저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 과잉 부채·통화 증발로 인한 인플레이션과 이를 억제하려는 긴축이 맞물려 구매력이 크게 훼손되는 '1970년대식 스퀴즈'가 올 수 있다고 본다. [재정 습관과 개인 투자 순서] 재정 습관의 출발점은 저축을 늘리는 것이며, 저축으로 몇 날·몇 주·몇 달·몇 년을 생활할 수 있는지 계산해 안정감을 확보하라고 강조한다. 생활비를 기준으로 필요 금액을 산출하고, 실제 필요액은 그보다 더 많다고 보고 여유를 두라고 한다. 투자 우선순위는 본인과 가장 가까운 것부터다. 사업이나 직업에 대한 자기 투자가 최고의 투자일 수 있다고 본다. 주거용 주택은 강제 저축 효과와 개량 즐거움, 대출 이자 세액공제 등의 이점이 있다고 언급하나, 임대 대비 매수 여부는 흑백으로 답할 수 없다고 한다. [유동성 관리] 당장 쓸 수 있는 유동 자산과 묶여 있는 비유동 자산을 구분하라고 한다. 집에 자산이 묶여 실직 시 상환 부담이 생기는 위험을 경고한다. [경험과 초기 투자] 12살 때 캐디 수입으로 주당 5달러 미만 회사 주식을 샀다가 다른 회사 인수로 3배가 된 경험을 소개하며, 실험과 학습이 중요하다고 말한다. [거시 환경: 부채·갈등·세계질서] 달리오는 본인의 생애에 없던 세 가지 현상(대규모 부채와 통화 창출, 돈과 가치를 둘러싼 내부 갈등, 중국·러시아의 미국 경쟁에 따른 세계질서 변화)을 짚는다. 과잉 지출은 차입과 부채를 낳고, 중앙은행의 화폐 발행과 재매입은 화폐 가치를 떨어뜨린다고 설명한다. [인플레이션 수치와 전망] 미국 인플레이션은 헤드라인 약 7.5~8.5%, 근원 물가 약 12% 수준으로 언급되며 상승 중이라고 본다. 원인은 공급 병목보다 지출 규모(구매력)에 있다고 진단한다. [채권·현금 손실] 머니마켓펀드와 채권펀드 등 현금성·채권 보유자는 구매력을 잃는다. 채권펀드는 약 10% 하락, 인플레이션 약 8% 가정 시 실질 손실 약 18%라고 예시한다. [긴축 스퀴즈] 인플레이션이 소득 증가보다 빠르면 구매력이 줄고, 연준의 긴축과 금리 인상이 더해져 고물가·고금리·고부채비용·유동성 축소의 이중 압박이 온다고 본다. 1970년대와 비슷한 스퀴즈를 우려한다. [출연자 전망] 단기적 구매력 감소와 긴축 압박을 강조하며, 현금·채권 비중에 대한 경계와 실물·자기 자산 중심의 방어를 암시한다. 구체 종목 목표가는 없다.
다듬은 글
the marshmallow test is you take a kid and you say okay you can have one marshmallow now or you could have two marshmallows in 15 minutes if you don't eat the first one okay once you start to realize that deferred gratification is going to make you better and so on and you start to count count and you say like something like how many days weeks months or years can I live if I don't have money come in and you start to focus in on that that's the first step okay so I want to save you got to start there then if you do that you're necessarily going to go save in what and then you'll start to get exposure two how these things are different okay then you start to care and then you start to learn and basically that's what makes the difference well and what it does then when it comes to the money that means money now at that moment that you don't want it you have savings that means I want savings now you got savings so the next thing inevitably that's going to come at you is where do I put it and then you get your choices and then you experience it and you learn right yeah because there's lots of place to put it for Investments There's real estate there's stocks there's building your own company there's different places to invest what have you found are the top places that people should be investing well I think first you you start with one of the most important things that you're closest to like is it your business uh first calculate how many days weeks months or years you can live on your saving because when you do that you'll start to you'll gain security you'll gain that okay so look at how much you're spending okay and then say how much do I need and whatever that number is you're going to need more than that because it may go down rather than go up so okay now do I have a year spending I think you you start there then you start to think um what are the things that are most important for me like and then you start with your your business or your residence that have a symbiotic relationship and that you know well let's say if you'd start with your business okay you're closer to that investing in yourself with whatever that may end up being that may be your best investment not not real estate not stocks not the market well it depends if you're if you're not you know if you're doing something where you can do it yourself and that's the thing but if you're in a job and and that that's not the thing right because you because you're in a different position and then I I really think there's something good about your home a basic thing about your home because uh it's nice forced savings and it also means that you you fix it up you you know you're saving you find out there's oh well if I add this thing or that thing and you're enjoying it so when you're enjoying it and you're controlling it and it's yours and so on uh that's that's pretty good and if you know if they keep mortgage tax deductions and so on you know there might be some benefits to it also okay but that's not a black and white answer you know so you could take a short principle and say is it better to rent or buy okay that's a different question maybe yes it but by and large am I going to move you know all of those other questions but so when you start with okay what is it that's close to home and how much you need a certain amount that's liquid in other words you got it in your house you got to make a mortgage payment or something and all of a sudden you're uh you know you know it's not liquid and you lose your job well that can cause you trouble so how much do I have that's liquid how much do I have that's not liquid okay and you start to get those things right okay I've got enough liquid I got enough okay not liquid and those other things okay pretty soon you're you're getting yourself in good shape yeah you do those things you know you're pretty much in good shape and then you're also having some experiences and then you go beyond that you know and then so you start to okay what you know okay what's a stock what's a bond and then you know you learn from experiences I I learned through my my experiences I started when I was a kid 12 I used to caddy and I took my caddying money and I I put it in the stock market and I was lucky in what happened to me by by the way is I took my cating money and I bought the only company that I ever heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share you know well I I was really dumb I thought I'll buy more shares so if it goes up I'll make more money uh and it was the only company it was a company that was about to go broke but somebody some other company acquired it and it tripled and I thought that was an easy game and I like it easy money so but you know you experiment and you learn I'm a global macro investor and economics markets and politics and geopolitics all matter and there were three things that are happening you pointed them out three things that are happening in our lifetimes that never happened in my lifetime or in our lifetimes and that I learned before I have to study past periods and those three things as you point out are the creation a lot of debt and money the second is the amount of internal conflict that we're having over money and values and what that's like and the third is that changing world order with countries like China and Russia competing with the United States in a way that didn't exist before so back to the point that you're making about that money it's a basic thing everybody agrees we need more money and we need more spending but if you spend more than you earn um you have to borrow and that creates debt but that at first it's credit so it gives you buying power but it you have to pay it back and that becomes depressing and so in order to avoid that central banks can print money and buy it back right but when they do that that depreciates the value of money so what we had was a lot of money and credit go out to a lot of people a lot of buying power uh everybody when they got it they thought Ah that's great and somehow they seem surprised that when they spend it the prices of everything go up okay but the truth is that if you divide the amount of money and credit that's used for spending by the quantity of goods produced you can calculate while the prices will change and so that's what's going on and that's what went on in a giant wave the Federal Reserve and the government together a giant wage and that produced a giant amount of inflation a giant amount of inflation is it eight and a half percent right now is that what it is yeah well it depends I mean if you it depends which number you're using it's um uh between seven and a half if you use year over year or if you take um the core inflation rate it's closer to 12 and it's rising there's some temporary influence but it's basically because of the amount of spending you can measure the amount of spending not because of the bottlenecks buying power is what matters right and so what happens is when inflation goes up faster than your other sources of income you lose buying power uh but what happens is somehow that seems more acceptable sometimes to people than if it was just taken out of your pocket you see if they let's say raise taxes or take it out of somebody's pocket everybody complains whoever's had the pocket taken out of but if it comes through printing of money and everybody gets checks it's more acceptable but what happens is those who are holding money like money market funds and bond funds lose the buying power of that so think about those bond funds those bond funds are like down about 10 percent and inflation is up over let's call it eight percent so they lost 18 percent of the buying balance so it releases it relieves debt we think of it as meaning higher prices but to some extent that's a rich man's perspective because they say oh now I have to pay more but the reality is you don't get more stuff from that higher inflation and so it bids it out of the hands of some people and that that hurts the people who don't get it so that's what's going on you lose buying power and so we're seeing a time now where you're going to lose buying power to inflation and now you're going to see the Federal Reserve also tighten money type money and credit and raise interest rates and when they do that that creates less buying power because when they um you know they say okay now you can't spend as much money and the prices are going high but they do that in their crude way of trying to reduce inflation but you get it from both ends the higher prices and then the higher interest rates you have to pay and also a higher debt service costs and also less availability of money so it's a squeeze like the squeeze that happened in the 1970s
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