저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인 반감기 이후 3·6·12·18개월 가격 성과를 분석한 결과, 과거 사이클 평균을 적용하면 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 주장. ETF 도입으로 비트코인이 대중화 국면에 진입할 것이며, 달러 가치 하락 우려와 맞물려 금을 대체할 수 있다고 봄. 또한 암호화폐 업계의 정치적 조직화와 '정교한 투자자 테스트' 도입을 옹호함. 단, 본인은 투자 조언이 아니라 추측이라고 명시.
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so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first 3 months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation Cycles hey everyone welcome back to our Channel today we're diving into a fascinating discussion featuring chamoth Palapa a prominent venture capitalist and entrepreneur as he unpacks the intricate world of Bitcoin chth Begins by explaining the fundamental concept ofit Bitcoin having he mentions having his team analyze the price performance 1 month 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after each having event the findings were intriguing showing significant price appreciation post having for instance 18 months after the first having bitcoin's price increased by 45 times after the second having it went up by 28 times and after the third having it appreciated by eight times these numbers indicate that havingsex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and and money and when you solve it you get rewarded with some number of Bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called a having and this week I saw somebody who reminded me all this and I just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is Wes kasaris and Wes in Silicon Valley I would say really was Agent Zero of Bitcoin he was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me I remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at waren hummus and he's like he's Argentinian he's a great so I'm going to try to copy he's like you have to buy the beatcoin so I heard the story I fell in love with it I remember I called my family office I'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars worth and he was like are you crazy and I was like no this just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and prosing Bitcoin and I want to thank him because he really put me on to this but he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having and so I was really curious and so I had a guy on my team Quinton put this together so Nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first 3 months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost an adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages there are by no means predictions okay so I just want to qualify that these are this is not Financial advice this not Financial advice these are just guesses we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle 2 and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreci and when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities so I just thought that this was a interesting thing that he that he here's our disclaimer interesting thing that he put me on I thought I'd share that with you I'll publish this on Twitter but that's your crypto corner for the year folks chamoth shifts gears to discuss the political and Regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrency he points out that the crypto Community is becoming increasingly organized for ing lobbying groups to advocate for their interests this movement is partly in response to regulatory pressures from figures like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren who have been critical of the crypto industry he mentions the case of Sam bankman fried SPF highlighting how his actions and Ambitions have influenced the regulatory landscape chamoth suggests that the crypto community's political Awakening could significantly impact future regulations and policies I think it's really interesting how the crypto Community is getting organized into a basically a Lobby to advocate for its interest because they biggest Lobby in America did you know that yeah they've been so targeted over the last few years because gendler and Warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore well every action has a equal and opposite reaction and now the crypto people have basically had a political Awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system yeah just as a matter of Defense self-defense shout outf a Pioneer well not like that I mean that I mean he was dropping money on everybody yeah did you guys hear this did you hear this rumor that he was doing that to basically push for regulatory capture remember yeah I think it's Point did you guys hear this rumor did you guys hear this rumor that SPF was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince Tom Brady to run as a Republican and give no give the billion to Trump oh sorry give a billion to Trump he was going to give Trump a billion to not run okay and and then get Tom Brady to run I mean this person had delusions of ground he thought he was a Jedi Knight and he's like literally in jaa's Palace right now I don't know what this I mean what a lunatic he was I mean talk about delusions of grandeur sacks this guy thought he would just drop a billion dollars and convince somebody not to run for government I think we're gonna I think we're going to get a regulatory you know back to the young people we talked about in the previous story I think the reason there attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control and since if you don't trust the government and you see the government over and over and over again cover things up or the grift or make decisions that are not in your generation's best interest why wouldn't you opt out of their financial system and you know what there's a lot of them and they have they're getting organized to your point ax I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election what do you think sax how many points is being the pro crypto candidate in this election one two three points of votes Four Points it's got to be if young people show up it'll be it'll be it could be 500 basis points I mean young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct but there's 50 million Americans at own crypto 5050 Z okay so if 10% of them are like let's say that's their single issue that's 5 million votes no no no there's a there's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation right so for example like you know Biden President Biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt and it creates a lot of Hales and Have Nots right and there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief Etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge Against The Establishment and the traditional Financial system and you are threatening to take that wealth away yeah I could see how 80% of those folks show up to The Ballot Box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is President Trump then they're all going to vote for president Trump I think this is like such a great issue for uh political candidates to embrace and it's such a simple framework I've said it a dozen times create a sophistic at investor test let a thousand flowers bloom people can make whatever crypto projects they want but to buy it you just have to take a simple test like a driver's license so that you don't risk your entire net worth or whatever if you do you're an informed buyer of crypto just make a sophisticated investor test and let's move on chamoth touches on the younger generation's attraction to crypto noting that many young people distrust traditional Financial systems and see crypto as a way to opt out he argues that this Dem demographics growing involvement could have substantial political implications potentially influencing election outcomes he proposes the simple regulatory framework a sophisticated investor test for crypto investors this test would ensure that those investing in crypto understand the risks involved similar to a driver's license test thereby fostering a safer and more informed investment environment please like And subscribe my channel
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