JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon On Why India Was Included In The JP Morgan Bond Index

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결론: 인도 채권지수 편입과 인도 성장 스토리에 대해 Dimon은 낙관적이며, 이는 중국 리스크 때문만이 아니라 정당한 기대라고 평가. [인도 투자 낙관론] 인도에 대한 낙관은 충분히 정당하다고 주장. 모디 정부의 개혁(아다르 신원 체계로 수천만 명의 은행계좌 개설, 세제 단순화, 외국인직접투자 개방, 인프라 프로그램)이 주요 동력. 중국 리스크는 기회 요인이지만 낙관의 유일한 이유는 아님. [JP모건의 인도 사업 확장] 2005년 이후 인도 인력이 6,000명에서 60,000명으로 증가, 내일 1만 명 규모의 뭄바이 신규 센터 개소 예정. 사업 영역은 콜센터에서 기술·분석·사이버 등으로 확대. 기업금융: 과거 10~20개 기업 커버 및 리서치 → 150개 이상 커버; 다국적 기업 20~30곳 → 약 500곳 자문/금융 지원. 인도 기업의 런던·싱가포르·미국 자금조달 및 M&A도 지원. 향후 20년간 사업 규모가 다시 두 배가 될 것으로 전망. [디지털 인프라] 인도의 디지털 공공인프라와 핀테크 발전은 매우 우수하며 JP모건 직원들에게 인도 사례 학습을 권고했다고 언급. [채권지수 편입 효과] JP모건 내부 추정 약 250억 달러 유입, 외부 추정(향후 1.5년간 250~400억 달러)보다 보수적. 편입은 시간에 걸쳐 점진적으로 매수되는 구조. 직접적 자금 유입보다 자본시장 신뢰도, 법치, 투명성, 정부 재정 신뢰라는 간접효과가 더 중요하다고 강조. [리스크·조건] 본 영상에서 구체적 하방 리스크 언급은 제한적. 중국 이슈는 기회 요인으로 프레임.

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01. the big event that we were all waiting for highly anticipated India's inclusion into the JPMorgan emerging market index uh uh you know so you timed it appropriately didn't you yeah perfect I think it's a great sign there in the index and uh yes so you know let's talk about India since you are here what's been the impression since this is your first visit both the pandemic we've just finished hosting the G20 and there's a lot of focus and attention on India and its potential as well as the economy what's your first impression of being back here but I love coming here I've been coming here since 2005.

02. we've gone from 6 000 employees to 60 000 employees they travel the world and they were it's not call centers anymore it's everything technology analytics cyber uh it's extraordinary tomorrow I go to a new Mumbai center with 10 000 people uh uh and then look at this conference I remember eight years ago or nine years ago when stars like 50 or 75 clients now it's 700 investors around the world and you know 70 companies or 100 companies presenting I think the optimism about India is actually completely Justified well what you believe is driving that optimism today what would be the the two or three things that you believe are driving the confidence in the optimism in the India story today well true I think I think modi's been doing a very good job and things like adhar to get a bank account to several thousand people simplifying taxes uh you know trying to open up more for foreign direct investment the international infrastructure program but just to give you universities here so we're not the only bank here there are lots of the banks with a lot of people but so is Accenture McKinsey and obviously you have your local you know Tata et cetera so those things are driving optimism it's not just because of the complications with China I think that's an opportunity I think some of this opportunity would some of those optimism would have been there anyway uh you know you talked about other and you talked about some of the things that we've done on the digital side what's your takeaway as far as what we've done on the fintech and the digital payment thing and up I mean what's your team telling you about the strength of digital public infrastructure and how India's been able to build on that well it's excellent I remember coming years ago and having turn our people you better study what they're doing in India because they're ahead of us in a bunch of things but I can't answer the questions I'm about to meet with some of them I think right after this so uh that's one of the great reasons you travel you learn a lot but you've they've built some great companies here you know so given the opportunity that you see in India what is that going to potentially mean now for your plans for India you talked about how jpmorgan's grown here in India both in terms of the size of the business as well as the head count what could we expect from here on yeah I think it should be more of the same you know go to the corporate side Investment Banking cyber business we used to cover 10 to 20 companies here and we did research on them now we covered you know 150 plus you know we used to bank 20 or 30 multinationals coming to India now we bank I'm going to say 500 multinationals we help multinationals and also we Bank all your Indian companies in London Singapore America you know as we help them Finance or buy and do M A so my guess is the next 20 years they'll just double again just a quick follow-up on the inclusion into the bond index and there's all kinds of estimates on what that could mean in terms of inflows into India anywhere between 25 to 40 billion dollars is the estimate over the next year and a half as the inclusion works it's way out typically what's been the previous experience of a country being included in the bond index what the implications in the medium to long term yeah so our folks think it'll be about 25 billion it get you know it has to be bought so it gets bought over time but I think it's a wonderful thing when you index like that what it means about your Capital markets your rule of law your transparency your government financing the the indirect effect is more important you know what you want is capital foreign direct investment both you know implant and uh equities and things you know Innovative companies and stuff like that so it's just one more very positive sign good foreign