저자: RayDalio—영상진행자HamishHodder제외 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 2021년 투자 환경을 1930년대와 유사한 새로운 패러다임으로 보며, 통화 가치 하락에 대비해 광범위한 분산투자가 필수라고 주장한다. 부채 사이클과 통화정책: 달리오는 금리 인하(1단계), 돈을 찍어 금융자산 매입(2단계), 재정정책과 연계한 대규모 화폐 발행(3단계)의 순서로 통화정책이 진행된다고 설명한다. 현재는 3단계에 해당하며, 연준이 자산을 사들이고 정부 부채를 화폐화하고 있다고 본다. 통화 가치와 자산 흐름: 현금은 가치 저장 수단으로서 음(-)의 실질수익률을 가지는 나쁜 투자이며, 자금은 금·주식 등 다른 가치저장 수단으로 이동한다. 1933년 3월 미국이 금 연계를 끊고 통화를 공급했을 때 주식시장이 바닥을 찍었고, 2020년 4월 9일 연준과 재무부의 조치도 유사했다고 언급한다. 코로나 이후 수치: 팬데믹 저점에서 현금 100을 보유했다면 상품·서비스 기준으로는 디플레이션이었으나, 무작위 주식 바스켓에 투자했다면 현금 보유 대비 30~50% 높은 수익을 얻었을 것이라고 설명한다. 지정학·분배 갈등: 부의 격차와 정치적 격차가 커지면서 세금 정책 변화 등 내부 갈등이 심화될 것으로 본다. 부채 디플레이션과 기업·개인의 재무구조 악화로 디폴트와 구조조정이 발생할 수 있다고 본다. 투자 조언: 저수익 환경에서 60/40 주식·채권 포트폴리오를 넘어 금, 물가연동채, 다양한 통화·국가·자산군에 분산해야 한다. 현금은 안전자산이 아니며 매년 실질가치가 손실된다. 초보 투자자는 우선 미국 및 글로벌 지수펀드나 신흥국 지수로 주식 분산부터 시작하라고 권한다. 리스크: 팬데믹 재확산, 세금 정책 변화, 지정학적 불확실성, 유동성 부족에 따른 구조조정 위험이 언급된다. 발언자 전망: 명시적인 개별 종목 가격 목표나 단기 방향 예측은 없고, 장기적인 인플레이션·통화가치 하락 및 금·주식 선호 견해가 중심이다.
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but we don't think about the value of money and what's going to happen in terms of the printing of that value of the money and how to diversifies it well so i think those are the things that have to be paid attention to um in much as they were important things in years prior to 1945. we're in a new paradigm ray dalio is one of the few wildly successful investors who many look to in times like these in the past month the growing uncertainty around the pandemic interest rates unemployment and other economic factors have flooded the markets with volatility so it is completely natural to feel worried about your money and your investment portfolio and to wonder and question how you should be positioning your portfolio not only to protect your wealth during these uncertain times but also how you can set up your investments to grow your wealth as the global economy recovers from a terrible past 12 months today i have one of ray dalio's latest interviews where he spoke at a goldman sachs conference and provided us retail investors with some guidance on how to manage our personal portfolios in 2021 so sit back and relax and if you do get some value out of this video i would very much appreciate it if you could take the two seconds to go below the video and hit the like button these videos take a long time to put together and if you just do that simple task of hitting that like button it really does help me out a ton but with that said let's jump into the first clip if you could just start by diving into the first issue and addressing where are we in the debt cycle i experienced through my lifetime surprises about things that never happened in my lifetime before but happened many times in history before and um uh the three forces that we're talking about which is um there is a long-term debt cycle um which will get into um the the large wealth and uh political gaps that go with it and the rise of a great power to challenging existing great power happened in the 1930-45 period and happened many times before and are the big drivers not just of the economic environment but of of the whole environment so let me start with the the debt cycle um um there are you know in 1945 we began a new world order 1944 we created a new monetary system the bretton woods monetary system and then we created that new world order and that created a bull markets and stocks and an american world order for the most part there's a cycle that we're used to in which whenever you have a economic downturn the central bank hits the gas and can create debt expansion and that produces an increase in demand and that happens in three phases at the cycle normally it's interest rates um you lower interest rates and the economy turns up but when you hit zero interest rates uh which happened in 1932 debt crisis 1932 we hit zero interest rates um then you go to the second type of monetary policy in which central banks print money and buy financial assets to add liquidity and those purchases those sellers of bonds who get the cash go out and they buy other financial assets and we have the process going through and that's the second type of monetary policy so the only two times that that happened was not uh 2008 to 9 1929 to 1932 zero interest rates print money monetization that'll carry you so far and then um there's what i call monetary policy three which means that um that money does not trickle down to the population and go all the places that it's needed to go and that monetary policy means that there has to be the um what we're seeing now in monetary policy in other words the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy so that the central bank is buying assets of a different sort a wide range for a wide range of assets producing liquidity and also produ having the um effect of buying government debt and monetizing it and that's the late cycle of an expansion that's what's driving the markets now that's what's driving the economy now um for example um today the federal reserve and the the government is creating the liquidity that we're seeing in the markets and it has big implications for the value of money what is the value of money where does money go cash is going to be a poor investment and so it goes elsewhere so that's the character of the environment um which means that if you look at the returns of asset classes um and you take cash isn't it an interesting world when you have zero or negative interest rates and um then there's the desire to create a spread in that so the short-term rates are lower than long-term rates and there's and then when there's so much liquidity it is the central bank that is making that market so when we look at the market today um it needs the storehold of wealth and you see it reflected in all asset classes so that's the main driver and it also has very big geopolitical implications because as we come into this environment where we have the second influence the wealth gap the political gap it um means that the distinction of how money and the bills are going to be divided and how that uh will affect tax policy and the like will matter a lot in this first clip ray dalio goes on to explain his classic theory about the three types of monetary policy which are the lowering of interest rates the second being the printing of money and buying financial assets and then finally the printing of even more money to service physical stimulus in the economy and i've covered these three types of monetary policy in a previous ray dalio video it's something that he tends to bring up in pretty much every interview that he has done in the last couple of years so i'll leave a link to that interview down below if you want to see a full explanation of each of those stages and which periods of times those types of monetary policy have been used but moving on i won't spend too much time going through that in this video but essentially dalio is arguing that we are currently operating under monetary policy 3 whereby the federal reserve is printing a ton of money and buying financial assets under monetary policy too but at the same time we have a us government that is spending trillions of dollars on physical stimulus getting stimulus to individuals and businesses that are suffering through the pandemic that we've seen over the past 12 months and of course all of this spending means that the u.s government is running up a massive deficit they are spending far more than the tax revenue they are generating from taxing the population there is no way that they're covering this multi-trillion dollar stimulus package that's being or multiple packages that have been going out over the past 12 months uh with tax revenue so they have to use debt in order to do so so the us government issues debt and the federal reserve comes along they print money and they buy that debt basically handing money to the us government basically printing money creating money out of thin air and handing it to the us government to then provide stimulus to individuals and businesses and this kind of money printing and spending through physical and monetary policy has a significant consequence on the valuation of the us dollar so in this next clip ray dalio goes on to explain what he thinks the current monetary and physical policy what kind of effect that will have on the us dollar over the next decade well on the first point i think it's very much like the 1930s which means when there's uh it doesn't produce immediately a general level of inflation it negates deflationary pressures and what it does is it produces currency depreciations over a period of time in the 1930s all currencies in the early 30s uh depreciated in relationship at that time in relationship to gold and so what we see is the same kind of thing happening without a general level of inflation not just gold it goes into other storeholds of wealth and stocks is um an importance particularly certain types of stocks it goes into and very much the same as 1933.
in 1933 march of 1933 uh franklin roosevelt severed the connection with gold printed money um and made money available and that was the exact bottom in the stock market very simple similar to april 9th when uh the federal reserve and the treasury uh did the same thing so that goes into other assets such as um stocks and so on creates a a reflation it is necessary to be done because the consequences of not doing it are uh unacceptable the wealth gap and so on uh you refer to that we're in a situation where every individual every company every government has a certain amount of revenue a certain amount of expenses and a certain balance sheet and when the revenue goes down and uh to be low or inadequate relative to the expenses and there's not an adequate balance sheet then defaults and restructurings take place that's true for the population as a whole and that's true for a number of businesses hence the policies that we're seeing what what has been true in history is that when you have um an economic downturn that's a serious economic downturn and less effective monetary policies at that same time and you have a large wealth and values gap and political gaps you have tend to have fighting internal conflict and so rising internal conflict about how to divide the wealth pie um is very very normal historically and so that's the dynamic um i think that we're now seeing that will become manifest in changes in tax policy and so on much like the 1930s ray dalio thinks there will be no immediate inflation so rather than cash being devalued through an increase in the price of products and services which would be resulting in an increase in the inflation rate cash instead is devalued relative to other store holds of value and he names things such as gold and stocks and how that looks is basically if you were 100 in cash from the bottom of the pandemic last year then there has been very little inflation so in fact there was actually a significant amount of deflation so in terms of the cash itself relative to products and services there really hasn't been any inflationary pressure there but relative to stocks you are your portfolio would be far worse off if you were 100 in cash compared to if you were 100 invest in the stock market in fact if you pick a random basket of stocks then you may have a portfolio that is 30 to 50 percent lower because you sat in cash so while there has not been inflation relative to other assets you could have held you the cash has been devalued i think the question that's on the minds of so many people is how should people invest and what is the correct asset allocation for this sort of environment the most important the investment environment going forward will be very different from the environment of the past i mean think about it as a zero um and low very low returning asset environment because the liquidity that's in the market is driving the excess returns of all markets down to be low in relationship to the very low cash rate so negative real returns not good for cash until the most important thing is to know how to diversify well and what i mean by that is to go beyond um the just the traditional 60 40 stock bond mix or even the same countries and to broaden that diversification to include in that portfolio assets that might um seem unusual to include some gold to include inflation index bonds to inclu to think about the currency exposure to think about safety as different most people think that cash is safe cash is the least safe investment it just doesn't have the same volatility to it but it has um because they're producing so much cash it has a negative real return it's a tax um that maybe two percent a year you lose money in terms of cash so you have to think about risk differently and you have to diversify best that's the most important thing to have a well-diversified portfolio it's so the uncertainties that we have today are so great in terms of all the things i mentioned the tax policies the geopolitical certainly we must experience it with the virus you know will the next wave come back and how will it be dear diversification can be achieved without reducing your expected returns because of the way that nature asset classes are priced and then when if you're going to take tactical bets from those then those tactical bets alpha on top of that strategic well-diversified portfolio should have highly diversified bets deviated liquidity is going to be more important than before because things change in unexpected ways look at how in many of the cases the businesses that you one would have thought was a good business and let's say you're in private equity and and that you're with that company and so the restructuring the ability to rebalance and diversify and to make and to be cautious about making a highly diversified uh set of bets um is i think the the future but thinking even of asset classes thinking about the value of money you know we look at asset classes and we say oh do i want my money to be in stocks and which stocks but we don't think about stocks bonds we think about those traditional asset classes but we don't think about the value of money and what's going to happen in terms of the printing of that value of the money and how to diversifies it well so i think those are the things that have to be atta paid attention to um in much as they were important things in years prior to 1945.
we're in a new paradigm ray dalio says the most important thing for a retail investor to understand if you're investing in the markets in 2021 is to know how to diversify well going beyond just the 60 40 stocks bond portfolio that has been kind of the go-to for such a long period of time he thinks you should go far beyond that different asset classes getting some property whether that's through rates or buying physical property some commodities having some gold investments in different currencies bonds he thinks you should try and capture a wide diversification among a bunch of different asset classes in different countries in different currencies and that sort of thing in order to protect yourself and get a little piece of everything so that no matter where the money flows from one place to another you will have exposure to those assets personally i think if you're just getting started rather than being overwhelmed by the idea of having to invest money in different currencies and different countries and different asset classes i think if you're just getting started for the first time approaching the markets or you have a really small portfolio at the very least get some diversity in terms of the stock market so investing in a broad index fund in the u.s or a global index or maybe an emerging markets index plus the us market or the australian market get some diversity in stocks and that can be your entryway or your door opening into starting to build a diverse portfolio and then over time you can start to learn more about these different asset classes and investing in different countries so you can build that diversification over the long term of having a portfolio of different asset classes exposed to different currencies so that you can collect more of an average of all of the different types of store of values that you can hold over the long term but i hope you guys enjoyed today's video and got some value out of it i'll leave a link to the full interview if you're interested in checking out the full theme down there and as i said at the beginning these videos take a long time to put together so i would very much appreciate it if you could just take the two seconds to leave a like on the video let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below if you're interested and of course if you want to hit subscribe you can and that way you will get up to date when i am posting new videos i've been doing a lot of these types of videos recently so if you're enjoying these go check out the couple of charlie munger videos that i've done over the past week uh but with all of that said i hope you guys enjoyed today's video and i'll see you guys in the next video
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