저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 시장 공포가 과도하며 좋은 뉴스를 무시하는 단계이니 펀더멘털 좋은 기업을 저평가 구간에 매집할 때라는 주장. 시장 심리 및 거시 상황: 2022년 들어 기술주 급락, 기록적 인플레이션, 암호화폐 폭락, 유가·주택 시장 우려로 심리가 매우 약세라고 진단. 우크라이나 전쟁과 경제전: 러시아에 대한 경제 제재를 '경제 전쟁'으로 규정하고, 항공기 부품 공급 중단, 석유·LNG 결제·보험 차단 등으로 러시아 생존을 압박 중이라고 설명. 핵전쟁 같은 극단 시나리오는 확률이 낮아 투자 판단에 반영할 필요가 없다는 입장. 고용 지표 및 연준: 비농업 고용 호조와 임금 상승 둔화 등 긍정적 지표가 있으나 시장은 무시 중. 파월 연준의장은 3월 25bp 인상은 확실시, 이후는 데이터 의존 및 신중한 접근 예상. 경제 제재 비용과 화폐 발행 의지를 감안하면 연준이 완화적으로 돌아설 가능성도 제기. 투자 아이디어: 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거·마즈 바브라이 등 유명 투자자들이 공포 국면에 매집 중이라고 언급. 멍거는 알리바바, 바브라이는 텐센트와 메타를 매수했다고 언급하며 메타는 PER 약 10배로 저평가라고 주장. 브라질 핀테크 뉴뱅크(버핏 투자) 등도 기회로 언급. 리스크: 러시아·중국 주식 급락, 우크라이나 전쟁 지속, 중국 기술기업 규제가 하방 요인. 장기 전망은 낙관적이나 단기 변동성은 남아 있음. 암호화폐: 온체인 데이터상 장기 보유자(스트롱 핸드)가 증가하고 기관이 비트코인·이더리움을 축적 중이며 이 추세가 지속될 것이라는 견해(마이클 세일러 인용). 출연자 전망: 시장이 과매도 상태이며 내재가치 대비 크게 할인된 우량주 매수 기회로 판단.
다듬은 글
i actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news and we're so negative and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to keep moving forward right um we are not in world war three by any measure are we in not we are not anywhere near that okay and so i just think it's important for people to take a step back and take a really deep breath welcome ladies and gentlemen to this video the market sentiment has been very bearish since the start of 2022.
majority of the tech stocks have taken a nosedive inflation is at a record and crypto market has fallen off the cliff the soaring gas prices and the housing market crash have further fueled the negative sentiment so the blood is in the streets people are panicking and as per warren buffett be fearful when the others are gritty and be greedy when the others are fearful if you know before the end of 2021 when the markets were in euphoria and everyone was thinking that stock prices will keep on going up jamaat palihapathiya was the only investor who warned us that the tax talks are very overpriced and many companies have ridiculous evaluations he gave the warning in the last quarter of 2021 and recommended that investors would be much better off by selling off their positions since the valuations don't make any sense to him and many people thought that he was delusional now when the markets are panicking and stocks like alibaba meta and other companies are available for cheap it is good to listen to chamathia please stick till the end of the video since i will give you my own opinion about the current state of the market and also the bitcoin on chain data also a small percentage of my viewers are currently subscribed to my channel if you enjoy watching investing and personal finance content please consider subscribing it is free and you can always change your mind i will be grateful for your support there's a 17th century phrase that says adversity makes for strange bedfellows and i think what happens when you are in the middle of enormous adversity um you know you need to do whatever it takes to win right that's i think why silence is so patriotic and viewed so heroically around the world now um he's trying to defend his country and his people i want to take the counter of david what you said i actually think we are at war but it's the most positive form of it in the sense that we are learning a different kind of warfare now if you think about how we used to fight up until basically uh the persian gulf war it was armaments and tanks and then that evolved in the middle east because we had to fight insurgents and you know uh urban terrorism in many ways right i think this is a way in which we are learning that there's a different kind of warfare as well which is fundamentally economic and so you know it may not take the same shape as drones and missiles and fire and guns and bullets but i think you would be foolish to make the mistake that we are now not at economic war with russia and at the end of the day the outcome is the same which is either they survive or they don't survive and everything we've done points to that we are willing to fight um and we are willing to put a lot of economic collateral um and chips on the field in order to win this battle so i think in that respect we are kind of out of war did we are we on it is this a nuclear level economic uh decoupling is like everybody has a historical framework where they want to go back to how the natural path of escalation works and i think this is a very different form of escalation that we need to consider and i think that this is the kind of warfare that may actually you know be the the way in which wars are fought in the future you seize assets you shut off access to supply routes you make it impossible for anything to work so you know i'll give you a simple example a form of warfare is what's happening right now in the sense that you know for example the russian skies are completely clear not just because that you know no uh external airlines will necessarily fly there but because boeing and rolls-royce and ge and airbus basically pulled all of their support all of their parts right we've gone to war with respect to their petroleum and lng supplies how not necessarily because we won't still stop payments which we are still enabling but because the actual refiners won't take the oil on the lng because they then would be subject to sanctions the people who would ship that are no longer taking those uh payments or those those barrels of oil into the marketplace because they can't get insured by international banks so in all of these various ways we are actually at war and i think you know maybe this is the way war should be fought in the future because it'll save thousands of lives in in the more classic way of describing how lives are sacrificed for in times of uncertainty you actually want to be deploying so you know uh i announced what was it last week i think it was a solar deal the solar deal you know i put 228 million dollars into this thing and then i did another deal i put 45 million bucks into this thing you guys know about which we haven't announced yet yep so um but other than that i've been literally uh white-knuckled uh i don't like to open the stock app there's no point take some dramamine before you open your morgan stanley stock up the stock and what's so funny is like my bloomberg terminal which is right beside me here on my desk i have not logged into it okay put it in a drawer unplug it yeah there's just no point like at the end of every week i get a report right kind of like our p l and i just look at the top line like conor always sends me the top line is like you know and in the last like eight weeks in a row we've lost one percent we've lost two percent we've lost three percent the time that wishes he lost one percent i celebrated i got so drunk that night i was like finally i sent you guys his tweet from morgan housel who is a great guy and he has this fabulous tweet he says this he he it says this the shock cycle and it's this beautiful cycle assume good news is permanent oblivious to bad news then you ignore the bad news then you deny the bad news then you panic at the bad news but then you accept the bad news and then you ignore the good news you deny the good news you accept the good news and then you assume the good news is permanent that starts the cycle if i if i could just put it out there i don't know today if you guys saw non-farm payrolls but we had a huge print in um unemployment like really great print meaning like a lot of employers were able to find people to take jobs it was a big number but the interesting thing about it was we didn't see uh wage inflation tick up with it and if i had to look at that and if you actually look at a bunch of the earnings reports that have come out in the last three or four weeks i actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news and we're so negative and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to um keep moving forward right we are not in world war three by any measure are we not we are not anywhere near that okay and so i think i just think it's important for people to take a step back and take a really deep breath but i think that there's a lot of good news out there there's a ton of good news and for people who don't know the term we're ignoring some people don't know the term print when we say there's a print that is just a colloquialism in the financial markets that something was formatted for printing previously and you've got good news so an official report is sometimes called we got a product i agree with i think what's going on is there is some underlying good news right but there's this overhead of a small chance of something catastrophic happening so how do you price that in right it's it's it's uh it's like a one outer right yeah yeah exactly but this guy's quads were set over set yeah it's a one hour to one hour to the apocalypse basically if this tiny probability thing happens the the game is over so you know so it doesn't matter it doesn't right like it doesn't matter if it's the cost of your house does it matter if there's a nuclear war that's right this is this is the thing that people underestimate is like that's not a that's not a risk that one should be hedging in any way financially right at that point the only thing that matters is the health and safety of your family and your friends but really your immediate family like can you take care of them and make sure they're safe and so you know if you're if you're investor in the financial markets or you're building a company managing for that externality in my opinion i'm not sure makes a ton of sense because i don't think you can manage to that externality you have no impact on it it's something it's a controlled scenario yeah so i think you have to manage to the 99.999 percent of normalized outcomes and i think right now there are some what's called green shoots meaning like some positive news in the world and some positive data by the way the other thing that we saw today was or this week was jerome powell and you know the jerome powell testimony was also in the middle of massive amounts of bad news some actually pretty decent good news which was he said he's going to raise by 25 basis points in march everybody knew that right so we took the 50 basis pointer off the table but then he was very clear that they were going to be data driven and in the language of the federal reserve what that essentially means is like we're going to be patient and wait and see and if you couple it with what i said before which is the economic cost of these economic sanctions towards russia can be calculated and i think that we have proven a willingness to print capital and money and so if you put those two things together i think there could be a real possibility that powell becomes very accommodative and you know he and biden and the entire administration come together with europe and everybody else and say get the money printer back going because we are we're going to stand the line on these economic sanctions and we're going to you know sort of soft land the economy here because we think there's recessionary risks such amar pali apathya is not the only savvy investor who is reminding us that in times when the uncertainty and doubt are at their peak we should prepare to accumulate the stocks of solid businesses which have great competitive advantages or mores his opinions are validated by the actions or investing moves of other top investors so we can see that even though the market is panicking warren buffett charlie munger and manesh babrai are loading up on the stocks of companies that are victim of market sentiment charlie munger invested heavily in alibaba recently and mahanesh babrai invested heavily in tencent stocks mahanesh babrai is also bullish on meta stocks even though the price has taken a nosedive since the release of the earnings report of fourth quarter of 2021 meta stocks are very undervalued currently and it is not trading at a p e ratio of around 10 which is a fantastic opportunity to buy and there are lots of opportunities in the stock markets that could be potential 10 beggars for example one such brazilian fintech firm is new bank in which warren buffett invested furthermore the russian stocks and many chinese stocks have plummeted due to ongoing war in ukraine and the chinese crackdown of tech companies but the long-term outlook looks fine and like many stock market crashes in the past this time will definitely pass these are the times when one can take advantage of market sentiment and buy quality stocks for prices that are way below the intrinsic value furthermore the on-chain data suggests that the strong hands or long-term holders of bitcoin are increasing and institutions are also accumulating ethereum bitcoin and other digital assets this trend is expected to continue as per the opinions of experts like michael seller so these were the thoughts of chamat palihapathiya about the current market state and the negative sentiment of the market i hope that you liked the video please let me know in the comments below what do you think about the current market sentiment and also do you think it is a good time to accumulate the stocks of those tech companies which are trading well below their intrinsic value let me know in the comments below would you like me to make such videos in the future if you found this video useful please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm and consider subscribing that would mean world to me thank you so much for watching i really really appreciate it you all are awesome and i will see you guys in the next video
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