원문 보기
Hello and welcome to Kagra Market daily program on Nifty and Magnet analysis. I'm going to hang around for a little bit so that we can have more people in and once we have more people in, we'll start with today's analysis in Ernest. My god, I have to say the recovery from 2200 is way sharper than the fall to 22,000, right?
So, it's sort of mental, but um I mean there's no but it is what it is. Okay, I think we have enough people. We have some comments trickling in. Let's see what people have to say. Hi, hi, hi, hi, hi to everyone. Crazy market. 22,200 coming in December. Tomorrow is bang day for all of us. Pump. Ather results are solid.
Ether but I like ether not the stock the company and maybe I also like the stock but then conflict of interest rain matter company know the founder can't really you know nice guy though very nice guy u okay so let's see what the market. Okay. So, Nifty has formed a big marosu candle. Obviously, I mean I mean what is there to say there, right?
It is what it is. Although the non-cash number was uh cash is what propelled another 80 points. So I have very mixed feelings about the last leg and we have another problem that is we are now very close very very dangerously close to our targets. So, I didn't expect it to happen so fast, which is why I thought 23800, but now the number could even be 23,900 because, you know, it's going so fast and then maybe even 24,000.
But the problem is this, right, boss? Let's face it. We rallied 1,400 points on green candles. Like 1,400 points. I'm I'm just going to pause that. 1,400 points one way all green no red uh super rally with any hardly any draw down like you could say these two candles were breathers but at from 23 let's count from 23500 even from 23500 this rallied 1300 points non-stop so now the question is um what exactly are we uh smoking If we are u expecting like what are we smoking if we are expecting a straightaway you know um road to 23800 I don't know right uh of course nobody knows what is happening but uh yeah like Ramak Krishna is saying market pumps in 5 days sells off in 50 is this is usually a pump pattern but that has been what is happening in the last couple of years right a very rapid pump and slow dump because that's what benefits the sellers so this is happening on much lower volumes like if you are somebody who wants to chip cowy mal you want pump to happen on the least volume possible in the fastest time frame and you want the dump to happen aram say like you want higher levels to remain for a lot more time that's when you'll have the maximum dump right so yeah that so see like what are we looking at nifty here I don't know because this is now a question of um you know there's a scene in which superman goes in front of a locomotive and like stops the locomotive um are you going to try to stop a locomotive I have very mixed feelings about that strategy Um but let's face a few things.
See there was a sort of resistance at 23670 odd levels which is this gap right that gap was taken out today. So I don't think this is going to see maybe it can retest the gap but I I feel there is very little downside left. Uh I would probably say there is a lot of uh uh what do you say? Um there's not a lot of upside left, right?
Because this line or this line depending on how you draw it. I personally prefer the other line because this is just that uh they announced some fake trade deal news or something and then there was no trade deal but every news house and media house in the country the deal deal that was just BS man that is just deliberately screwing people right but anyway it is what it is but uh that this this is that candle right um see my problem is the max I'm seeing now this uh 24,000ish because of this trend line, right?
I don't want to if it breaks, of course, maybe we'll see um this gap getting filled. But right now, I'm absolutely cautious. Yeah, this is a little bit too much, right? Like because at the end of the day, this is a little too much. Now the other way to look at it is it can go and revisit this area again but I don't know if it will but we have to come to that later but as of now at least now the majority move is over.
Now it's a question of how much are you going to stretch it right? Um so let me just uh write that down. This is a question of how much you want to. So now, now this is not a question of uh Nifty forming a big bullish candle again, right? And let's look at Bank Nifty. I'll be surprised if it is forming.
Bank Nifty is actually forming a evening star of Bank Nifty forming forming a what is this candle called? It has some name right um I don't want to call it morning star yet because evening star because it needs confirmation tomorrow dogee gap up dogee so this could become an evening star um but we have to be cautious here right um so that is number one nifty and bank nifty both seem a little stretched but then there is Diwali and you know that can have a different kind of euphoria coming to people so we don't know but I don't want to buy into this anymore.
Of course, this is a bullish piercing. This is the confirmation. Let's see how there should be one more green candle at least is what technical theory says because support bullish piercing confirmation one more right. So uh rally is uh getting stretched but strong momentum this is riding as far as it goes and not to be shorted before it fizzles.
So basically I would like to ride this as far as it goes but I don't want to short it before. So no basically what I'm saying is no new longs. If you have exited some parts yesterday great as in some parts after yesterday which is today's open today's mid anywhere it's great. Do you want to enter new longs?
If I enter new longs I have only one problem. I don't know where my stop loss is. I can do some chiller trade like okay I'm going to enter here with this gap or I can say I'm going to enter with this 23 uh 600 gap etc. But the problem is I really don't know where to if I were to ride this I don't know where my stop loss is.
So I can't enter a new trade here. Right? Option chain has no meaning because expiry. But after all of this if you still believe market is not rigged please uh uh tell me what time you were born yesterday. I want to prepare your birth chart. Anyway, WhatsApp adoption data to like come on. If this is not rigged, I don't know what is rigged.
Okay. FI. Oh, even this change has no meaning. Let's look at futures. That is where interesting stuff happens. Oh, strong buying. FII bought 4700 CR in futures strong short covering. FII is there a block bulk deal today? Bought nearly 7,000 crores in cash. That's a significant number. Okay, let's look at everybody else.
S&P is slightly flat. NASDAQ is flat. IN are strengthening. IN 10-year bond is strengthening. Um very interesting. Dollar index is flat. Gold is uh I am very very tempted to short gold here uh for a target of 30 3600 maybe, but I don't think I'll have the fortitude to do that. Plus u if it breaks this trend line and goes above 4,000 then the short is over but it's very tempting but shorting gold in India's problem is that you have to manage the INR part of it.
silver maybe I won't short because it can give that bounce back to uh you know if we are lucky to we can get a second shorting opportunity maybe 57 or so who knows right um but let's see uh US government bonds are taking a beating today maybe it's because of the midterm who knows oil has fallen so um yeah this this resistance has come into See if it if this line breaks, right?
I'll just show you one parallel. Remember Nifty had a support which is this very steeply climbing line. Right? If when this line broke, we toasted roughly 2,000 points. Now oil is giving a similar structure. If this thing breaks, if 93 breaks, boss bull, oil might just crazy plummet, right? So, oil is uh becoming a very very interesting bet now.
But of course, the place to short dollar was at 104, but I don't think nobody shorted there. Done. Deepanka says four days back HNI started going long. They know something. While tinkering with order flow, the banker observed someone spending crank bro. Please send me a mail. You know my email ID. I would also buy some calls.
No, why you not tell me all? Sorry. But um but that's the catch, right? Um market will go to 2500 says haywire. Possible Democrats winning both and fiscal deadlocks and yield. Yeah, that is possible. If Democrats win, then the yields will go down because obviously oil will fall. LTCG rumor pumping the market so much.
Yeah, that's also true. Uh, okay. So, what's the trade? Dude, this is a tough one, right? Very tough one. Nifty can stretch to 24,000. All I can say is it's not worth initiating new longs here. Maybe best not to uh ride the last um leg to 24,000. I'm not saying it'll reverse from 24,000. All I'm saying is that 24,000 has resistance and it might pause at 24,000.
So these are two different things, right? Touching is one thing. Crossing is another thing or in the words of an F1 commentator catching is one thing passing is another thing. So this is catching if it crosses it is passing. So I'm not sure on such a rapid rally uh without any kind of consolidation will it break this or not?
I don't know. It's very tricky. But if it goes here and crosses 24,000 bars, then we are in for some mega mega rally. Okay, that that that goes without saying like basically if it is able to break this level, right? Expect uh you know that far ti to come in. But right now it's not far. I'm just watchful of this.
So the level is 24,000. Maybe it'll get tested. But how do you play this trade right? If you already have existing longs, of course, you can keep a trailing stop-loss and go all the way to 24,000. But if you don't have existing longs, then probably you are going to uh you you are best not to enter this to chase 24,000 because you're going to be chasing 200 points target, right?
With the stop of what? I don't know where is the stop of this trade. What if it comes back to 23,000? Um I don't know, dude. What if what if it comes back to 23 400? What will you do then? What if it goes to this swing high which is 23200? Like new trade here is very tricky and I can't really think of what's the new trade which I'll want to do here.
Plus Bank Nifty is definitely showing tiny signs of fatigue. So maybe I will sit this one out purely because it looks a little um tricky. Uh maybe it can stretch all the way to Diwali for sure. When is Diwali? Eighth number, right? But but yeah. Does it look like parabolic? Yes, it looks like parabolic kicks.
You know what is real? Okay. I I really mean it. I really really really mean it. Okay. I think I know who is this person. like the your comment of whoever made 3.5 crores reliance futures position the opening yielded him 30 32 lakhs I think I know this p person and I think his final P&L was 27 L what I can't believe is he went and posted it on Reddit but I'll just ask him is that you after this uh session but yeah um yeah he has some algo going bro like I don't know what is his algo but he has that algo going but Yeah, in fact this dude told me on uh Thursday you should buy Reliance.
So I said I said okay for you I will do this thing. Uh so kitties kitties Chhattis I don't know what this means is saying once 2300 comes I'll be comfortably short. I did say that but I'll tell you what has changed for me. What has changed for me is the fact that I thought this won't be a very parabolic rise.
I thought it'll say I say go see my trajectory to 23500 was this right and in this trajectory 23500 was hitting this um downward trending trend line what I did not expect this thing to do is go like this dude come on who can expect so that's the thing right it's very path dependent if it goes like sa s say then this is 235 500, right?
And that I I mean, of course, this is a very slow grinding, but but like, you know, um the the problem is this is not that 23,500. This is some very rapid you know, whatever happened happened while thing. So I am not very comfortable. See, basically even if you're shorting, you should see some reversal signal, right?
It's not producing any reversal signal etc. You're basically saying Nifty has given four candles of at least 1% every single day for the last 5 days. Tell let's go short it. That is the reverse of catching a falling knife which I don't think is a very prudent investment strategy um usually. So, so yeah that is our analysis for uh Suna is asking am I perma bear perma bear people don't start companies in stock markets uh there's no but if you're feeling that way you know um I'm sure you have your strong reasons But I'm not gatekeeping.
what if that dude turns out to be wrong, you know, like. But anyway, so I think um that is our analysis for today. We'll see you again tomorrow. Thank you so much for joining and as usual, please take care and keep
댓글 0