A split Congress is probably the favorite for the markets, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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미 대선 직후 시장 영향 전망. 대선 결과 불확실성 해소 자체는 긍정적이나, 공화당 일색 정부(대통령+상하원)면 감세 연장 기대로 채권시장이 흔들리고 금리 상승 우려. 분할정부가 시장에 가장 우호적일 가능성이 높다고 봄. 상원은 베팅마켓상 공화당 80% 이상, 하원은 접전. 베팅마켓이 여론조사보다 정확하다고 평가하며 최근 트럼프 쪽으로 기울었다고 언급. 트럼프 1기 감세는 2025년 12월 만료 예정.

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01. Jeremy seel is here he's professor a he's also Chief Economist at Wisdom Tree and Jeremy we've got a Fed meeting this week but I guess that's overshadowed by the election what what do you think about the election's potential impact on the stock and bond markets well first Becky I I think if it's a you know it's pretty clean one way or the other we're we don't have something you guys were talking about Bush gour hanging chad if isn't that close if it's decisive either for Harris or Trump I think there'll be a relief I mean that that there was less likely to be huge challenges and uncertainty and just getting that uncertainty behind us I think is positive um if there's a a democratic if there's a republican sweep of house senate uh and the presidency I I expect the bond market to be wobbly I expect them to be worried uh that uh Trump would enact all those tax cuts um and I think bond yields would Rise um I think a split Congress whoever wins the presidency is is probably the favorite uh for the markets so that neither candidate can get his or her full plan uh pushed through so I think that a lot of it does depend on the house or the Senate I think the Senate would be pretty clear I mean the betting markets are over 80% for a republican uh takeover of the Senate but the house looks very close um and um that that might take days to be decided uh but that that could be very very important in terms of of how the market uh will react hey Jeremy no matter what happens in the house it's not going to be a big majority One Direction or the other so maybe that in itself is bit of a hung jury situation um no matter what happens because we've seen how difficult it is to control the house when you only have a few votes five or fewer well it that's true if it's if it's that close but uh as we all know the Trump uh tax cuts uh enacted uh uh you know in his first term are going to expire on December 31st of next year and uh the house uh I I would say I mean you know if if they want to pushed through his tax cuts and extended for another seven years I even even think those those radical members of the Republican Party would be voting for that so uh a close one even in the house I think would still give the the Republicans an edge on getting their tax uh through uh so I think that um you know that that that that's still going to be important in terms of whether all three are controlled by one one or the other Jeremy you mentioned the betting markets for the Senate 80% so 80 sounds like something that that gives you some confidence but beyond that how effective do you as a Wharton guy how do you view betting markets versus polls and both of some have uh there strengths in both weaknesses in both you do you need to use both is one or the other better as additional facts come in betting markets can totally flip from 9010 to 109 and we know and I mentioned earlier Wisconsin was up 17 for Biden and when it was all said and done it was he won by one so are either one of them neither listen Nei neither of course are are perfect there could be big errors I would the betting markets to me are the most accurate um you know and you know the war that uh that the government had against those betting markets you know trying to close them down for the presidential was was a big disservice I think to Americans academics were opposed because we use those betting markets in terms of uh understanding how markets react to different predictions um and yeah I mean I think in the very recent days we've seen that turn back to Trump now I would I would honestly say I think poly Market is probably a little Trump biased um but Ki uh predicted and the others are are moved together uh they're a little bit less Trump than than the poly market and you can understand why but they're they're basically moving together and uh they have given a turn to Trump in the last 24 hours I think some of the very recent polls the atlas and Emerson have noten quite as good as the trend might have been hoped by the Harris Administration um so uh but again they're they're betting the house to be nearly 5050 even if they're giving Trump 6040 on that so that that that that is going to be very very close and uh you know I don't know where if we will know the house uh by the end of the day