new products for the Oculus and then it'll get it'll be bumpy but overall it's still immaterial like even even if you ignore the fact that it declined significantly from around 600 million to around 300 million in the quarter and their core advertising business is closer to 30 billion I mean you're looking at like one percent of the business two percent of the business like it's immaterial at this point and it's solidly detracting from the fundamental value and so I think you know at this point there really are very few signs of it taking off in the way that you saw let's say Facebook in early days where it's like hey this is it might only be a hundred million dollar Revenue but it's growing at a hundred percent you're not even seeing that now and you're just seeing this monster bet so the return on investment you know isn't there it's just sort of like hypothetically maybe it's there in the future and by the way what's the risk that you know Zuck does all these things to sort of get something to Marketplace and it turns out to be be the Myspace equivalent and then maybe Apple swoops in with an upgraded product that just looks cooler and they win or it's because of their ecosystem and they don't have to do this 50 billion dollar bet they sort of say oh this is interesting what they've done let's sort of try our own version of it so I look at this and I think one way that this stock could re-rate is if they spun off reality labs they could take their 30 40 billion in cash put it to reality labs and say hey this is now a separate organization if this does not get enough traction over the next three to four or five years this is it and it's separate from let's say the core advertising business so we'll see you know what happens at this point it's extremely unlikely that they'll do it I think another very real path and this is sort of the path of Maximum pain for meta and this is part of the reason why it's not a huge position for me it's a teaser position is I think you're gonna have a recession you're starting to see that data and it they Facebook which has historically been just a complete Cash Cow historically generating close to 10 billion dollars in a given quarter most recently generated only 200 million dollars and they're talking about accelerating some of their Investments next year so I think what you see is potential recession where they move into a cash burn and when you're in a cash burn I think that's going to be a crap your pants moment for Zuck where he goes whoa It's stinky what am I going to do here and he's going to find religion in that moment and at that point it's sort of saying I need to make some tough choices about the vision of my company because there's a chance that I'm risking the whole thing over this bet I'm risking this you know this Cash Cow of an advertising business because I'm burning so much cash with reality labs and what would normally be a cash cow is in the short term being impacted by a recession and so do you want to make sure you survive to another day or are you going all in because you have this vision and so I think Zuck finds religion in that moment I think that's the point where it's just you see the massive layoffs you see that it you know his vision gets scaled back dramatically and potentially even you know he brings on new CEO you know maybe you have something like that where he's sort of chastised and said okay you know what I'm going to step back to sort of a chair role talk about the broader Vision but in terms of actually allocating these bets you know sort of recognizing how off the rails he's gone and that that's a real possibility now keep in mind if he's successful with reality Labs which I'd argue the indications are very limited at this point then I hope you know I get to eat my words and that you know and I and I'll call out and I'll say I was wrong but at this point the most likely path in my opinion is you see a recession you see huge cash burn the stock absolutely craps the bed and he's sort of saying at that point wait a second cash burn isn't sustainable what am I going to do to to put us on a sustainable path like where do we go from here and I think at that point you are looking at a much better outcome because there's more intelligent Capital allocation I think another possibility I mean this is one of the roads that are actually quite Pleasant is that you wake up and the US government has done you solid you know you see talk about FCC commissioner Carr I think uh saying look I don't believe there's a path forward for anything other than a band when he's talking about tick tock you know he said there simply isn't a world in which you could come up with sufficient protection on the data that you could have sufficient confidence that it's not finding its way back into the hands of the Chinese Communist party now in recent quarters Zuck has called out Tick Tock effectively saying yeah we have been losing share to tick tock effectively engagement with users and if users aren't engaged they're losing advertising Revenue the most recent quarter they said yeah we started winning back that that market share but this past year it has been a thorn in their side if you have the US government step in do them a solid maybe you know zuck's paid off enough uh you know Senators congressmen I believe in America um to effectively ban Tick Tock uh do you have that 20 40 jump in Facebook or metastock in a very short order you know I I bet you could see something like that with the setup here where if you saw actually Congress moving to Bannon then you could see just a huge rally in meta stock so we'll see that's sort of like a call option now when I think about the core business of Facebook I'm looking at a business that's still increasing still growing over time still very solid and it's down from the last time I did a video talking about the third quarter earnings it's down further so it's gone from like seven times free cash flow to six times now when I say free cash flow I'm talking about Peak free cash flow what they did in 2021 of around 40 billion currently trades a little under 260 billion so I'm thinking about this I'm thinking if they're able to get back to their prior free cash flows you are talking about I mean easily 100 upside maybe closer to 400 upside over five years so that is dramatic upside potential for Facebook if they're able to survive the coming year or two and we're effectively that means they survive a recession they don't blow up with reality labs and they also are able to sort of compete continue to compete against you know the the new maybe either Twitter becomes more competitive or they just you know successfully beat out Tick Tock so I'm very curious to see how that plays out that asymmetry is why I own a teaser position that said I don't have a high degree of confidence partly because as Michael burry suggested it seems like Zuck isn't even aware of the problem that he's just sort of saying hey I'm going all in on this and it's just like you know Michael burry saying hey I'm on the Spectrum so I will do these sort of useless things that I'm just obsessively focusing on such as building my own guitars I recognize that it's not really useful but it's just something that I just focus on or knowing dog species like hey that really lights me up hey did everyone teach his own you know you live your own life you only live once you know find things that you enjoy but if you like obsessively put all your resources to it and you can name every dog species and that's what you're living for maybe you want to go home and rethink your life um you know that's sort of the The Challenge and I think what Michael burry saying is yeah Zuckerberg hasn't had that finding religion moment he hasn't had that moment where he goes okay this was a crazy bet but we're gonna fix this and if we fix this then you're talking about huge dramatic upside and so far what I'm seeing is recessionary pressures I'm seeing that from a variety of different companies Apple Amazon a lot of different companies talking about global macro economic pressure is increasing I view this as just starting you know the interest rates have moved up and you're just starting to see that flow through the economy so I think you're going to see worse results for Facebook and when that happens the challenge of hey what do we do with increasing cash per and so I think very bumpy ride potentially but maybe you wake up one day and you find out woohoo tick tock's been banned you know meta's up 40 so very curious to see how it plays out from here if you have thoughts on meta or Facebook stock please make a point of sharing them below
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