Chamath Palihapitiya Issues a FINAL WARNING about the CRASH 💥

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결론: 다가오는 3~5개월간 CPI 급등이 예상되며, 연준의 과잉 긴축과 기업 실적 하향으로 주식시장 전반이 하락할 가능성이 크다는 비관적 전망이다. 인플레이션 전망: 임대료(3개월 시차)와 소유자환산임대료 재반영으로 CPI가 계속 오를 것으로 예상하며, 현재 CPI 8~9% 수준이 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 유가는 배럴당 105달러 수준이고 러시아의 유럽 가스 공급 차질이 리먼급 전염 우려를 낳고 있다고 언급했다. 연준 및 부채: 연준이 신뢰를 잃지 않으려면 결국 과도하게 긴축(과잉 교정)할 수밖에 없고, 이는 주식 하락으로 이어진다고 봤다. 사모펀드 LBO 부채 등 미국 전체의 과도한 레버리지도 신용시장 전염 위험으로 지목했다. 페이스북(메타) 사례: 시장 상승일에 메타는 약 4% 하락했는데, 똑똑한 기관 자금이 실적 하향을 반영해 매도한 것으로 해석했다. 월가의 올해 기록적 실적 및 내년 증가 전망은 틀렸고, 실적이 하향 조정될 것이라고 주장했다. 이에 따라 전체 주식이 낮은 가격으로 재평가될 것이며, 현금 소각하는 비수익 기술주에 특히 큰 압력이 가해질 것으로 봤다. 유동성 및 M2: 주식시장 상승은 M2 통화량 증가와 0.92 상관관계였으므로, 연준의 3~5조 달러 유동성 회수는 주식 시장 가치를 같은 규모로 낮출 것으로 봤다. 이에 따라 현금 보유를 유지해야 하며 지금 유동성을 포기하지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 지정학 및 제재: 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁과 대러 제재가 실패해 러시아 경상수지 흑자가 늘었고, 제재 우회로 러시아 경제는 번성하고 있다고 비판했다. 결국 유럽 중심 협상을 통한 휴전이 예상되며, 달러 기축통화 지위 훼손(위안화 결제 확대) 우려를 제기했다. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 주식 전반 하락, 특히 비수익 성장주에 취약하다는 입장이며 현금 비중 확대를 시사했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think you need to buckle your seat belt because the next three four five months of CPI will probably be very very bad seven eight nine percent why there are a handful of components that have gotten completely run away number one the biggest one is rent and so rent works on a three month lag we're gonna reintroduce what the true owners equivalent rent is into CPI so we can already forecast that CPI going up oil is at 105 bucks a barrel Russia is basically trying to break the back of Europe by now messing with their Nat gas supplies the German energy Minister yesterday said that if that happens it could be a contagion equivalent to Lehman Brothers with respect to energy when you play all of these things out what you have is unfortunately rampant runaway costs that really have no mechanism to get back and check in the absence of some real governmental changes our policy on this Ukraine Russia War you know how we intend to sort of work or cooperate or fight with China all of these things have to get solved so in the absence of that prices are going to continue to go up and so what does the FED do how does it throw away what little credibility it has left when there's eight and nine percent inflation prints and saying we think we're done for right now you can't do that so they will over correct because there is just going to be so much pressure for them to act all roads I think lead to lower Equity prices but now it has to touch all these other areas for example we have gotten totally drunk on debt as a country one of the most obvious places where we've been serving alcohol far too late into the night isn't the financing of all these private Equity leverage buyouts these are sketchy companies that are sort of like teetering on insolvency at times where private Equity comes in levers up the balance sheet with debt they price it right to the edge of what's legally allowed or what's financiable and then they go do it but that's all assuming the economy continues to grow and so if all of a sudden you have some recessionary forces or prices go up and earnings don't you'll have a contagion in the debt markets you could have a contagion in the commodity market so we're dealing with some really tough boundary conditions I do think that we can know these things without sampling in such a porous way and now you know we're going to look we've had a system of over correcting and undercorrecting for years the problem is the stakes get higher and higher as the economy grows and becomes more complicated and we have more leverage I also want to tell you guys a quick Story one of the most interesting canaries in the coal mine of all of this was two days ago and what happened to Facebook and this sort of ties a lot of this stuff together in terms of economics inflation asset prices equities everybody was saying gosh the Market's going to rip on the open you know we were closed for Juneteenth and then on Tuesday the market you know the s p was up like 250 basis points 2.5 and the NASDAQ was also a polit maybe 300 basis points roughly but Facebook was down like 400 votes right so it's a big spread and why is that and I was like this makes no sense to me what is going on with this price action everything was up Apple was up Google was up and so I called around and you know I was like why is this happening and this is the best explanation I got when you look at who the incremental buyer is in the stock market it tends to give you a sense of whether prices can go up or will continue to go down and the forest informed buyer tends to be retail and the most informed buyer tends to be these very large institutional hedge funds right so there's a spectrum Facebook is an example a big tack that is poorly owned by retail so it's mostly owned by smart money and the case that smart money makes for owning Facebook is that it's got an extremely cheap price to earnings ratio so you must own it it's not that the price to earnings was cheap it's at the e in p e was just wrong and if they pass through all of these increases in inflation and you know their earnings expectations into Facebook it's actually more like fair value at a lower price that's why they sold it so much on a day where the market was on now why is that important well eventually you're going to touch all these other stocks as well that are going to go through earnings revisions in this recession this is where I think Wall Street has done a very poor job on behalf of retail if you look at the estimates of earnings you will be shocked to hear that Wall Street actually has this year being record earnings next year earnings continuing to go up how is that possible how do you see earnings continue to go up into these prints like this when you cannot pass through 80 90 increases in energy and cogs and whatnot you have to sell fewer things because there'll be fewer people with jobs to buy things I think wall Street's wrong and I think that earnings are going to go down this year and will definitely go down in 23 and so I think what probably happens is the entire world of equities needs to get repriced at a lower price and in that it's going to put enormous pressure on these cash burning non-profitable tech companies part of the government acknowledges that you have to really ring fence and protect consumers if you look at the Securities laws they're meant to protect them at all costs but the reason is because sometimes you want people to make good decisions and if you give them a bunch of Firepower they're just going to spend it they acted rationally they spent it now we have to take it all back I don't think that's going to be as easy or as simple as people think it's stunning that you know the reason the stock market went up dollar for dollar was actually tied to the growth in the M2 money supply the correlation was 0.92 so for every dollar that the FED printed the stock market went up by 92 cents so it stands to reason that if the FED is going to take three to five trillion dollars of value out then we have to rewrite the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum and then you have to rewrite and re-baseline for earnings and so that's probably another 20 or 30.

02. you're assuming that all of a sudden like demand is stable but it's not necessarily stable in a demand contraction yes people get fired but then also new job openings change there's fewer of them they're more specific again we're at the beginning of the beginning for all of us that lived through 2000 this was four years of sheer health and a grind now we have 30 trillion dollars that we have to work through the economy a recession we have to overcome a war we need to end and people all of a sudden assume that two or three rate hikes and five or six months of headlines are enough and on the margin maybe they're right but from my perspective you know it's an observation that we're at the beginning of something that just fundamentally has to take some amount of time to work its way through the system and so I don't understand why anyone buddy would give up their liquidity in this moment right now why would you why would I give up 100 million dollars of cash in my bank account I would not do that right now the people in Russia are suffering during this the people in the Ukraine are being murdered I mean how does it end the problem is that Biden engaged the United States in a proxy war without our real explicit discussion number one and then number two is then we pulled and we pressured Europe to really draw a hard line but the now are kind of working around it so that the countries that suffer the most are Europe now I think you starting to see the tea leaves though last week there was a group of European leaders I think it was macron draghi and one other person who went to Ukraine we need to find an organized de taunt here because there is according to Europe a lehman-like situation in terms of economic contagion that could manifest over the next months so I think that the end game is probably some organized negotiated detaunt and ceasefire I don't think anybody will be happy with it but I think by and large Russia is and has one you know meaning they've won economically they're selling oil like it's not going out of style it's just not selling it to Europe and to America you know they're selling it to China they're selling it in Africa they're selling it we engage in economic sanctions and I was the first one to say hey this could really work and this could be a road map for how to do it and it turned out this is the road map for how not to do it you can't on the front door say here are these sanctions and then walk around the back door and basically open the door for them these sanctions were so porous as to be like swiss cheese we focused on virtue signaling acts confiscating a plane or a boat or a house but we didn't focus on the structural things we needed to actually make the Mandate that we believe to be just to come to life and so Russia's completely worked around it their economy effectively is thriving so what have we gained because the exact opposite of what we tried to do Russia's current account Surplus more than tripled in the the first four months of the year prices surge oil and gas Imports and imports plunged under the weight of sanctions well you know if you're Putin and you're looking at this you're like wow maybe I should be under sanctions more often you know what country should I invade next so not only did our sanctions package not work and not only is the treasury flailing around now trying to find even more back doors which is now we allowed oil to settle in currencies that are not just the United States dollar and now Russia and China are trading and settling in CNY that's not good for us this is not how you preserve the reserve currency of America if you have a country that has existed in some way shape or form you know the borders could be blurry but roughly for hundreds and hundreds of years and in some cases thousands of years where internally the population of that country views themselves you know in a great way they don't feel like their country is a meaningless nothing country any attempt to economically humiliate such a country tends to have failed in the past and will continue to fill and there tends to be other countries who view it as one of these things where well if them then why not us and then they sort of in a backhanded way support everybody so we end up in this odd situation where we are picking fights we cannotwit and the consequences for us are economically really damaging and then the consequences for everybody else to stay on the sidelines is like economic prosperity