저자: AchillesLara · 외국인
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S&P500 9주 연속 상승 후 조정 가능성을 언급하나 펀더멘털은 유효하다고 봄. 팔란티어는 AI 수요(정부·보안)를 근거로 18~24개월 내 18~20% 상승 전망, 캐터필러는 인프라 수혜로 8~12% 상승 전망, 타이완 반도체(TSM)는 중국 리스크에도 12~18개월 내 두 자릿수 상승 전망. 벤 리히텐슈타인은 차트상 팔란티어·TSM 단기 약세 속 장기 상승 추세 유지를 언급. 연준 금리 인하 기대에 대해 추가 인상 가능성을 경계.
다듬은 글
time for the big three three stocks three charts three trades Ben lickstein will take us through the charts here to take us through the trades Achilles Lara is with us founder CEO Lara wealth management here live at the New York Stock Exchange you were looking for that Santa Claus rally and look we're up nine weeks in a row it looks like you got it um how are you feeling now about we've just had this incredible run and now we turn into the new year yeah it's amazing what's happening here we're starting to see people taking profits so we're going to see the market go down pull back a little bit correct itself a little bit but I believe that the fundamentals are still in place to keep this rally going although not to the extent we saw for the last N9 weeks but still a steady growth cycle we're seeing more sectors joining the growth there and we're also seeing technology just taking off to the Stars right now yeah we've heard a lot of comments pertaining we were just talking about Dan I's 20,000 for the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ Composite for example had an incredible year was up over 43% in 2023 so let's get to paler and aim that one year is up of 162% tell me about your thoughts on this name yeah paler is one of these companies you know we were looking at Microsoft to continue the AI play but we wanted something cheaper for our investors so we're accumulating paler on a very limited basis right now we're looking at the stock to make easily 18 to 20% and that's being super conservative right now uh because it's in a sector of growth this is a hot sector right now but for how long we think it's a long-term play we think it could easily be 18 to 24 months and we're going to far surpass that number that we came in they have so many uses for their AI but more importantly the the government and security uses those are really where we see the growth in this particular company and of course the the private sector all right what do you think Ben as you take a look at pal Ander I mean the incredible run but Achilles is seeing further growth going forward uh for the company and the stock yeah Nicole I think this kind of fits into the narrative that Achilles was talking about in terms of the bigger picture as well right could see some short-term weakness here but that underlying fundamental narrative here that's supportive of this rally we've seen is still present here and uh taking a look here at the chart we have seen a little bit of shortterm weakness in paler we came off the highs last week up on that $18 level recently back down to around 16 you can see we're currently trading around 1675 right now down on the day by about 2% here but uh that's a a look at a very range-bound type trade that's coming to play after a big rally up in the beginning of May if you remember we were trading around uh $7 back in May earnings came into Play We rallied up into that sideways consolidation area that started in the beginning of June there and lasted really throughout the summer into the end of the year now that Spike on the right side of the screen there was up around 25 let's dive into this chart here uh Nicole I want to show you what's going on here and why I think again that uh the short-term weakness that we seen isn't not necessarily uh such a big concern here you can see as mentioned here the high conviction trade throughout uh this spring of last year and then the sideways consolidation this is just overlapping rotational value being formed here if anything I think this is very bullish especially when you consider what's playing out here as well look at this longer term from how we had been trending lower the move that we just looked at off the M lows actually came after we kind of bottomed out around this $8 level taking out 12 here was significant once you got above that you invalidated that Trend lower here so very bullish this one I think very supportive of uh the narrative that uh Achilles laid out there with that broader Market again not so much specific to paler but uh definitely this chart is supportive of that bigger picture discussion yeah and so so he sees some support there I mean you're talking about 18 to 20% and you feel like you're being conservative for a longterm play there right yeah this is going to be a 3 to Four 3 to 5year time frame we're also looking at a sector is heavily favored right now and it's in really it's in its infancy right now so we see a long-term play that with some very bullish signals okay next up caterpillar so caterpillar one year is up about 22% it's trading at 294 it's been on a recent up Trend and hitting 52 we highs as well I see $299 um your thoughts there yeah there's some great things going on with uh caterpillar right now first off is it a growth stock or is it a value stock it's sure acting like a growth stock right now people forget that there's a dividend attached to this particular stock but we're seeing growth in this particular company on a continuous basis we saw that 20 plus per last year we're seeing continued moved up on the numbers right now we're seeing some pullback right now some resistance right now now but the long-term trend for a company like this we're looking 8 to 12% this is very conservative and I don't want people to forget that this is a conservative company but the infrastructure play overall is going to help this trend that caterpillar is going through right now and it's going to do well going forward I mean you must have loved that winning streak remember we saw the earnings and then you just saw it shoed up it had uh almost 20% gains in one month what a winning streak that was um what do you think here Ben when you take a look at this chart here well Nicole as Traders were always reminded that uh past results are not uh an indication of future expectations but I always say the trend is your friend continuation more likely than change and we're definitely seeing a well- defined trend of The Upside and cap so along lines of that bullish narrative very supportive of that when you look at the chart you're going to see why High conviction trade to the upside sideways consolidation ky's mentioned how we just came off that high recently up around 299 back down to 293 where we're currently trading slightly lower on the day but let me show you what's going on here because this is a pattern that we talk a lot about right High conviction trade of the upside that vertical type price activity where you see higher highs and higher lows and then we get into that sideways overlapping rotational price activity where we're currently consolidating around this 293 level now let's take a step back because you're going to see this pattern repeat itself over and over again this is why as traders that are looking to position with the trend you're looking to buy into one of the lower extreme of these ranges these value areas that forms or by an initiative type breakout but basically this is a bull type pattern here you're looking to grab a hold of the horns and hope it continues we're again currently balancing around 293 as long as we hold up above 260 on this hourly candle chart off of earnings we were down around 223 going back to the beginning of November uh uh that was a big bull move up here and again still holding on to those gains taking a look here again as we take a step back and distance ourselves a little bit going back to 2020 you're going to see similar pattern that high conviction trade to the upside sideways consolidation washer a Pete and then look Nicole appears as if we just went vertical here recently something to keep an eye on in the beginning of the year but on all three time frames very bullish okay so where do you think this one can head um especially as we just showed that vertical move um at 293 today do you see 15% upside here as well I'm looking at 8 to 12% you know we're really conservative on this stock because it's history hasn't been to show that kind of growth before so we got to be conservative we got to pull back on our expectations all right and then there's taian semi um semiconductors are always fun to watch your thoughts on this name yeah uh it it makes our heartbeat a little bit it's like Intel when it does really well it does really well but then it think of the whole sector uh this is a stock that right now has barring any geopolitical problems that we see in the region I mean there's all this talk about China invading Taiwan and that is the big black cloud I say but even then the stock like this we're looking at a decent double digigit increase in a 12 18mon time frame we're looking for an upside of more than 177% in that time we believe that the trend with this particular stock is overall positive and we believe that the sector it's going to follow what the sector is doing the sector is doing really well right now and this is just going to Trend upward for now oh okay so likes the sector but this one has the upswing potential so your thoughts here Ben on Taiwan semi you know this is a lot like paler in many ways short-term weakness and uh that's probably what Achilles was referring to in terms of what has investors a little bit uneasy and some of the intraday volatility we see concerns tied to China Weighing on price activity as of recent which you can see on this uh more granular time frame but as we take a step back you're going to see long-term strength here so again short-term weakness but a bullish pattern playing out when you go all the way back to the fall lows that we saw back in September around 88 three well-defined areas of consolidation that formed at higher and higher levels currently balancing around 103 as we mentioned some recent weakness but still holding above 100 that's a key area and maybe even more notable I think would be 98 if we were to take out that area again and spend some time below that then youd inv validate this working assumption that we're trending higher that value is moving to the upside but let's step back here one more time and add a little bit uh more time to this chart here now we're going back to the fall of uh uh last year again when we were trading around 61 you can see these areas of consolidation value that's moved at higher higher levels you can see again even the move that we just mentioned off the October lows here from last year I'm sorry fall of uh 2022 we're looking at here and the move off the lows from last year so uh again a significant move to the upside here very much uh in line the technicals that is are with that fundamental uh Nar narrative that Achilles is laying out all right thank you for that Ben and achilles final thoughts yeah uh this whole sector I think the market is whole barring any interest rate moves to the upside we should start to see the market move all but don't forget that the FED has indicated they may want to raise interest rates again and we have to be conent of that if we're going to make money going forward I know everybody's betting on the six Cuts but I mean it's still alive they still have live meeting is coming up even in January all right Achilles laa Ben lonstein The Big Three first one of the new year thank you both very much
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