저자: BillMiller—채널진행자WilliamGreen · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 밀러는 알리바바 등 중국 빅테크가 과도하게 할인돼 있다고 보며 장기적으로 유망하다고 평가하지만, 중국 리스크(규제·상장폐지 위험)는 분명히 존재한다고 본다. 영상 소개: 진행자는 알리바바가 작년 대비 40~50% 하락했고 중국 규제(반독점, 에버그란데, 메이투안 과징금, 에너지 위기 등)가 이어지고 있다고 짚는다. 중국 상황은 아무도 정확히 알 수 없다는 점을 전제로 한다. 시진핑의 의도: 시진핑은 급속한 자본주의와 개인 자유(잭 마의 규제 비판 등)를 억제하고 '공동부유(common prosperity)'를 추구한다는 해석이 제시된다. 중국은 지난 20년간 빈곤층을 중산층으로 끌어올렸고 성장률은 6~13%에서 최근 6~7% 수준이다. 빌 밀러의 견해: 알리바바·JD닷컴·바이두 같은 거대 기업은 해외 자본 조달 등 자유롭게 운영되어 왔고, 정부가 날개를 꺾을 수는 있어도 성장을 해칠 정도로 멈추지는 않을 것이라고 본다. 이 기업들은 일자리 창출(알리바바 1억 명 고용 언급)로 공동부유 목표에 기여하며, 정부 입장에서 '국가대표 기업(national champions)'이다. 밀러의 조언: 이 기업들이 점점 싸지고 있으며, 미래에 번영할 것으로 본다면 매수 관심을 가질 만하다는 취지. 리스크: 뉴욕 상장폐지(delisting) 위험, 홍콩 상장 여부, 기부금 등 정책 리스크가 있다. 밀러는 알리바바의 잠재 수익이 매우 크지만 최악의 경우 0까지 떨어질 수 있으므로 리스크를 인지하고 본인 기준으로 투자하라고 말한다. 진행자 결론: 중국 빅테크에 대한 밀러의 관점을 소개하는 영상이며, 최종 판단은 시청자 몫이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
william green from richer wiser happier he did an interview with bill miller and this interview was amazing they had a whole conversation about a lot of topics but in this video we're going to talk about alibaba and his thoughts on alibaba his thoughts on china's regulation and what are people missing are people missing something that no one else is seeing and we have to figure this out because we have big investments in china and alibaba and we want to hear bill miller's perspective on this and remember bill mill is a legendary investor he's been investing for over 40 years his claim to fame is actually beating the s p 500 for 15 plus years consecutively so just knowing that you already know he's an amazing investor he has those value investors principles he invested in amazon back when everyone was discounting it before the crash and he invested even lower when amazon was going lower during that crash so he's a very respected investor and we are gonna talk about his thoughts on investing in china about the regulation and what is happening but go over everything he said in this whole video this whole interview because there's so much good gems in it so but first we're going to start with his thoughts on china what's happening in china the regulation going on and everything that's happening down there so as you know alibaba crashed over 40 to 50 from last year so we see what's happening with alibaba and all these chinese companies but when we get down to it we have to understand what is happening in china from anti-monopoly to regulations we see the evergreen situation just happening right now we see mitawan just had a huge fine on it we see just everything happening in the landscape of china right now we see like the energy crisis there's so much going on so we have to try to understand this and we have to try to see what people's views are on what's going on and we always want to get different perspectives one thing bill miller describes is that we honestly we don't really know what is going to be going on what is really happening in china specifically no if someone says they know they really really don't know so have that thought in mind and you have to understand that perspective and bill miller's thoughts and then when it comes to that we have to analyze what is in the best interest of china what do you think is the best interest of xi jinping's laws coming to a new thought process when we think about what ji jinping wants so when it comes to jijin playing one clear thing is his interest in calming down rapid capitalism and all the freedoms people have like movie stars like feminine men like jack ma criticizing regulation but the key thing is he's talking about common prosperity when you think about common prosperity you have to realize that china has lifted a lot of people from poverty to the middle class in the last 20 years china's been seeing crazy economic growth from the six to 13 percent and that is just amazing and that's the goal of xi jinping so under that huge framework and goal of xi jinping and they want to continue that economic growth and this economic growth has been kind of coming back to like around six seven percent yearly so with that in mind what do you think is gonna happen to these big companies these big tech giants like alibaba like 10 cent those companies are thriving and helping people getting lifted out of poverty and that's bill miller's thoughts giant companies that have been operating in a very free way raising capital overseas they think that they're trying to bring that back in but they don't want to stop economic growth that goes below six to four percent because it was at 13.
they are going to clip the wings of some of the big tech companies but they need economic growth to continue to lift the people out of poverty and maintain the party's legitimacy at the end of it he says that if you are buying alibaba jd.com baidu he thinks those companies are amazing they're gonna do well they're gonna prosper in the future if you think those companies are amazing right now and they're getting cheaper and cheaper as you see them getting cheaper in the market those companies are helping to the goal of xi jinping's common prosperity they're giving more jobs alibaba said that it must get a hundred million jobs or people in the market so just think about that think about how big that is so all that is just gonna help the economy because they don't want a big disparity between the very poor and the very rich with all these tech giants because some people in china are still living on like 150 a month 200 a month like that's crazy when you think about it but that's how some people are living in china right now and the goal is to get those people up to the middle class to get the whole country thriving bill miller says those companies are basically the national champions and they want those companies to be seen everywhere he they're not gonna try to kill the company they're not gonna try to like make sure everything just goes wrong with these companies because they have a common goal in china but still you have to watch out for risk right so if you still believe that the vi risk is too strong you're not going to get the profits of the company because you don't know you don't know if you own it etc if there's a de-listing risk in new york or do you listen to us in hong kong you're afraid of that you're afraid of all the donations that china said even though those donations are not really donations those are just to help alibaba's business if you actually read what they said about the donations about helping small businesses about helping uh alibaba about growing the economy is just helping the business and the economy slash people so if you think about those risks yeah you avoid this company you avoid these companies but he says that alibaba's potential basically is like really really high but all you have is going to zero so maintain your risk understand the potential for both outcomes but the outcome of this position becoming very strong is very high but then your position can only go to zero so just weigh those risks and invest how you see fit so that's it for the video guys that was bill miller's perspective that's it for the video like subscribe share man i'll get back to you in the next video peace
Comments 0