저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경기침체 우려와 고금리·고부채 환경 속에서 주식은 향후 10년 3~4% 수익에 그쳐 현금(단기 국채)보다 못할 수 있다고 경고. 경기침체로 주가가 30~50% 하락하면 그때 투자하는 것이 유리하다는 입장. 반면 워런 버핏식 접근(좋은 기업 보유, 정액 적립식 투자)도 소개. 영상 진행자는 두 접근을 절충한 단계적 분할 매수 전략을 제시.
다듬은 글
things are going to get worse in the economy. There's a financial issue at the same time as you have this internal conflict, a balance sheet kind of um recession. Many great economists are predicting that the US economy is headed into an upcoming recession. And this is only understandable given the incredibly high government debt levels.
Interest rates are struggling to go down. Inflation is rising and making everyday things more and more expensive for the average consumer. tariff threats which have the potential to further challenge the economy and additionally alleviate inflation. Geopolitical storms ranging from the still ongoing war in Ukraine to Chinese AI companies challenging US leadership.
And even US President Trump stated that a recession is possibly expected to come our way in the next 12 months. Are you expecting a recession this year? I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition. So the question that investors need to ask is how should we prepare? So in this video I want to address what legendary investors such as Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett have to say about it.
And at the end I will show you exactly how they and other value investors plan to invest going into a period of uncertainty which can be detrimental for the future performance of your portfolio. Nowadays the structure of the markets and where everything is priced will give you probably a return in the vicinity of 4%.
Okay, three three and 3% 3 4%. Okay, something that might not equal inflation probably it' be very close and then you have to pay taxes on it. In this interview, Ray Dalio is warning investors for significantly more pain in the stock market. So much so that he expects stocks as a group to perform worse than cash, which in his opinion now offers a higher relative return.
For those who don't know, he became one of the most successful and followed investors through building Bridgewater Associates, which is currently the biggest hedge fund in the entire world, making him worth over $14 billion. The reason Ray Dalio is betting that cash is the way to go at the moment is because he believes that the current stock prices are so high that if you are to invest right now or if you are already invested in stocks, you cannot expect more than a 3 to 4% return per year for the next decade.
Meaning that he warns investors of something called a lost decade, which is an event that has happened multiple times in the past where investors have managed to produce little to no growth on their stock investments for an extended period of time, usually around 10 years, hence the term lost decade.
This is a term which other legendary investors such as Warren Buffett's right-hand man Charlie Mer and the investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis Michael Bur have also warned investors about in Ray Dal's mind the yearly return from stocks after taxes would not even beat inflation and at the current interest rates even if you put your money in US Treasury bills you will get a higher return.
The US Treasury bills are considered risk-free return by investors since they're issued by the US government in order to fund the economy. These are bought by investors, institutions, and even countries all over the world. And the only way that the holder of a Treasury bill will not get this guaranteed return is if the US government defaults on its debt.
Basically, only if the United States go bankrupt. Some economists argue that even if the US government is to go bankrupt, it can simply print more money and pay the interest rate to debt holders. But the biggest reason why Ray Dalio does advise investors to hold cash as of this moment is because of something called opportunity cost.
This cost can be even more detrimental to your portfolio returns than inflation since it basically shows the potential returns that you lose out of if you hold your money in one asset instead of the other. So to explain this, I will give you a simplified imaginary example where let's say you decide to invest $10,000 in Google's parent company, Alphabet, ticker G, at the current market price.
You may expect a return of, let's say, 10% per year for the next 10 years, which is a pretty decent annual return. However, let's imagine instead that you decide to put this same $10,000 in Meta once again at the current market price, which is Google's biggest competitor in the online advertising space.
You now may expect a return of, let's say, 15% per year for the next 10-year period, which is quite a substantial increase. The reason being is that if you compound this amount for the next 10 years, you'll get a much higher comparative return on your $10,000. But what Ray Dalio means when he talks about opportunity cost is he rather talks about the entire US stock market instead of a single stock.
He does not assume that individual companies won't grow in size and figures but rather that they are currently so overvalued that not much further stock price increases are expected from them in the foreseeable future. So by holding cash whenever a recession occurs, the overall market falls substantially.
So the prices of stocks tend to go back to their real value or even below that level. Since in the past during recessionary periods the market has historically experienced an average drop of around 30% where during the 2008 financial crisis the market even dropped to around 50%. So if you buy stocks at these discounted prices you can expect a much higher and new future returns.
So to summarize that, what Ray Dalio is saying is hold cash and put it in safe government bonds that you can easily turn back into cash which at current interest rates anyway offer a higher return compared to stocks. And once a recession occurs, which US President Trump predicts could happen in the next 12 months, you should only then invest in the market and expect a much higher annual return.
However, the legendary investor Warren Buffett has something else to say about it where his philosophy sort of disagrees with Ray Dalio's approach. Unless you find the the prices of a great company really offensive if you if you feel you've identified it, I think it's better just to own them. I mean, you know, to sit there and hope that you buy them in the in the throws of some panic, you know, that you'd sort of take the attitude of a a mortician, you know, waiting for a flu epidemic or something.
I mean it it I'm not sure that that uh I'm not sure that's a will be a great technique. I mean economic recessions are uncertain and even the sitting US president cannot predict if one is coming with a 100% certainty. Buffett believes that wonderful businesses are rare and when you're able to spot one, you shouldn't just sit there and wait for the price to drop substantially since that may not necessarily happen.
And you might miss out on a great business that could produce you great returns over the long term. For him, a great business is one that is within your circle of competence, possesses a great economic mode, and have an astonishing management leading the company, which are all concepts that I explain how to identify in this video.
In the Birkshar Hathaway annual shareholder meetings that Warren Buffett holds every year, he has often suggested that consistently buying into the overall market, also known as dollar cost averaging, is one of the best investment strategies which has proven to produce a great result. This is the practice of investing a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis regardless of the share price.
So, for example, every single month you invest the same amount of money into the S&P 500 index fund, which represents the 500 biggest public US companies by market capitalization. And you do that regardless if the market is up or down, if there is a war in the world somewhere, or regardless who is the sitting US president.
That way, you buy both during the best and the worst time of the market. So, the results average themselves out. This strategy has consistently produced a little over 10% per year average return since 1957. So if you, for example, decided to invest $1,000 per month, every single month at a random date into the S&P 500 since then, you will now have over $80 million.
Now, when it comes to individual stocks, these two advices can be misleading. One great investor says hold cash and wait for a crash. And the other one says that you should always invest when you see a great opportunity so you don't miss out on it. So for the past couple of years after analyzing so many shareholder meetings, interviews and I read the books from the world's greatest value investors such as Peter Lynch, Ben Graham, Charlie Mer, Warren Buffett himself and many more.
I was able to extract their best practices for investing. So here is the investing strategy that they took from them. So when you find a great company, what you do is something called dipping your toes or having skin in the game where after you have decided the exact amount that you want to invest in a company and have analyzed the business thoroughly, you take a small proportion around 10 to 20% of the total amount and invest in the stock regardless of the current price.
After that, you choose a required rate of return, meaning the yearly percentage return that you want to achieve and then make multiple growth projections ranging from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic using the discounted cash flow formula used by value investors that I just mentioned where I explained how to do all of that in details in the first video down in the description.
Based on your projections, you will put more and more of your funds into the stock as the price decreases, potentially caused by a market recession, which also causes a market sell-off until at some point you have the entire initially decided amount invested into the company of choice. In that way, you both get the benefit of owning the stock of a great company and not missing out on a wonderful investment and also get the benefit of a higher return if the stock drops or a recession occurs.
Navigating these difficult times could be tricky for investors, and if you're not prepared for when a storm arrives, it could be detrimental for your portfolio and long-term results. So, knowing how to exactly determine which companies can withstand one could be vital. So, in order to learn Warren Buffett's detailed four criteria system for assessing if a company can withstand an economic downfall, check out this video where I explain this in details.
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