저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 현재 시장이 '20년대' 강세장의 euphoria 단계에 가까워졌고, 실적 모멘텀(FEMO) 중심 상승이 500개 기업으로 확산 중이라고 봄. 동일가중 S&P 지수 강세, 금융·산업·헬스케어 신고가 언급. 연준 신임 의장 Warsh의 물가안정 강조로 9월 금리 인상 가능성을 예상하며 채권시장은 긍정적으로 반응할 것이라 봄. 10년물 금리 4~5%는 정상 수준이라 주장. 2010년 이후 미국 비중 확대를 권했으나 작년 12월부터 해외 기회 탐색을 권장, 헬스케어 비중 확대 언급. 지정학 위기는 매수 기회라는 역사적 근거 제시.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg Audio Studio. Podcasts, radio, news. Edward Yardeni with us. We had Ben Laidler with us who made the correct prediction for Christmas Eve 2018. Then a pandemic struck, and Mr. Yardeni climbed aboard in October 2022, saying, “It’s the ’ 20s.” John Templeton. Yes. I mentioned him on my Twitter account this week.
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on doubt , mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. Dr. Yardeni, how close are we to the rapture? Yeah, I mean , we're obviously closer to euphoria now than we were in the beginning , which I would still call the '20s. And I think we're seeing that , although this time the excitement is what I call FEMO, which is great earnings momentum.
It's not FOMO or PE is actually stuck at 20 for a while. Its earnings have been phenomenal, and then this morning we heard that some of these AI companies are consistently hitting home runs. Home run with Corey with absolutely last night. Yes. Yeah, I'm looking at the S SPX , normal weighted is up 12 13%, but equal weighted yes.
15% up. That's a good sign, isn't it? This is a very good sign. This is very healthy. And you know, I say 493. You know, there's a magnificent seven and then there's the impressive 493 and they're doing very well so far this year which really shows that the market is expanding and I think you know , I think people have a fair amount of AI fatigue.
They don't really know which companies are going to be winners or losers. So they might be buying indexes on technology. But shares of other companies like financial, industrial, healthcare are at record highs. This is because people understand their businesses and believe they can benefit from AI. Yeah, I think everyone is trying to figure out the winners and losers.
It does n't look like the Fed is going to help the market here. I think the question is whether they will hurt the market by raising rates aggressively. Now, what do you have to say on this ? I think it's going to be aggressive. I think the market was certainly surprised when during the first FOMC meeting that the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh chaired, where he very aggressively stated that his first priority is price stability and because he admitted that the Fed had failed to get the 5-year rate down to 2%.
And then in July he said it again and the market said, " Well, you said it in June. Now, why don't you do something in July ?" And so, I think the markets are expecting an interest rate hike in September. And look, I think the bond market will react positively to this , which will be positive for the stock market.
Thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Money a few weeks ago. We got a great response to that. Danny Sentence in a year, Paul, it stopped traffic on Friday afternoon. The rates were normal. They should remain at the rates they are at now. For companies , this is an important concept. I want you to take this back to Yale Dynamics , which combines economics, investing, and finance.
Companies can operate in an environment of valid real interest rate and nominal interest rate. Many young people do n't think like this. They do n't believe it. Yes. Well, one thing that catches my attention is that nowadays people say that interest rates will remain high for a long time, which means they should be low.
You know, we're just going to be disappointed. But what does it mean to stay high for a long time? 4 to 5% is normal. They should be here. He was right here. The 10 years were before the big financial crisis. Before the inflation crisis of the 70s, it was between 4 and 5%. It was 4 to 5%. 4 to 5% is actually a vote of confidence.
This shows that the economy can function very well. And by the way, it's good to see that the capital markets have been freed from quantitative easing so that they can actually vote on where rates should actually be. And right now I think 4 to 5% is a positive sign. And we are seeing new issuances in the investment grade bond market.
And it has been absorbed very well. What about US vs. non-US? I'm looking at my WEI function and there are good returns around the world and probably some better valuations outside the US. What do you think about this ? Yes, we were pushing the idea of staying home and being overweight in America from 2010 until late last year.
So, we missed the opportunity to go global. But I think we've gotten over that. We'll see, maybe I lost. But in December of last year I said, "You know what? I ca n't really recommend being overweight in the US when it accounts for 65% of the global MSCI market cap. " So, I said, “Let’s talk about looking for opportunities abroad.
” And so far this year, it's been kind of Steven. I mean, you know, it has n't been one or the other. I mean , look, there's a global bull market in stocks. This is actually what is happening. And what you address , as I did, I remember the Glass Half Empty crew on Friday. They need to part ways , they need to retire, yes.
They need to stay in the game , but their mental framework from childhood, whatever it is, yeah. Not like Yardeni. Yeah, well, how do they part ? To a large extent, their childhood is happy. Look, I think they should stop listening to the permabears. The permabears will take them out from above. They'll take them out from the middle and they'll take them out from the bottom.
If you constantly fear permabears, you will never survive in the market. With stocks, if trading isn't your day job , you have to stay in for the long term. “Never be in the market, ” says Dr. Yardeni. I would put it more broadly , Paul, and say “ Never participate in the American experiment. ” Yes, that's right.
It's very broad , yes, you are it's almost a Robert Shiller thing. Absolutely. If people are looking for opportunities outside of the AI business , where do you send them these days? Well, I'm not that original. I mean, I look at all the areas and see what new areas there are. So, I let the market be my guide.
And financials, industrials, healthcare are all at record highs. At the end of last year, we made healthcare more heavily weighted in the market , and that's because we thought that if any sector needs to manage information better, needs AI, it's healthcare. But the financial sector is spending billions of dollars on fintech.
Yes. You know, I'm really tired of getting checks from my clients. I mean, I love getting money , but you know, why don't I just get Venmo for everyone ? So, I think there's been a significant productivity gain. And industries, of course, are benefiting from the AI boom , which I think is the real thing.
what is your concern? I think you have been bullish and you have been proven right. what is your concern? Well, you know, in terms of geopolitics, it seems like the markets are in turmoil. Yeah, you know , I think those of us who have been doing this for a while and those who are new to it and history tells us that geopolitical crises are buying opportunities.
Yes. The stock market actually bottomed a few months after Pearl Harbor, when we bombed the Japanese Navy at Midway, and that was well before the war ended, and yet the market had already bottomed, and look what happened this time, the market bottomed on March 30th, and we have n't looked back. Mrs.
Keane emailed, “Can you ask Ed how the dogs are in heat?” You have four dogs. How do you get them outside this summer ? Yeah, we take them out for about 5 minutes and then they knock on the door and beg to come back, but you know , those dogs are so lazy. They are King Charles Cavaliers , so they definitely like to be in the air conditioning at home.
Venmo vet. I mean, how do you, I mean, how many veterinarians are there can you see ? Well, I recently tried to find a vet who specializes in sleep apnea because Bailey snores , and it's very difficult to sleep when she snores. This is your Danny family. This is your Danny family. There you go with your dog, along with four dogs.
This isn't three- dog night with your Danny. It's a four-dog night. That's your Danny research. We protect the copyrights of all our guests.
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