저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치의 투자 접근법을 소개한다. 장기투자는 자산 축적이 목적이며 10루피가 10배 되는 10배주를 찾아야 한다. 일상 관찰(커피숍, 슈퍼마켓, 배달앱 등)로 종목을 발굴한 뒤 재무제표와 펀더멘털을 분석하고, PER은 이익성장률과 함께 봐야 한다. 소수 종목(10~12개)에 집중하고 성장하는 종목은 보유하며 부진 종목만 정리하지 말라는 원칙을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
During the 1980s and 1990s, a mutual fund manager consistently performed above the Slurp Rand deck . His name is Peter Lench, and he was a celebrity investor across the world during the 1980s and 1990s, so he might have said something in an interview . If you look at making maximum profit over the long term, there are two types of investors.
They must have forgotten to invest. Otherwise, those who invest must be dead. These two people would have said that they have the potential to make maximum profit. The rest of the people are constantly checking their investment portfolios, making emotional decisions and exiting at the wrong time . These two people will never make an exit.
So in the long term, their portfolio growth will be very energetic . That Peter Lynch wrote a book called Wall Street. I read that about 15 years ago. So, in that book, he would have noted down a few principles and details to follow . When mutual fund managers or long-term investors make a long-term investment, they usually analyze the company's balance sheet and fundamentals .
But the approach he has taken is totally different. He always has a simplistic approach. That approach is explained in detail in that book itself. I will break down the details of what that approach is and how we, as Indian investors, can follow it . One important point that Peterlin makes is that long-term investing should always be about wealth accumulation.
So, for that wealth accumulation, you shouldn't just invest 10%, 20%, or 30% in stocks. At the very least, it should be a 10-pack. If I invest one lakh now, it will turn into 10 lakhs over the period. That company must have that much growth potential. Only then will those long-term investments become a proper wealth accumulation over a longer period.
How do you identify all those 10 packer stacks? What he followed was a simple approach. He observes a few things in his everyday life as he goes along, and from that observation, he analyzes the balance sheet of any company that catches his eye, and then shortlists that company and invests in it. This is what a fund manager does when he joins a fund that was started in 1977 as a Medallion Fund, a fund that was started with a single-fund approach .
He follows the same approach consistently every year . Nothing is wrong. So when he retired, as I said before, he was only worth $18 million, but when he finally retired, he had more than $20 billion . But if you look at the Complete Secret Investing Philosophy that he brought, he made his investing decisions based on a few things that he observed on a day-to-day basis .
What kind of observations are those? So his observation is that now I go to a coffee shop or something. If I have a meeting in the morning, I go to a few coffee shops. I'll go to the coffee shop and sit down. While drinking coffee, we always say, " What's wrong with IT companies? IT is doing all this business in this tea shop ." Without talking, we can have a discussion about whether we should open a tea shop, right?
He had the same approach to investing . Even though there are three different coffee shops on that street, why is this one coffee shop so crowded when he goes to a meeting? If that crowd was large, how many of these people would have come and taken it ? How many people are doing Tainan? If you're doing in-house dining, how many tables are there and how much sales are made in 30 minutes?
He is starting to analyze Islam like this. So, to start with, he's making the brand first and easiest to identify. If there are three brands, people are associating with this brand more. Similarly, if they go to a supermarket and make a purchase, when they finish their purchase and stand at the checkout counter, how many people are buying the same category of brands and products of that particular brand and paying for them?
They observe all this on a day-to-day basis and analyze whether it is current or not. What people are coming and what products are being sold and why the demand is high . Once this analysis is done, the next step is to take their balance sheet data and then scrutinize it. This is the same way that Indian investors should follow the company to make a shortlist .
The example may be a small observation. Now, if you go to the supermarket tomorrow and they ask you to buy some flour from your house, what kind of blessed flour would you buy? Okay, Ashirvada Auto belongs to Idisha, or Hindustan Unilever, or something like that, you can start separating. So the next time you go to the same supermarket, your mind will automatically start looking at every company's share.
How many company ITC products are there in that one cell? How many companies are there in Hindustan Unilever? How many companies have this Colgate Palm Liver? You're starting to see it like this. Now you are in an apartment. If there are 1,000 homes in that apartment complex, how many deliveries come from Swiggy and how many from Jamatto?
You'll start to understand this when you come and analyze it in real time . Okay, maybe Zomato delivery is more expensive than Swiggy. Probably my preference is to come and go rather than to stay, and that can change on a day-to-day basis. It's not like they're using anything, they're using the same app your parents use .
Maybe it's what product they're purchasing using that app. Otherwise, which ATM in your area always has cash, which ATM is often out of order, so the service of this bank is much better than that of other banks, so you should shortlist this type of company based on day-to-day observation . After that, you go and sit and do the fundamental analysis so that when you make the shortlist, what is the overall revenue growth of that company ?
Overall, what is the operating margin of that company? What is the debt to equity ratio like? This model is the next layer of fundamental analysis . Many people do fundamental analysis on every company, and then go on to do a business study of that company . Don't do that. You know business, you understand business.
When you look at what it is and do fundamental analysis with it, you will have more conviction in that investment . So even if there is a drawdown period, you will hold . If you don't understand what that business is, you'll definitely exit at the wrong time when a drawdown period comes . The third very important point that all long-term investors focus on is the PE ratio.
Okay, this company has a PE ratio of 30. This company has a PE ratio of only 15. Half for half. So, they will say that this valuation is good and go and invest in that company. But Peter Lensen says that overall, you shouldn't look at just the P ratio as a stand-alone thing. Look at the earnings growth rate along with the P/E ratio .
A company has a P/E ratio of 30 . But if you look at revenue growth, if you look at earnings growth, it almost comes to 35% . Another company has 15% more. But if you see revenue growth of 5%, you would rather invest in a P/E ratio of 30 than a P/E ratio of 15 . The reason why that company's valuation is so high is because its growth rate is so high.
So please recommend this company. Don't just look at the P ratio as a stand-alone. So, just as Peter Linson sat in that coffee shop and studied investing through his own observation, let's take an example with respect to Dominus. If you're going to get a pizza, you'll be able to identify it as Domino's Pizza, just like the pizza that was normal before, 10 or 15 years ago .
How come everyone in our town asks if you have Sun TV in your house? They wo n't ask if there is cable TV. Didn't they come up with a brand identity like that for Sun TV ? Similarly, when Domino's Pizza opened its franchises in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities in the early period, it created a network effect.
It's like Domino's because of Pizza . Maybe a lot of companies have come here now. But at that time, we had identified that growth potential early on . The same is true of the autopsy. If I go to Sodi Mart, I can come and buy everything I need for one or two people . What happens when people say "at lower cost"?
They are starting to prefer these DMART stores over these unorganized Annachi stores . And when they have a big store like a Saravana store or a Legendary Place, purchases also increase. I think I'll buy it for 5000 rupees. But when I come out, I will have bought it for ₹000 . If you look at all the places with And More over Demarto, you will find them in one large place.
Covering multiple areas. So, the growth of the DM is also regular and consistent. So this type of observational past investments is much more useful than fundamental past analysis. So, the usual mistake that all investors make is to diversify by investing in 50-60 companies, just because I'm diversifying.
That shouldn't happen at all. Even if it were concentrated, Max to Max would end up with a 10 to 12 company. So, if you study those 10-12 companies in detail and own them, you will be more convinced to stay there . So, if anyone has any stock, please tell me the name of that stock . Even if you ask me why I hold that stock, I should be able to give a convincing answer in two sentences.
If you tell me why I'm investing in that, I'll understand the business behind it. The valuation of that business is now at this price. That's why I invest. Some people would come and invest in a company that is complicated . Just because the price has come down, I bought it at 52 weeks and 6 months, and it was just a price-based investing decision.
If someone asks you something like, "What is the best business investment decision?" and why do you hold that company, you should be able to give an easy answer in a sentence or two. If you know that it is not a good investment, you should not hold that company . Another biggest investor mistake is cutting back a plant that is growing in the same way too soon.
Because if you have 10 stocks, five of them will grow consistently . If you look at another five-pack, it will be consistent and loose. Instead of making these losers' cuts, they will make these winners' cuts. They'll start cutting and bringing down these losers' averages . So what's happening is why are only five out of 10 companies going bankrupt?
Apparently, their business is growing . If I had cut it off earlier, I would have stopped it because it was a huge earning potential. On the other hand, the company 's share price has dropped because it is not doing well. It's not about buying it, not selling it, not exiting it, but holding it. All of this will make your overall portfolio perform terribly over the long term.
So if you have 10 stocks, and something is happening in it, and it's not really doing well, you should n't even think about cutting it and getting out. Similarly, an airhead that performs consistently should not be cut. That is what will become the biggest wealth creator in our overall portfolio. So, Peter Lennon's overall investment decision is based on those five parameters.
Let's do the first observation. Observe and validate . Calculate the value of validated fundamental analysis. You just have to calculate and invest on it and hold on to it. This is the simplest philosophy for investing. This is what Fidelity's Medallion Funds did, and it has grown into a large fund that has been consistent for almost two decades since 1977.
So whatever you do, if you follow this five-step framework and take a long-term investing approach, what Peter Lynn said will be reflected in your portfolio . This is what I want to see in the next video, some topic, boy.
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