저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 장준왈라는 2022년 예산이 세수 추정을 지나치게 보수적으로 잡았다고 보고, 12월까지 순세수 실적을 근거로 올해 세수가 3~4 lakh crore 더 걷히고 재정적자는 최소 1~1.5%p 낮아질 것이라 주장했다. 세수 증가가 일시적이 아니라 세수/GDP 비율의 구조적 상승이라고 보며, 정부의 세제·행정 개혁이 결실을 맺고 있다고 평가했다. 정부는 명목 GDP 8~8.5%를 목표로 하지만 실제로는 10% 성장을 계획하고 있다고 언급했고, PLI와 사업환경 개선이 중국 리스크 속에서 인도 투자를 끌어들인다고 봤다. 신용 사이클은 지나갔고 자본지출(capex) 사이클이 앞에 있으며, 민간 투자 확대가 예상된다고 했다. 재정 지출 확대 없이 세수가 늘고 있어 적자 개선이 가능하다고 강조했다. 전략적 매각(disinvestment)은 목표치 달성 여부를 확신하지 못했지만, 세수가 크게 늘어날 것이라고 봤다. 증시는 지난 6개월간 외국인 매도(FII 37,000 crore 매도)에도 역대 고점 대비 10% 이내로 버티고 있다고 평가했다. 내수 관련 섹터(은행, 자동차, 시멘트)가 IT 이후 회복되고 있으며, 공공부문 은행의 밸류에이션이 여전히 매력적이라고 말했다. 스타트업 밸류에이션은 비합리적으로 과열됐다고 경계했고, 가상자산 과세 및 디지털 루피 도입 방향에 대해서는 정부의 명확한 입장을 언급했다. 결론적으로 인도 성장 스토리에 대해 강세(bullish) 입장을 유지하며, 인도에 대해 낙관적이어야 한다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
joining us now is the big bull himself mr ginger wala always a pleasure thanks very much for joining us here on cnbc tv 18. uh you know the big headlines coming in from the budget of course the biggest one is as far as private capex is concerned but let me get you to to tell us what you liked about budget 2022 first of all i would like to point out sharing that is the ultra conservatives conservative estimates of tax collections ultra ultra ultra ultra conservative because the net tax revenue to the center which you can see on this figure is extracted from the official site of the finance ministry the tax administrative center are about 13 lakhs up to december is about 14 lakh 73 000 crores and the estimate for the full year is 17 lakh 65 000.
and the net tax revenue to the center in december was 3 lakhs 75 000 crores and the addition they have taken for the next three months is only 2 lakh 90 000. i can bet that the next tax the net tax revenue of the government in the current fiscal will be three to four lakh crores three to four lakh crores higher than the body estimates the fiscal deficit will be at least one one and a half percent lower than what is being projected in the budget and similarly for next year you know if this year the collection is higher with three and a half lakh crores then next year the collection will be higher by four electrodes so i think this is the conservatism of the highest highest level and all the you know all the concern about borrowing in the bond market will be addressed we just have to wait until march and when december january tax collections come in until this will become very apparent clearing in january it said we will meet the budget estimates revised budget estimates that's an important point i want to make second thing i think you know i'm not looking at the point of view of one year expense i think we are missing the trees for the woods what is this reflecting is a permanent growth in the tax to gdp ratio and you know the improvement that the government is trying to make in the tax laws and the administration in the last seven years is now coming to fruit and this increase in tax to gdp is going to help us in years to come second thing i feel third thing that we have take we are projecting eight eight and a half percent nominal gdp growth it may be eight percent but as a country we are planning for ten percent we have the we have the courage to say we'll grow ten percent and a lot of the reforms especially the pli the ease of doing business has come in to reflect the china factor and you know we have a credit cycle which is past us and a capric cycle which is ahead of us and the world wants to invest in india so i mean remain extremely bullish in as usual i think markets will do well and more than that the country will do well we're going to have growth with good social welfare you know that's a very important point that you make rakesh jung jinwala and and we will try and get the budget team to explain to us why in your words they've been so ultra ultra ultra conservative as far as their tax assumptions are concerned but uh we will try and get them to explain that to us but you know on some of the themes that the budget has taken forward and you talked about pli for instance uh there seems to very be a very concerted attempt at ensuring that the pli schemes that were announced are executed and operationalized and wherever needed for instance there was a further announcement today of nineteen and a half thousand crore rupees as far as the solar module pli is concerned uh to push green and clean energy so sustainable uh and equitable growth in the long term uh seems to be something that the government is working towards on that aspect uh from the short to medium term what do you believe the government is going to be able to do to stimulate demand consumption and recovery while in the long term as you've pointed out it puts the pieces places the pieces up nicely simulation of demand and see the government in spite of elections has not done any populist measures has not made any increase in welfare expenditures is uncalled for right so you know that that's course mark remember only sharing what's most important in india is a fair and well regulated tax regime and ease of doing business when that is there india is going to just boom and we we have the credit cycle which is passed us and no country does a great cycle power you know generally happen without a 8 to 10 percent year gap and second thing is we have a capital cycle ahead of us you see what mr kumar mingling builder is saying what all the industries are saying what is mr agarwal saying what is the alliance saying the private sector to invest in invest heavily so ma'am i think we are very well placed i'm lucky to be invested at this time and i am bullish man well that's the second time you've said that uh that's a very bullish rakesh dun dunwalla saying that uh he's he likes what he's heard today and to the point that you were making about the government wanting to crowd in private investment that was what the finance minister spoke of as well when they decided to up the allocation for capex by almost 35 percent but uh rakesh and walla on the strategic disinvestment front because what we have seen is the government has cut its target for this year and it's also kept a fairly conservative target conservative in the context of what we've seen the government lay out in the previous years at 65 000 crores do you believe that that is also going to be something that they will better and better quite significantly i don't know about the study disinvestment whether you get 65 000 but i know one thing that the tax revenue collections are going to go through the roof and the budget deficit this year is at least going to be one one and a half percent lower than what she is estimated unless until the expenditure increases simple you've collected 13 lakhs 75 000 crores up to november up to december net next time you do the center i am showing you the site i have extracted from the official site of the ministry of finance right and they have taken 17 like 65 000 as a tax collection i think will be at least three to four lakhs extra yes that's that point you've made but what does this now mean as far as whether markets are positioned rakish especially in the context of what is happening globally and in light of what the government has now laid out very clearly as the blueprint for growth ma'am i can tell you i think in the last six months and last time when the f5s have sold one like 37 000 crores and market is not is less than 10 below its all-time high what else can i tell you and you know people say no if they open eight crore demand accounts what about the balance 80 groups i always like to see a glass full okay and i think there is see india i mean again only reputation in india on the words of big change big change you would say that in that case uh go all in on the domestic economy facing stocks for last two or three years it's been all about i.t but now played you know started to see banks pick up autos pick up cement has been doing well right invest i'm not going to advise you where to invest i'm not your investment advisor you invest where you think but i think public sector banks are going to do really well and the valuations even today are ridiculous from a sectoral standpoint there was a lot of thrust in this budget whether it was infrastructure whether it was at big surge in capex a lot of focus on renewable energy electric vehicles hybrid vehicles etc uh anything that stands out from you for you uh from a long-term investor standpoint you are excited by the fact that government is going to increase capital expenditure i feel the increase of capital expenditure when a private sector is going to exceed the government's big time and management underestimating i think when you receive tax time estimates for the current year at least three and a half four lakh crores more than would be more than what they've estimated yeah that that that is something that uh that you have expressed and many have uh have suggested that perhaps we could see a beat on that front uh but let me let me address the uh the issue of uh you know what the theme seems to be and i think that is something that you spoke about as well i think amitabh khan put it very well in his conversation with me he said that this is an attempt to move away from sunrise sunset sectors to sunrise sectors would you agree with that ma'am what you buy is very important and what variation you buy is more important so i i don't see sunset and i don't see sunrise i know i'm not going to buy any any sunrise at any price and not that i will not buy sunset at a price and i don't know what do you mean by sunrise and sunset are banks going to go out of fashion or metal is going to go out of fashion can you create metals on the internet so i don't look at sunrise and sunset because the sunrise are all ridiculously valued and don't forget that ultimately uh you know price is a slave of earnings that is there is one truth in the stock market worldwide price stock prices ultimately are slave of earnings and cash flow so you believe that what we are seeing as far as the uh startup valuations are concerned uh uh are are not bordering but are already irrationally exuberant when i reserve my comments just like crypto i stood out right now to go to every party in town i don't want to go to the startup party here see the hangover is only after two days right uh you know there was there was an interesting provision in the budget uh to tax crypto currencies i wonder if you know spotted that uh rakes jungle i think what government wants to do is that it wants rbi to promote a digital currency and kill all other currencies just like china is doing which is the right approach also in my opinion yes the government has made it clear that uh there will be the introduction of a digital rupee by the reserve bank and with that tax that's been brought in on cryptocurrencies on nft the 30 tax of one percent tds the government making it clear that irrespective of whether a bill is moved in parliament or not this is now very clearly under uh the tax br tax net uh rakesh underwater you know there was a lot of sectors a lot of themes that were addressed of course in the overarching uh pillars of growth that the government intends to focus on not just in the next year but over the next 25 years what appeals to you the most in terms of the thrust and focus areas from what you have heard so far i think he's of doing business privatization right a good and fair tax regime a cutting of the bureaucracy's clips anyway all this india will grow for decades see all this improvement is a process it's not a journey it's a journey it's not there's no destination it it is a journey and it promises to be a very exciting journey uh uh rakesh junzuwala thanks very much for joining us here i know you don't comment on the budget this is the first time that you have decided to come on budget day and express and share your thoughts on what you make of the budget and more importantly the implications that it has for the economy uh so we we do appreciate the fact that you have decided to join us today on cnbc tv any final comments before we let you go yeah i think it's my request and my observation that believe in india be optimistic we are getting there you
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