저자: KirubakaranRajendran · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 故 라케시 준준왈라의 투자 철학을 소개하며, 특정 종목의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없고 장기 투자 원칙(시장점유율, 산업 사이클, 경영진 품질, 안전마진, 집중투자)을 강조한다. [투자 대상 및 배경] 라케시 준준왈라는 5000루피 종잣돈으로 시작한 인도 투자자로 소개된다. 영상은 그의 투자 원칙을 정리하는 목적으로 만들어졌다. [핵심 종목 사례] 타이탄(Titan)에서 800배 이상의 수익을 거뒀다고 언급되며, 조직화되지 않은 시장을 조직화시키는 브랜드의 성장 가능성을 높게 평가했다. 세사 고아(Sesa Goa, 현 Vedanta 계열 광물사) 투자는 원자재 사이클을 활용한 투자 사례로 소개되었으며, 약 70배 수익을 낸 것으로 언급된다. [투자 4대 원칙] 첫째, 시장점유율이 큰 기업을 고를 것. 둘째, 산업 사이클의 상승 국면에서 진입할 것. 셋째, 경영진(프로모터)의 품질과 신뢰도를 최우선으로 볼 것. 넷째, 안전마진을 확보한 가격에 매수할 것. [투자 방식 조언] 뮤추얼펀드를 여러 개 분산 투자하는 방식은 수익을 희석시키므로 비판된다. 대신 소수 종목에 집중하는 포트폴리오가 권장된다. 주가는 분기 단위 실적으로 점검하되 일간 가격 변동에 흔들리지 말 것을 강조한다. [시장 타이밍 관련] VIX(공포지수)가 20~25 이상으로 치솟을 때가 분할 매수의 좋은 기회라고 설명된다. 주가수익비율(P/E)이 25를 넘는 시기는 공포가 짧게 지속되는 구간으로 소개된다. [개인 건강 관련] 라케시 준준왈라는 말년에 여러 차례 수술을 받았고, 건강을 돈과 맞바꾸지 말라는 메시지가 강조된다. [출연자 전망] 출연자는 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 1~3개월 예측을 제시하지 않았다. 원칙 중심의 장기 관점을 유지한다.
다듬은 글
If there's a big head in investments, it's Vernon Buffett. If there was anyone in India that much, it would definitely be Rakesh Nduvala, because before he passed away, he had given a big interview on either TCNB or NDTV. In my four decades of experience, I have made some correct decisions and some wrong decisions .
Why do people think that investing is complicated? You should n't think that way. Therefore, stock selection should be based on a simplistic approach . He would have explained in detail what things to focus on and what to focus on . So I thought I'd explain that point in detail in this video . If you are a long-term investor and are thinking of picking stocks, all you need to do is follow the methodology he explains .
So, I'll explain what each one is. Rakesh's investment horizon is from 1985 to 2022. But even beyond that, their overall investment value is only going to increase. But where did it all start? It all started with just 5000 rupees. There's no way a very lower middle class family can eat like everyone else, not like that.
Their father came and was already in CA, and that was it . This guy is a CA graduate. So, it's a well of family. Even if it was just a little bit, that initial, risk-taking capacity would have been good for their family . So when I was about to start, he gave me 5000, and his family supported me very well.
But if you look at all of his stock selections, they were all at the right time. That's why he said that he needs an investment of at least a million. Luckily, I had a favorable rating when I started, so I was able to earn money from a large corporation right from the start . Even if Rakesh Junjola had an overall investment network of over 40,000 crores, if you look at the maximum contribution he makes to it, a five- stock company like Chesaco, Titan Lubin, NCC Crysal is one such company.
All this is done before becoming a multi-bagger, by studying the fundamentals of the company, studying the company's business, and investing early. That's why Sesagou gave him the first hand investment. So Chesakoa came and founded a minerals company. So, at that time, if you invested in these minerals, these metals, these stocks, you would understand that they are cyclical in nature, and that's what he would have said in that interview.
Suddenly, demand for that kind of company starts to skyrocket. It's mainly because of Trump's recent tariffs, or because China comes and imposes an export ban. Like this, if a normal company needs a few minerals to run its day-to-day operations, there will be a shortage of that mineral, and suddenly all the other countries will stop exporting it, so whoever is producing it will have more demand.
So it was at that time that he made those investments with Chesakov . More initially took his 70x returns on that one investment . Because he entered at the right time, captured the market cycling correctly, and made a huge return. It came and started to give him a greater conviction. If you look at all the big investors, if Rakesh Njawola has a network of over 40,000 crores, he would have contributed that even if he had invested in 100 stocks, we would have contributed only 20% of the stocks.
If you look at this guy, it's this one or two stocks that gave him big returns . If you look at that important stack, it's Titan. He got returns of over 800x on Titan alone. Considering all the bonuses and all the dividends. I think people invest when they have ₹3 in something . Only invest in that company when it is at the correct ₹3 .
Back then, there was a completely unorganized sector, and all that kind of stuff was sold by these gold jewelers. So Titan is the first exclusive brand, so there's a community of people who want to come to a store and buy our gold . They are willing to spend a premium amount on their temple. So they started saying that this Tata brand is "tata comes tit" or "tata comes tata" so that when they sell that brand, they will gain another credibility.
He understood the potential of this right from the start . Okay, when a company moves from an unorganized sector to an organized sector, they start to gain more market share, so they invest early. Secondly, something that many people don't know is that when I go to some investor-related meeting, I talk to the people there and when the topic of Rakesh Sunjuwala comes up, what do they say?
He started making a lot of suggestions to the management, beyond the investments he made in Titan . Once upon a time, before investing in that company, I did a detailed study of that company and found that this percentage of revenue in this company comes from this particular segment. So, concentrate on this as much as possible .
Make it a little more fun. So that will reduce your cost of operations . When he says that the profit margin will increase, hasn't he studied more than CA or something else? So he knows that accounting-related stuff very well. This management listened to this and started implementing a lot. In fact, it was during that period that this watch brand, Titan Watch, came along and started to focus on the normal Titan analog watches, like this Fast Track, and so on, as a normal younger generation brand.
The Impact Fast Track Helmet Slam also started to come out around that time. So many things come up and when a brand suggests how you can shift from an unorganized sector to an organized sector, Titan takes it and implements it . So this is one of the wisest decisions because instead of just investing in a company, he thinks of that company as his own.
Because he made that suggestion because he had invested such a large sum and the company made a better decision, my stock returns would also increase . They started implementing everything, Titan. If you look closely, you'll see that Titan's overall value is increasing tremendously . If you've seen it up until now, those holdings have remained the same since he made the investment.
So even if he is not there, his family is still running its holdings and all its investments are being looked after by him. But if you look at the portfolio of big contributions, it came from Titan . So that's what he always says. What many people do is buy a seed for ₹100 and sell it for ₹200. Because it gives 100% returns.
What more do you want, I wonder? But if you stop at 100% return, it would be a normal trading model. In terms of investing, as the company grows, your value will continue to grow . If a company grows by just 30% year-on-year, your capital will double every 2 years. Think about it. Then, if you've been with someone for 10, 20 years, and your capital doubles every year, it will add up somewhere.
So if you identify that kind of company, hold it tightly. So, in that interview, when I asked him another important question, he asked me what four important things I should look for when investing in a stock . What he said then was that there are four main pillars. The first pillar should come and be a business with a large market share .
So, if I'm going to come and open a shop or start a business, there has to be a big problem that that business can come and solve . Only one in 1000 to 2000 people have that problem. If a company came up with the idea of addressing that problem, it would lose market share . But some people come and say that India has a problem.
Those who have almost 500 crores or 600 crores have a problem. When a company comes along and says they can solve that problem, the market share for that company skyrockets. Even if competitors come, all companies are still able to make more money . So if I invest in a stock like that, that company's market share should be large.
So, if they had a wider range of products, I would consider it . The second important thing is to identify our company and invest in that company at the right time and in the right cycle. For example, when we invest in Sesa Cocoa, it is a fundamentally good company, but that company will always be cyclical .
A continuum will go into uptrend for four years. Otherwise, it will go into a downtrend. It will go back uptrend for another four years. Because demand for the minerals that the company runs will change, and demand and supply will change. So, what kind of company are you investing in and what sector is it?
What cycle is that sector in now? Is it an uptrend cycle or a downtrend cycle? If you monitor all of this and enter when that cycle shifts from a downtrend to an uptrend, you will have better returns. The third important thing is quality management. In India, there are a lot of accounting frauds like that .
So, even if there was a sound business, if there were promoters running it, then they would take a crack at the company. No, the reason why many companies like this crash is because the promoter is not right, so if you are going to invest in a company, who are you betting on? It's not the company's business, it's the people who run the company's business.
You invest by trusting them, so you shouldn't compromise on that. Quality management is the top priority. So, no matter which company you invest in, who runs it? Who is the CEO? Who is the chairman? Who is the promoter? What is their credibility? Were there any cases against them before this? No, really, do they have a good reputation in society?
You'll find out all this if you Google it. So, after doing all that, you can finalize it. Because, in a possible crisis period, how is that particular person going to take over the company, or if a big deal comes up, how is he going to go through with that deal? It all depends on who is running the company .
So, see if they have this quality management and invest in it. If not, don't compromise on that. The company's fundamentals are good, the stock price is good, the cyclical sector is good, but if there's a lot of bad news about that particular person running the company, then say no to it . The fourth most important thing is that the price at which you buy a company is much more important than which company you buy it from.
That's why you should always have a margin of safety when buying one. Suffer and Example is a good company now. That company is currently trading at 100 rupees. Everything is fine and normal in the Karanda market . Satan came and the same company did not make any fundamental changes. But if there is an economic issue coming, whether it's a macro scenario like COVID or the 2008 Lehman crisis, then all stock prices will be affected.
So if that fundamentally good company you have shortlisted here which was trading at 100 and is now trading at 70-60, that is a very good price. So, you shouldn't just jump on a company's shortlist and pick it . Whether or not a favorable situation arises, such as whether the company's price is favorable to us, it is better for you to invest when that situation arises.
Only then will there be a margin of safety. Only then will you be able to easily overcome a downtrend period . So, don't jump in immediately after being shortlisted. Some event will come along that will correct the stock price. Then invest in it, he says. So, they would say this is a funnel approach to investing .
The first big funnel approach is to have a large market share . So, after that market share was so high, what kind of sector is it in? What kind of cycle is that sector in now? Is it in a down cycle or an up cycle? In addition, we will also conduct a management quality analysis. Moreover, if you identify and enter the correct price with a further margin of safety, then overall this top-down approach is the one that most of the successful professional investors follow when investing .
Similarly, a mistake that many investors make is investing in a mutual fund . My friend has invested a lot in mutual funds . I have invested in Nippon Small Caps, SBI Small Cap, HDFC Small Cap, and Small Cap. An investment is a diversified investment. If he were to invest in just one small-cap mutual fund, he would have invested in 50 companies.
That's what diversification is. It doesn't make sense to take it and put it in five or six mutual funds. Even if you have a different fund manager, you'll still be disappointed . The approach of many people is to say, "I'm diversifying," and then take 10,000 or 20,000 and put it in multiple companies or multiple fund houses.
It's a mistake. Because the more you diversify, the more diluted your returns will be. The reason for Rakesh Sanju's secret is that he says I would rather do concentrated investments than diversify . If I get a 10-20 company, I will invest in only five of those 10-20 companies. So, which company will I invest in?
I will automatically start scrutinizing those five companies . Will the business be good? Will it sustain for the next 20 years? When I see all this, I get a sense of dread. I will be very careful with that company. I will make a profit from the remaining 15 companies. If you look at my concentration, it's that five-page portfolio.
When you invest in a concentrated portfolio, your wealth accumulates and is regenerated. This is what my wealth preservation will be if you come and I go to an equivalent company with 20 employees . So, you decide whether you want to do wealth preservation or wealth accumulation . So one important thing I saw in those war demos was that everyone would do a lot of the things I said.
But if 99% of the people fail, that one fashion wouldn't exist. They don't invest and they don't get any returns. If the returns don't come in within a month or two, they will close it and jump to another company . If you invest, you should wait and see how the company performs for at least a quarter or two .
So here's how the stock market transfers wealth. The stock market transfers wealth from the impassioned investor to the passionate investor. If someone here is in a fashion or overall down period and continues to do so without withdrawing anything, their wealth will accumulate here. So overall, you only have to invest in the company.
You really have to be passionate. That one must be fashionable. I have to keep a strong eye on that company for those fashions . I forgot about it for a while, but 10 years later, it's finally here. It's a fancy story. You should be regularly monitoring your company. But saying you're doing regular monitoring and then taking it daily and looking at the price is not regular monitoring.
If you do that, you will definitely be able to sow the seeds quickly. Is the company growing as you expect with regular monitoring, at least every quarterly basis ? You should not only make decisions based on whether revenue is growing on a quarter-on- quarter basis or whether profit margins are growing, but also on the daily price fluctuations.
You shouldn't invest in a house and then look back 10 years later. There should be regular checks, that's what they say. So, I always have that fourth point, right? When should I buy the company correctly to make it to the shortlist? Look at the P/E ratio. If the P/E ratio goes above 25, the market is in a panic.
The fear only lasts for a short term period . So fear comes and always lasts for a short term period . If you look at the market recovery, if the fear goes away, then there is a period of certainty and a period of uncertainty in the market. Now, when news like this comes out about Trump, war, Iran, and Israel, there is uncertainty.
When Apple's VIX reaches a level above 20 or 25, that is the best time to invest. Start investing in Apple . So overall, I'm going to accumulate wealth. If you are going to invest in a sound stock, the best indicator for you is the Bear Index, the Vicks Index. Whenever it is high, that is the best time for the market to go down .
Then you can go inside and make a purchase. It's like going to our discount stores to buy everything for Diwali and Pongal . It's impossible to predict in the market that this recession will definitely be at a discount, like going to a discount store and buying something. I don't know when it will come.
This is the level of identification for that purpose, the Wix level. Whenever everything is above 25 wicks, the market is at a discount. You can set a time for shopping and invest in stocks that you shortlist during that time . And finally, he concluded that he could only conclude this while it was still alive .
Even if I had assets worth 40,000 crores right now, I would n't be able to regain my health. I'll go and get a 1000 crore doctor. Give me back my health . Please make my office a mess. You can't fix my heart issue. Because it's too late to fix it. You're already 62 years old . Nothing more can be done than this .
I use to smoke because of you . I'll come and have a lot of drinks and then go to all the parties . Oh, I forgot to take care of my health . I should have been taking care of my health enough to focus on my winnings . If I had looked, I would have had an even better life. My family and I are very happy, but if you look at the conditions I am in now, I have already undergone multiple surgeries .
What I want to tell investors is that everyone can make these stock selections. Focus on your health just like you focus on winning a match . That is very important for you and your family . So always be careful about your health. The mistake everyone makes here is that we are trading our health for our wealth.
Don't do that . So always concentrate on that, that's what you said, and that's what you ended up saying. Because at the end of the day, even if he had assets worth 40,000 crores, no one could protect him in the end. Adanafact. So whatever we do, we prioritize it and focus on other things, otherwise we wo n't even be able to enjoy what we have .
Short and sweet, a big investor like Rakesh Jhunjhunuwala, whatever decisions he made and what things he suggested, I have conveyed in this video the overall interview. Hope you find it helpful, I will share some other videos on some other topics, Sis again boy.
Comments 0