저자: 미상 · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 경고를 인용해 미국 부채(34조 달러 이상) 증가와 법정화폐 신뢰 약화, 향후 약 18개월 내 경제 수축·부채 구조조정 가능성을 제시. 법정화폐는 부채 기반이라 인플레이션·디폴트 위험에 취약하며, 금은 부채에 기대지 않아 헤지 수단으로 권장됨. 달리오는 금을 포트폴리오의 10~15%로 권고한 것으로 소개. 영상은 금과 비트코인 투자 방법(ETF, 거래소)을 안내하고 제휴 링크·초대코드를 홍보.
다듬은 글
Ray Lio has issued a major warning about the high risk of inflation and debt crisis, recommending the purchase of gold as a safeguard. The world's largest high-value fund manager has been very forceful in his statements, warning investors that if you don't have gold in your portfolio, you know nothing about history or economics.
So, in this video, we'll analyze exactly what Ray Lio said and why the current economic situation is so worrying. We'll examine his analysis and forecasts for the future, as well as the opinions of other top investors, and most importantly, we'll see his recommendations and advice on how to protect ourselves against this potential crisis.
The United States' debt has already surpassed $34 trillion and continues to rise at a dizzying pace. In fact, as CNBC points out, it's increasing at a rate of one trillion dollars every 100 days, based on the latest data. Unfortunately, this isn't a problem limited to the United States; it also affects other economies like China, Japan, and Europe.
And it could have major global consequences, which is why more and more investors like Raay Leo and Paul Tudor are warning about this situation and encouraging people to take action. A few months ago, Raay Leo published an article titled "Do You Have Enough Non-Debt Money?", which contains some reflections that, in my opinion, everyone should know.
Good money is both a good medium of exchange and a good store of value that is widely accepted worldwide. The most recognized and accepted currencies worldwide are the US dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro, and to a much lesser extent the yen, and even less so the Chinese renminbi. These assets are held in debt assets, meaning they are backed by debt.
In other words, fiat currency equals debt. When you hold these currencies, you are holding them; you own debt liabilities, which are basically promises that you will receive a certain amount of money. This may seem a bit complicated to understand, but ultimately, the key takeaway from this idea is that...
Fiat currencies like the euro, the dollar, etc., are currencies that are not backed by any real asset. They are simply backed by the issuer of the currency, in this case, the United States government, and by the government's ability to meet its obligations and repay its debt to creditors. Bearing this in mind, and as Raay Lío points out, logic and history show us that when there are high risks that the debt will either not be repaid or will be repaid but at the expense of the currency's value, then obviously the debt and the currency—that is, the cash we hold— lose their appeal.
Since debts are promises to pay, when a government has a large amount of debt to manage, what usually happens is that the central bank prints money. This prevents a debt squeeze, or a contraction of credit, by devaluing the currency—that is, inflation. Regarding what Raay Lío says, the most important thing to keep in mind is that good money is money that is widely accepted by everyone, and very importantly, a good As a store of value, however, since fiat currencies like the dollar or the euro are backed by debt, when there is a risk of default or depreciation, these currencies lose their appeal because central banks tend to print more money, causing inflation and further reducing the value of these currencies.
In short, this means we have money that is essentially worthless, and that is why we must protect ourselves for the future. This is what Ray anticipates will happen in the not-too-distant future, according to his debt cycle theory. Ray Lio is concerned about what he perceives as unsustainable levels of both corporate and government debt.
This, coupled with aggressive central bank policies that are devaluing currencies, leads him to predict that in the next 18 months we will see an economic contraction and a restructuring of debt and finance that will catch many people by surprise, many people who are unprepared. This is what Ray Lio says verbatim: "We are currently in the final and dangerous phase with respect to the long-term debt cycle.
The levels of debt assets and liabilities are..." Interest rates have skyrocketed to such an extent that it is now truly difficult to offer lenders and creditors sufficient interest or interest rates high enough relative to inflation. What Red Ali foresees in this regard is a complicated scenario in which the US Treasury is forced to issue a huge amount of debt, such that the supply exceeds the demand.
This could lead to a significant rise in interest rates or a massive money printing by the Fed, which would significantly increase the currency's value. Meanwhile, Jamie Diamond, co-founder of GP Morgan, has also warned of the enormous public deficit and recommends acting as soon as possible. In a recent interview with Sky News, Diamond said he hoped the US government would focus on reducing its fiscal deficit—that is, the difference between what the US government spends and what it receives in revenue— before the financial markets force it to do so.
His exact words were: "The sooner we focus on this, the better. There will come a point where we will have a problem. The problem will be caused by the market, and then we will be forced..." to act, and probably in a much more uncomfortable way than if we had acted in the first place. And more and more major investors are warning of the risks to the US economy.
For example, Paul Tudor, the legendary investor, warns of the great danger, saying that the United States would soon end up bankrupt if they didn't seriously control spending. So the diagnosis for these major investors seems clear, but what about the solution? How can we invest and prepare for the possible debt crisis?
The first step is to know what money is not backed by debt so that we can then act. And going back to the Raid Lio publication, in addition to telling us about the problems with fiat currencies like the euro and the dollar, he also tells us the following: gold, on the other hand, is money that is not backed by debt.
It's like cash, except that bonds and cash are devalued by the risks of bankruptcy and inflation, while gold benefits from these risks. In fact, gold is held by central banks and other investors for this reason; in fact, gold is the third largest reserve asset held by... Its holdings by central banks are far above those of the yen or, for example, the renminb.
This point made by Raid Lio is very important because he emphasizes that while fiat currencies, which are backed by debt, such as the euro, dollar, etc., depreciate and collapse during times of crisis and inflation, gold, which is not backed by debt, benefits and maintains its purchasing power. He also adds that cryptocurrencies are also not backed by debt, and that he doesn't know of any other type of money that isn't.
However, some people think that precious metals or AR, for example, could act similarly since these assets are also not backed by debt, are transportable, and are generally accepted as a store of value. Raid Lio presents gold, and now cryptocurrencies as well, as money that is not backed by debt. He adds the following: when the financial system is functioning well—that is, when there is no debt or inflation crisis, and when debtor and borrower governments that print debt-backed money are fulfilling their obligations— Their interest payment obligations without printing money and devaluing their currency.
Therefore, debt-backed assets and other financial assets are good assets to hold in a portfolio. However, when the situation is the opposite, that is, when the financial system is not working well, then gold is an asset to hold. This is the main reason why gold is a good diversifier and why I have gold in my portfolio.
We have already talked quite a bit recently about Bitcoin, which is the king of cryptocurrencies and the new digital gold. So, if you want more information or to start investing in Bitcoin, I'll share the description here— information of interest for you to consult after watching this video. For now, let's focus on gold, which is the asset that Raay Lio most recommends to protect against a possible debt and inflation crisis.
Leaving Bitcoin aside, gold has been the asset among the major ones that has appreciated the most this year. Historically, it has served to protect against long-term inflation and as a refuge in times of economic crisis or periods of geopolitical instability. And despite the fact that inflation has moderated, gold this year has reached New all-time highs are surely due to market expectations that real interest rates may fall in the future due to a rebound in inflation, making gold a more attractive asset compared to other alternatives.
As Yardeni says, gold may now be a hedge against US economic actions, since after the US and its affiliates froze $300 billion of Russian reserves following the invasion of Ukraine, countries like China have begun accumulating gold reserves to reduce their dependence on the dollar and protect themselves from similar sanctions in the future.
But let's see what percentage of gold Raay Lio recommends for investment portfolios and what recommendations other super investors have. Jerusalem Post comments that, considering this scenario, Raay Lio advocates a minimum allocation of between 10% and 15% in gold in investment portfolios, as he believes gold is a crucial diversifier and a way to protect against currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Paul Thor Jones comments that... Inflation will increase regardless of whether Donald Trump or Victoria Harris wins the presidency, and he holds Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as protection. He mentions this because, in his opinion, neither candidate has an adequate plan to address the massive debt problem facing the United States.
All roads lead to inflation. I'm invested in gold, I'm invested in Bitcoin, and I think commodities are ridiculously undervalued. So I'm also invested in commodities. I think most young people find their hedge against inflation by investing in the Nasdaq. That's also been a great idea. As you can see, there's a common denominator among these big investors, which is, firstly, gold, and secondly, Bitcoin.
Although it's also true that Jones mentions investing in Nasdaq stocks and commodities because of their low valuations, let's see how you can follow this advice and invest in these assets if you're interested. The reality is that there are quite a few ways to do it, but surely the most convenient is to invest in them through ETFs or ETFs ( Exchange Trains Commodities) using your broker.
In my case... As you know, I use Mexem, which is Interactive Brokers' partner, for investments in ETFs and stocks because of its low commissions and because they basically have the largest offering on the market. So, for example, to invest in gold from Europe, an interesting option would be the Invesco Physical Gold fund, which at the time of recording this video has an annual return of 36% and costs of only 0.12 %.
Alternatively, another interesting option would be to use ETF shares, which also has a cost of 0.12 per share and has achieved a very similar return this year. However, please remember that this is not investment advice and that there is also a risk of loss, especially when we talk about short-term investments.
In the case of Bitcoin, my preferred option, and what I do every month, is to use an exchange. Although ETFs can also be a very good option, I prefer the freedom to move my Bitcoin wherever I want and also have the option of generating extra interest by putting part of my Bitcoin investment into deposits.
Currently, I am using the CPTAN platform, which is an exchange registered with the Bank of Spain and very easy to use. It allows you to automate your investments in Bitcoin, as well as other cryptocurrencies, and also generate interest more frequently. They are currently offering up to 10% annual interest on deposits.
But if you don't yet have an account with them, you can use my invitation code, which I'll leave here, to get a 35% extra return on your first deposit. Up to 133.5% return on your first deposit! I'm sharing all the information on the gold CFSs I mentioned, as well as cryptocurrencies, in the video description.
But as always, remember that I'm simply sharing the options I like and use. Feel free to use whichever stocks you find most suitable. Anyway, this video was to discuss the economic situation and the opinions of some top investors. So let me know in the comments if you'd be interested in a step-by-step video on how to invest in gold, or if you'd like us to analyze Bitcoin ETFs, which can be an interesting option for some people to gain exposure to this asset.
I sincerely hope this video has helped you understand the economic risks we face and the recommendations for protecting ourselves shared by some of the world's most renowned investors. I read your questions and suggestions in the comments. Also, remember that you can subscribe to my free newsletter through my website to access exclusive content and this channel, where you'll find all the information.
You'll find something of interest in the video description. Greetings, and see you in the next video!
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