저자: UnStockableTrading채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 2800 지지 유지 시 2820~2830 재테스트 가능성을 봤고, 페이스북은 167.5 지지 확인 전까지 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 애플은 3월 행사 전후 목표가 상향 소식이 있어 루머 매수·뉴스 매도 관점을 제시했고, 185 부근 상승을 기대했다. 옵션은 ITM/ATM 위주, 최소 2주 이상 만기 권장. 엔비디아는 3756 부근까지 하락 시 평단 낮추기(물타기)를 검토한다고 했고, 마이크론은 반전 신호 후 하락 추세로 본다고 했다. 로쿠(Roku)는 55~58 하락을 예상했고, 아마존은 1680~1685 조정 후 반등, 1800까지 기대했다. 보잉은 350 목표를 언급했다. 전반적으로 단기 시장 변동성을 강조하며 조작적 움직임을 경계했다. 옵션 투자 시 만기 임박 상품과 금요일 매수를 피하고 세타 감소를 고려하라고 조언했다.
다듬은 글
hey guys, welcome back to on stock up, o trading. I hope you guys have a wonderful Thursday and a good trading day. Please share, subscribe, and like my channel. Today's going to be a long video because we have so many requests on the stock breakdowns, and some of you asked me how to trade options properly. Today we'll definitely look at SPX, then Facebook, then Nvidia and Micron, and then two more things I want to talk about: Apple, which I'm long, and how we all need to trade options properly. Before Apple, we need to add Roku, which was the dead cat bounce I was expecting today. So let's get started.
First, when you look at SPX today, it was very choppy, and I'd call it a consolidation. By the way, Joe, in my Discord group we do our live call-outs, everything is free with no PS, and we have a very friendly environment here. Today it was choppy because we rejected the 2,811 to 2,815 area, so we are consolidating and not going down. What's most likely to happen tomorrow, looking at my chart: today we tried to break to the downside but couldn't, and we closed in a sitting candle. The market is very manipulated, so you should know it's manipulative. Today this thing refused to go below 2,800, and as long as it holds above 2,800, calls at 2,800 to 2,808 are, to me, a kind of positive setup at the end. So one thing most likely to happen tomorrow is that we'll retest the 2,815 level, possibly go over there, and then come back down to where we nearly closed. Tomorrow our expected move on SPX is only around 10 points, so we're not expecting a huge move. Tomorrow we're only looking at 12.8 to 13 points. If we go over 13 points, or come within 30 points, that's expectable. So we're looking at upside toward 2,820 or 2,821 and the downside, which I don't think will happen. I think we might retest 2,821 one more time, because the market keeps rejecting, and then close at a strong point around 2,808.
Next is Facebook. I know there was some more bad news about Facebook after earnings, and then the stock dropped about 2%, 1%, half a dollar. Are you long Facebook right now? Here's the thing: look at Boeing today. Jobs data is out, but with this kind of news Boeing was supposed to drop even more, and yesterday Boeing closed down, which I called a pork chop. So today Boeing was down not much, about 1%. Boeing, in my opinion, is going to hit 350 at the 200-day moving average. Let's go back to Facebook. For Facebook we closed in a doji candle, a sign of indecision, if you want to call it that. What most likely could happen is that Facebook goes down. How much down I'm not positive, because I expect SPX to go higher tomorrow, and that could lift it. So you might see it open lower around 168. The support we're looking at is right here at 167. If we hit the 167.5 mark, it should bounce. I expect that for Facebook, since the overall market is lifting it. Facebook should be bought up just like today: if you look at Facebook this morning, the market was down, the market rebounded, and Facebook rebounded too. Tomorrow should be the same, because the market right now is very manipulated, so keep that in mind. Surely a bad news cycle is a death sentence.
The next one I'll be looking at, as a video I posted, has some pressure. This morning it was green, and I knew it was also becoming weak and could weaken further. Look at what happened today. I won't call this a bearish engulfing candle, but it's a definite sign of reversal. What most likely will happen is that in the video it comes down to around 163.25. If it stays there, it's going to bounce hard, but if that fails, we'll be looking at the 160 area. Around 158, I don't think it goes lower, because the market is not going to tank. So 163 to 162.5 is the area where I want to enter. Just make sure you're watching the one-minute chart, and make sure the 163 support holds over a longer duration. It doesn't go to 175 and eventually 180. That's my outlook on Nvidia.
Next, we need to look at Micron. I took half my position off today because it rejected the previous top at 39.70. That's when I took half off, and I said whatever I'm going to write I have to write. Micron does not look good right now, so I'm expecting a pullback. We've been looking at 37.56, and hopefully it doesn't get there. If it does get there and then rebounds, I'm going to average down on my April 2nd and April 5th calls. Right now I'm holding 10 and had 20, so I'll wait for confirmation first before buying more. I'm going to let my position stay there.
Next time we want to look at Roku. Roku was the dead cat bounce today, as expected. Look at this week's green candle. I drew this line right here, just look at it. We are going down. I'm quite positive Roku does this, with a weekly candle that could go down. What I'm targeting is at least 55. First we're looking at 58, then coming down to 55 as the candle closes. We're coming down to half of the retracement and eventually 55.
The next one we're going to look at is Apple, and why am I long Apple? There's a conference or an event going on next week, I believe on March 25th, and I think there's another event two weeks out, around March 20 or so. Analysts have been upgrading Apple over the past two to three days, and again today to 220. So right now what you should do is buy the rumor and sell the news when it gets close. This morning I added about 500 bucks on five contracts, roughly a 50% return in one day, and I'm still holding it, because I know the market will go up and Apple is one of my favorite swing trades. Apple to 180 eventually, let's say 185 tomorrow. I'll be watching Apple.
The next one we're going to look at is Amazon, and why not, these videos can be a little longer. Amazon rejected 1,700 again, so what most likely happens is that tomorrow it comes down to 1,685 and then rebounds. I'm still long Amazon because I want it to go to 1,700 and beyond. If you see Amazon break past 1,700 without any problem, this thing will run through the 280 MA and eventually go to 1,800. Right now just wait for confirmation of the drop to 1,680 to 1,685 before we see a rebound. That was the projection. You see, guys, this was projected. I do Amazon swing trades, so buy your options at least two weeks out.
I want to talk about how to properly trade options, since people ask me. Here's my rule. OTM (out of the money), ITM (in the money), and ATM (at the money). OTM is the cheapest, but that doesn't mean it's always the best. ITM and ATM are both highly expensive, similarly very expensive. So what I personally do: let's go back to Apple. You must have a mindset about what's going on. Say Apple opened at 183.24 and then went higher. It makes sense that it opened at 183.9 and hit 184.1 or so. Okay, so Apple opened and went up 3.9 or so, and I was wondering if it would go to 3.6 or something. I know it won't go to 190, but I'm not going to buy a 190 call, because that's too risky. What I did was buy a 185 call. It's not in the money and not at the money, it's kind of between, but not too far. Some people buy 190 or 200 calls because they're very cheap, but they don't get the best return, and when Apple goes sideways or down a little, out-of-the-money options are basically worthless. So what you should do is buy in the money or near the money. I never buy far out of the money because it's too cheap and too risky. I never buy options on Fridays, because you're holding through the weekend and you never know what's going to happen, and theta can decay your option quickly. When you compare different options, try not to buy ones with high theta. I also have another video already posted about the other Greeks.
With options, buy at least two weeks in advance. I never buy options that expire the same day or the same week. If you buy on Monday and plan to quick-swing them in two to three days, that week can work, but if you're not sure and don't have a mindset of at least two weeks out, it can hurt you. Time value decays as time goes on. If the option goes sideways or moves in the wrong direction, that decay works against you. I think that's clear. If you have any questions, comment and let me know, and feel free to like and subscribe. I'll see you in the next video.
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