저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 투자 사고법 다섯 가지를 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없다. 멍거의 성공은 뛰어난 지능보다 정신 모델(mental models)에서 비롯되었다는 주장이 중심이다. 첫째, 역발상(inversion): 멍거는 기상 예보관 시절 조종사를 죽이는 가장 쉬운 방법을 역으로 생각해 위험을 피했다고 설명한다. 투자에서도 기업이 실패할 수 있는 경로를 먼저 분석하라는 취지다. 둘째, 겸손(humility): 자신의 역량 경계를 아는 것이 중요하며, 멍거는 자신의 능력 범위 안에서만 움직인다고 말한다. 셋째, 전문화(specialization): 한두 산업을 깊게 이해해야 하며, 워런 버핏(보험), 조지 소로스(거시경제) 등 투자자마다 강점 영역이 다르다는 예시가 나온다. 넷째, 단기 변동성 무시: 주식 하락을 견디고 장기 성장에 집중해야 하며, 버크셔 주식이 세 차례 50% 하락해도 개의치 않았다고 한다. 다섯째, 단순함(simplicity)과 독서: 단순한 사업 모델을 선호하고, 독서를 통해 타인의 경험에서 배우라는 메시지다. 영상 전반은 자기계발과 투자 원칙 전달에 초점이 있으며, 종목·지수·금리·환율 등에 대한 구체적 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
what caused the financial success was not extreme ability you know i have a good mind but i i'm way short of prodigy and i've had results in life that are prodigious and that came from tricks i just learned a few basic tricks from people like my grandfather what were those kind of now everybody's leaning in wanting to know it's too late for you all guys charlie munger has stated on several occasions that most of his success as an investor and in life overall is due to mental models which he uses to analyze different situations as they appear in his journey of life he is convinced that the impact which he has created in the world of investing has nothing to do with his intelligence these mental models help him in thinking critically and act as a shield which help him to fend off costly mistakes by using these mental models in the domain of value investing he has achieved enormous success that can be gauged from the fact that he currently has a net worth of 2.4 billion dollars he has not only been a source of inspiration for many aspiring investors like mohanesh babrai but he will also be remembered as one of the best investors and thought leaders of all time so today we will be exploring five ways in which he critically analyzes the situation these mental models have helped him in making key decisions while investing as well as other areas during his lifelong journey as an investor mentor and a successful entrepreneur so we start with the most prominent mental model which is inverting which means that we invert the problem which we need to solve there are all kinds of tricks that i just got into by accident in life one i invert all the time and when i i was a weather forecaster when i was in the air corps and how did i handle my new assignment being a weather forecaster in the air force a lot like being a doctor that reads x-rays it's a pretty solitary you're in the hangar in the middle of the night and drawing weather maps and you're killing pilots but you're not interfacing with a bunch of your fellow men very much and so i figured out the amount i was actually making weather forecasts for real pilots i said how can i kill these pilots now that's not the question that most people would ask but i want to know what the easiest way to kill them would be so i could avoid it and so i thought it through and reversed that way and i finally figured out i said there are only two ways i'm ever going to i was in the ferry command the only two ways i'm going to kill a pilot so i'm going to get him to icing his plane can't handle and that will kill him or i'm going to get him someplace who's going to run out of gas before he can land because all the airports are sucked in and i just was fanatic about avoiding those two hazards and if kobe bryant had somebody like me he'd still be with us it was so stupid to kill yourself that way and but just that basic i may have learned that from my grandfather my grandfather would say when i'm swimming you'd say swim as long as you want but stay near the shore well but you can laugh but he was a very wise man what i'm hearing you say is that you as a discipline look at what the risk is on the other side of the situation and you avoid that that's one of the rules right well it's it's just it's it's like a lot of practical problems in algebra if you invert you can solve it easily if you don't it you can't solve it exactly right and so of course i had that trick very early and and most people would say how can you tell us what you'd do to save india or to help india and of course i would approach it differently i'd say what could i do which would most easily hurt india and approaching it in reverse that way i got better results you look at the vulnerabilities yeah yes and and i have a whole bag of tricks like that so charlie munger explained the way he used inversion while working as a meteorologist people often develop a bias and start to seek information which is aligned with their beliefs so even if you find a business which you think has a durable competitive advantage remember that your beliefs could potentially be just one side of the coin you should also invert meaning critically analyze a business with an intent to find out the various ways in which a business might fail to compete in the marketplace or could lose its competitive edge you need to understand if the industry is on the verge of disruption will its products or services remain relevant in the coming decade could the mode of the company be breached via internationalization or by its competitors so whenever your friends or colleagues mentioned the reasons which they believe will be detrimental to the success of the company which you have shortlisted thank them instead of being unhappy about it they are doing you a favor by providing you with the information that will help you in making a better investment decision the second mental model which he uses is humility or to realize that a person does not know when he has a limited knowledge about an industry or a company humility i've frequently said that when they passed that out i didn't get my full share and that was a serious problem when i was young and i only cured it partly by becoming very rich and generous it takes both to overcome a debate like that so the young people in the room don't copy this if you're not willing to pay the price well i i don't believe that if humility means that you know the edge of your own competency yes and you aren't arrogantly stepping over the boundary i'm very good at that but within my area of competency my best friend would not adore me for my humility yeah well i'd redefine humility as knowing what you don't know yes well both lauren and i are very good at that one of these guys at the berkshire meeting from one of the foreign publications said why do a couple of guys in a little place in omaha do so much better than all these powerful minds and great institutions and i said well i think warren and i know the edge of our competency better than other people do and that's humility in the umbrella sense and that is a very important thing to know i say over and over again it's not a competency if you don't know the edge of it you are a disaster if you don't know the edge of your own competency warren frequently says i'd rather deal with a guy with an iq of 130 who thinks it's 125.
a guy with an iq of 180 that thinks it's 200. that second guy will kill you and and so it is very important to know the edge of your own competency so one of the main factors of success in investing is to know one's circle of competence and invest in companies which are in the industry which one knows inside out i firmly believe that in investing you don't have to understand every industry otherwise it would take you a lifetime to understand different industries you need to thoroughly understand one or two industries in depth remember that the devil is in the details and surface level knowledge is not enough as an expert in software architectures born global firms and business ecosystems i like to analyze the software companies and try to understand how they are uniquely positioned in the market how likely it is that the company will survive this fast evolving industry and how can it create value for users across the globe so once you know your domain of competence and the limit of it it will help you in avoiding bad investing decisions since you won't be investing in businesses that you don't understand it will also make you aware of the situations when you are drifting away from your circle of competence so always understand the business models of those companies that fall within your circle of competence this will take your investing game to the next level specialization is the safest way up for most people and for that reason the surgeons know more and more about less and less and that's that that's what gets rewarded and if you have a nasty fistula in your colon you do not want a surgeon who's good at proofs or political science you know it's it's it's understandable how how the world rewards this specialization i never liked it and i loved picking up new ideas being a great a passionate reader and so i decided i'd make whatever living i could make doing what i like to do which is sort of romping over a whole field i do not recommend it to other people because the safe way up is to know a hell of a lot about something so here charlie munger emphasizes on the importance of specialization even though he himself does not specialize he believes that specialization is the smart thing to do he mentions the importance of specialization in the career of a person and that is surely applicable in investing also and specialization is not just limited to finding good businesses in certain industries but it also defines the scope as well as the investing strategies which we employ so for some great investors value investing might be the only card they play in the game of investing as we all know that warren buffett knows the domain of insurance very well george soros understood the key macroeconomic drivers very well bill ekman knows the market psychology and has the ability to shortlist good growth companies as well jamaat palihapathiya is famous for sporting gaps in the market and investing in innovative companies or technologies early on michael bury is well known for gauging the sentiment of the markets ray dalio has a firm grasp on macroeconomics charlie munger understands china very well benjamin graham understood distressed businesses very well and jack bogle understood long-term market trends very well and the third important point is don't care about the short-term volatility remember that the market is driven by emotions you should try to focus on the long-term growth of the company well i am continuously invested in american equities and but i've had my berkshire stock declined by 50 percent three times and i don't it doesn't bother me that much so as a value investor you should buy companies whose stocks are trading well below their intrinsic value since your goal should be to buy quality businesses at good price when market offers it to you for a discount and if you know that the price you paid for the business is more than the value which you got it will keep you calm in the turbulent times or market crashes since market crashes are a reality so always focus on the long term and don't bother much about the short-term volatility the fourth important thing which he talks about is to always keep things simple charlie munger is a big fan of investing in businesses that have simple business models and don't require an einstein level iq to run them this is what he said in his interview but what is it that what is your sort of philosophical rule base for when you're looking at organizations to invest in or acquire well we have a very peculiar way of looking at things we want to buy something that's intrinsically a very good business meaning that an idiot could run and it would do all right and then we want that business which an idiot could run successfully to have a wonderful person in it running it and if we have a wonderful business with a wonderful person running it that really turns us on and it works very well and now we we do make exceptions but not many and and it's a pretty simple philosophy warren sometimes says you have to choose good person or good business you know what he says this is not politically correct he says good business he wants something that has such an such tremendous strength that i had a friend when i would practice law and he said if it won't stand a little mismanagement it's not much of a business and we like businesses that stand a lot of mismanagement but don't get it so that's our formula and it and we can't make it work perfectly but it certainly worked better than most people's so the whole idea is to find a business with a solid and resilient business model that is run by a great person but even if at some time in the future if the business is run by a person who is not very competent the business should still be fine since it has less complexity therefore investing in simple businesses is important since every investment decision has potential risk reward and uncertainty when you invest in simple businesses with durable competitive advantages this reduces the risk as well as uncertainty for example investing in simple businesses will relieve you from the adverse effects of uncertainty in times such as when some important heads of department managers or let's say other key people in the business leave and the final trick with charlie munger talks about has helped me immensely in my investing journey and this is the habit of reading a lot let's listen to what he said in his interview don't you read a book a day something like that like well maybe not i read and i skim a lot yeah i i do the accidents of life you give me books i i i tore into books and perfect strangers give me books lots of them and and i almost never buy a book anymore when i was young i used to order them from the book review columns of the new york times and now it's torn to books comes and i just select what i want and i'm amazed at how well some of these people are reading me and what has that done to your life i think well it's it was perfect for me i don't think you can take every bookish little boy and turn him into a billionaire by petting him on the head and say read all you want johnny but if it were that easy there'd be more billionaires but but it it enormously helped me and i think reading once you've learned it reading and arithmetic you can take in so much and you can take it on your own time schedule if somebody's talking to you he may be telling you something you don't want to know you already know it's too hard or he's going too fast or too slow yeah but when you're reading you can just take it take it's just it's just god's gift if you if you're into self-education there's nothing like reading and of course people who do a lot of it have an enormous advantage so the main point over here is that we should learn from the experiences of others every book that we read has years or even decades of experience of someone very wise the awareness of investing strategies the mindset as well as the knowledge of the key mistakes which others have made could be a gold mine that will help us in reducing the risk and enhancing the potential rewards during our investing journey it is very important to think of life as a growth centric experience and the learning process never stops it is hard to imagine that many people stop reading or do it very less the moment they leave universities so keep on learning keep on improving and keep on making new strides so that you can realize your full potential not only in the area of investing but also in other areas of life this will also increase your ability to earn more personal development is the key differentiator that separates mediocres from protagonists in any area so these were charlie munger's five key tricks or mental models that forced him as one of the best investors of all time let me know in the comments below would you like me to do similar videos in future furthermore what sort of topics would you like me to cover on this channel in the future if you found this video useful please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm and also consider subscribing thank you very much for watching i really really appreciate it you all are awesome and as always i will see you guys in the next video you
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