저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 금리 인상 기조가 실질적으로 완화(피벗)로 전환되고 있다는 결론. 연준은 금리 인상에서 인하로, 양적완화에서 양적긴축으로 바뀌지 않았지만 금리 인상 속도를 늦추는 수사적 전환이 일어났으며, 이는 사실상 금융여건 완화이다. 근거로 지난주 채권시장 급락이 제시됨: 30년물 국채금리가 4%를 넘었고 목요일 아침 4.4%에 근접했으며, 10년물은 금요일 4.33%로 2007년 11월 이후 최고치를 기록. 장단기 금리차가 정상화(장기 금리가 단기보다 높아짐)되었고, 시장이 장기 인플레이션 위험을 반영하기 시작했다고 진단. 미국 국가부채는 2007년 9조달러 미만에서 현재 31.2조달러 이상이며, 국채 이자비용이 금리 4.33%에서 연 1.35조달러를 넘어 국방비·사회보장보다 많아질 수 있다고 경고. 금리가 6%로 오르면 이자가 국방·복지·교육 합계를 초과하고, 8%면 사회보장·국방·교육 합계를 넘는다고 주장. 10년 내 이자가 연방 세수의 100%를 넘을 수 있다고 전망. 월스트리트저널 보도를 인용해 향후 금리 인상 폭이 75bp에서 50bp, 25bp로 줄어들 것이라는 신호가 나왔다고 설명. 경기가 약화되는 상황에서 금리를 올리는 것은 연준에 어려운 상황이라고 평가. 대상 자산 중 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 미국채금리에 대해 장기적으로 부채 부담 때문에 금리 상승이 지속 어렵다는 취지의 견해가 있음.
다듬은 글
I'm going to predict that we've already seen the FED pivot now it wasn't a pivot in the sense that the FED has gone from hiking interest rates to cutting interest rates it hasn't gone from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening but it is a pivot in rhetoric and what it amounts to is an easing of monetary conditions because what the FED is going to be doing I think going forward is starting to walk back just how aggressive its rate hiking campaign is going to be instead of talking about how critical it is to fight inflation I think the FED is going to be talking about the progress that they've already made in their inflation fight and therefore since they've made progress maybe not completely declaring Victory but indicating that they're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel that maybe they don't have to raise interest rates as high as they thought or maybe leave them as high for as long as they thought and so the path back down to two percent inflation may not require as aggressive a rate hiking campaign as they may have previously fought before they started to see the evidence of their success and the reason I think this is happening and the reason I think it has happened is because Thursday of last week the bond market really looked like it was about to collapse and how quickly interest rates were rising in fact at the beginning of last week the yield on the 30-year treasury finally got above four percent and in fact on Thursday morning it almost got to 4.4 percent that was a huge move intra week remember I said that I thought the move from four percent to five percent would be even quicker than the move from three percent to four percent and that was on Pace to come true and one of the things that was very problematic in the bond market Carnage that was going on last week was that the yield curve had moved to positive between the 10-year and the 30-year and that's how it should be and I had been predicting that that would happen because I thought that the markets would start to price in the extra inflation risk that would Exist by going 20 years longer on the bond curve you see more people were focused on a reset session and the FED cutting rates and they weren't paying attention to what that meant for the long-term inflation rate well I think Bond investors were starting to figure this out and that's why they were selling off the 30-year Bond even more aggressively than they were selling off the 10-year bond because the Achilles heel of this bubble economy is interest rates because we've got so much debt and if interest rates rise high enough the whole thing is going to collapse I kept tweeting about that as a matter of fact I think it was on Thursday just pointing out just how dependent the United States is on artificially low interest rates in fact on Friday morning I tweeted out the following the 10-year U.S treasury yield hit 4.33 its highest since November of 2007 when the national debt was still under 9 trillion today it's over 31.2 trillion at 4 0.33 annual interest payments on the national debt would exceed 1.35 trillion dollars that's more than the US government spent on National Defense or Social Security think about it at that rate of interest interest on the national debt would be the most expensive government program because right now the most expensive Social Security I think it's about 1.2 1.3 trillion a year National Defense is about a trillion a year but interest on the national debt would be 1.35 trillion now it wouldn't get there immediately because a lot of the debt is still locked in at lower interest rates but it's not locked in for an extended period of time so as all that short-term debt matures and has to be refinanced at current market rates the overall cost of the national debt continues to Surge and ultimately we would have that 1.35 trillion dollar price tag in a few years but of course in a few years the debt it's self will be much larger than it is today so it's not even going to take that long for net interest payments to be that much money when you keep compounding the size of the debt and of course as rising interest rates weaken the economy that alone increases the debt the weaker the economy is the bigger the deficits are the faster the national debt is rising and now all of that debt has to be financed at the higher interest rates then I said when the national debt hits 35 trillion next year which I think it will at a six percent rate of interest annual interest payments on the national debt would exceed the National Defense budget welfare and education spending combined can you imagine spending more on interest on the national debt than defense welfare and education combined now if interest rates went to eight percent which they would have to do just to equal the current rate of inflation then interest on the national debt would exceed what we spend annually on Social Security National Defense and education combined you see the problem here debt is spiraling out of control and it's going to crowd out all the other government spending in fact the last tweet I made on this subject was the following at the rate the national debt and interest rates are rising before the decade ends interest on the national debt will exceed 100 percent of federal tax revenue that would mean the entire federal government would then consist of just the treasury Department which would collect taxes and pay interest on the debt basically the US government would be a conduit from taxpayers to bondholders now obviously this can't happen at some point something has to give and I think that something already gave I think it gave on Friday morning and that's why I think the FED folded with this soft pivot and again the reason I'm saying it's a soft pivot and not a hard pivot is because the FED is still on the trajectory of hiking rates I just think it shifted into a lower gear and so that in and of itself constitutes an easing Even If the Fed is still tightening if it's tightening less aggressively then the markets had fought then it's an easing it's a forward guidance that is easily conditions a little bit and telling the markets hey you're too tight you're pricing in too many rate hikes because we're probably not going to have to hike as many times as you think the terminal rate is not going to be as high as you think because we're already making good progress now that is all Bs they're not making good progress but they have to say that because there's no real alternative now the way this pivot was telegraphed to the markets was through a Wall Street Journal reporter who basically said said he had it on good sources that the FED is going to be indicating that future rate hikes will be somewhat smaller than what they had previously indicated so maybe we'll have one more 75 basis point rate hike but then going forward there'll be 50 or 25 or who knows maybe the next rate hike won't even be 75 basis points it might be 50 basis points especially if we keep getting economic data like the economic data that we've already got this week so this is very difficult for the FED because they are hiking interest rates into a weakening economy
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