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Monday to you so I'm going to start off by going over the Bitcoin report for the day why did I short Bitcoin in the short term and then we'll go over the traditional market update and I'll talk about Tesla Pinterest and a couple of other stocks that we're looking at and whether there are good opportunities there in the market so let us get right into it alright so looking at Bitcoin here we have the X BT USD which is the perpetual inverse swap contract on bit mix and the reason I'm looking at this is this is just where I long and short Bitcoin right where we're not trading Bitcoin on the spot market you're not buying and selling Bitcoin you're trading in a futures market so the reason that I shorted Bitcoin in the short term and I sent this out in the trade alerts obviously if you want access to those tread alerts link is in the description you get access to all of my entries and exits both in the crypto and the stock market as well so after dropping from the 200 moving average which is this green line here that you see here it held support for about a couple of weeks and then we fell from there so what typically happens both with stocks and crypto is you know levels of support and resistance get retested after being broken so this was broken we retested it back here in November 8th and then we tried to hit it again yesterday so after I saw that rejection I I sent out an alert for a short and this is a relatively low-risk play right because your entry your stop limit can actually be very close to where your entry is right and so since we have this 200-day moving average here now serving as resistance you can actually have a stop limit that's very close to that so after I saw that rejection again it very low-risk high-reward play took a short on Bitcoin my range for my target range for you know where to take profits was between 85 and 86 hundred dollars and the reason is just because of this previous level that we see here on Bitcoin so we actually fell down to 85 71 just in that range at that point once it ranges hit you could set a trailing stop in order to take profits so that if the trade goes against your position by a certain percentage or a certain dollar amount then you exit the trade safely and if you did even just you know something as low-risk is a 5x leverage you would have made around 30% 10x you would have made around 60% on this trade so that is why I shorted Bitcoin in the short term now where do I think it's gonna go I've made it clear that that I do think Bitcoin and let me get out of the bit Mex chart real quick and go to the spot market that way the volume levels and whatnot are are accurate so here we're looking at Bitcoin on Finance against tether oh and also there was a confluence level the the target for my short there was a confluence level between the 50-day moving average which is this orange line right here and the 0.618 moving average or the 0.618 fib level here which is at around 8500 so when you have a confluence of indicators signifying a certain level to you then that is more assurance that that level is potentially a key level and one that you should pay attention to and one that you can base your trades around so what do I think bitcoins going in the short term well I've said this before I do think that we are going to drop I do have a bi set up at around 7800 now the reason I say that we're gonna drop is because Bitcoin is it is readily giving up these areas of support here like I said the 200-day moving average we were there for about couple of weeks fell below that came back to retested got rejected pretty easily the volume is just looking terrible the vfi is below zero continues to trade flatly the MACD this is the El MACD which is the logarithmic back d read up on it I don't want to go too much into it now but there's a subtle difference between the MACD and the El MACD if you do if you are interested in this hit me up in the comments section and I'll give you access to the to the script for this trading in together I'll give it to you for free it's not mine by the way but you know I did find it on trading view a while back so if you look at the El MACD against a law the logarithmic chart you'll see that it's actually very accurate when there's a bullish crossover the the price moving up when there's a bearish crossover the price moving down so the El MACD the terrible volume the our side declining and the fact that we keep breaking these levels of support as well as the death cross between the 50 and the 200 that you see here that occurred in the last week of October I do think that the most plausible move is a move down now we are still within this long descending channel right so I don't expect us to break to something crazy like 3,000 just yet I'm not really into those types of hyperbolic predictions anyway I like to stay within the trend until the trend expires and so this trend obviously the descending channel the typical break is a break to the upside so I do think that we will when I say move down just within this channel itself but when we do finally break out we will break to to the upside during the next bull rally now obviously we're not fortune teller so it's not a necessity that we break down we could easily by the end of the year just start breaking up from here but you know based on the things that I discussed earlier the volume the momentum the death cross etc I think the most plausible move is a move down plus I don't think that there is an opportunity for a short squeeze here because if you take a look at the shorts you'll see that we don't have a lot of shorts to leverage for a short squeeze shorts are still at a relative low here after forming this double bottom so I do think that we need shorts you know climbing shorts in order for there to be a short squeeze opportunity so let me just go back to the Bitcoin spot chart and that is why I say that you know that the the next move the next plausible move is a move down now I do have a by like I said set up around 7800 and the reason is obviously you could set a buy at the support of this level here which is at around 7,200 but then you're in a situation where you're trying to catch the bottom and you know if you do that 9 out of 10 times you're going to be losing so I would rather average in my buys you know I'll put in a buy 7800 the spot market if we do end up going down to 7,200 I'll put in another buy for Bitcoin at that point alright so that is the Bitcoin update again where I send out my levels for all of my trades that I'm making in the cryptocurrency and the stock market obviously we're trading more than just Bitcoin so sign up if you want access to that if you need help with technical analysis or would like one-on-one coaching that same link is also in the description I do cap the number of people that I take per month just to make it worthwhile for you and also I just don't have that much time so but yeah hit me up same link is also in the description let us jump to the traditional market update alright so looking at the traditional markets we have a bit of a retracement today on most of the indices except for the Dow is relatively unchanged SP down about a quarter of a percent the Nasdaq down about a tenth of a percent not too much going on in the traditional market so let us take a look at a couple of stocks individually Tesla so should you buy Tesla here well Tesla is looking extremely bullish not only did they beat their earnings you know that the the earnings estimate was supposed to be a negative earnings estimate and they ended up with a positive earnings estimate beating it by you know around a hundred and fifty percent plus the amount of free cash flow that they have 371 million dollars in free cash flow now here is the interesting thing with Tesla if you are a long term investor right this is extremely bullish you see the Golden Cross here on the one day between the 50 and the 200 you see the insane amounts of volume coming in both on the volume bar as well as the VF I is now over 0 again and it is steadily climbing up you see that the MACD the El MACD moving up the RSI moving up so if you're a long-term buyer yeah I mean obviously Tesla is looking extremely bullish and there looks to be a clear path in the long term to at least this 380 mark that it has hit a couple of times within the last couple of years three times three or four times actually oh wow actually one two three four five times in the lab two or three years so you know there there seems to be a clear path to there it's a relatively easy play and I do think that that Tesla will eventually break this especially if it continues to generate more free cash flows if it continues to surprise in the earnings department if it does you know scale up its production in its China Factory but in the short term there is a plausible short opportunity on Tesla and I'm talking about the very short term if you're not an experienced short term trader or you don't know how shorts work obviously do you know I would not advise anybody to take this approach you have to know how to diligently get into and out of your positions but every time Tesla is majorly overbought on the RSI the the scenario that I can like it liken it to is back here in 2017 and the reason I say that is because that's the last time that we saw you know majorly overbought on the RSI with the Golden Cross same as we saw as we see now in November 2000 and 19 so obviously in the long term Tesla did continue its upward path to that 380 mark however in the short term after being majorly over overbought you do tend to see a retracement and Tesla does this quite often you see here in June 2018 majorly overbought and you see a retracement now in terms of how how far down can Tesla retrace - well you can measure this one here using a fib retracement right so if we measure the swing load of swing high you see that Tesla dropped to around the point 3 - fib level before continuing its uptrend this is after being bought overbought on the RSI after forming the golden cross so in the same vein you can actually you know look at at Tesla here and the inverse of the point 3 2 is the point 6 180 so I don't have to redraw the the fib level but you can expect Tesla to drop I don't know if it will drop below 300 but you know this is a good target the the point 6 1 a or really the point 3 a - if you're going down is a good target for Tesla's short and again this is in the very short-term only based on the fact that we're majorly overbought here it's a relatively low-risk play I don't advise this as a long-term strategy long term I'm very bullish on Tesla and I do think that well here's the funny thing is that shorts or options right if you're shorting through options or we're really created as a way to hedge against your holdings so if you did hold Tesla for the long term but you expect a Tesla to decline or retrace in the short term then you can leverage the the use of options in order to hedge against your long term position or protect your long term position right that's really why options were initially created and futures for that matter is so that you know investors who are holding commodities or stocks long term can hedge against short-term movement so you can actually be both you know long on Tesla in the long term and you can short through the use of options through the use of put options or selling call options right you can short Tesla in the short term leveraging a potential retracement to this $300 level or 303 level so that's actually what I'm planning on doing like I said there is a a great long term opportunity on Tesla to at least a 380 level I do think we'll eventually break through but in the short term you could hedge that that position by using options or just going short if if you know what you're doing obviously another stock that I'm looking at is Pinterest Pinterest took a just you know you see this gap down took a beating last week let's measure this price move down it actually from close to open it declined about 22% in one day obviously recovered just a bit but you know these opportunities here Pinterest I earlier this year so it really doesn't have much history to go by but again this could be a very low-risk play because you could set a stop limit very close to where your entry is you see that it is majorly oversold for the first time on the RSI like I said not a lot of history so the first time is not indicative of much however you know buying a major social media platform and it's early days could be very lucrative as we saw with obviously Facebook as we saw with snapchat right or snap obviously buying at the IPO if we take a look at snap actually you'll see if you bought at the IPO you're still losing and you know this is almost over two years ago so if you bought at the IPO level you know you you you haven't made any money you've actually lost money but if you bought at these significant dips when you know snap one all the way down to just shy of five dollars here at the end of last year then you're up a great deal so if if this is considered a major dip for Pinterest this could be a lucrative opportunity now personally based on history I do think we have some more to drop right I don't think Pinterest is it hasn't turned a profit yet I don't think and it continues to disappoint on its earnings also if you look at the history of something like Twitter I mean Twitter even if you bought it back in at IPO 2 1 2013 you'd still be losing money if you bought around the IPO range right it wasn't until it crashed all the way down to you know around $13 that Twitter became a lucrative opportunity at its current price point and it took three years for it to crash down to $13 so you know I I do I if I do buy Pinterest it would just be for a short term move up to potentially fill this gap or or get halfway up there but long term I'm not going to be holding Pinterest at around $20 I do feel like based until it figures out how to make money we will potentially see further declines down there could actually be a lucrative long term short opportunity on on Pinterest based on the history of these social media companies that were struggling to figure out how to make money in their early stages and haven't even seen even a company like Twitter like I said hasn't even seen hasn't even come close to what it I pee oh that anyway that is it for this video for the full breadth of what I'm trading if you want access to my entire portfolio I send that out again in the discord community if you are subscribed to the trade alerts and that link is in the description so subscribe if you want my full crypto my full stock for and you also get to engage with me and our fellow traders our group of about 500 traders where we exchange ideas potential entries exits lucrative strategies etc hit that thumbs up stay safe out there traders peace
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