저자: Acilyayay · 외국인
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the NASDAQ went down 82. that's a lot of pain and it's possible that would do that again but you do have to adjust for inflation there was very little inflation around in 2000 but this time with inflation running at 809 it does move the nominal value of the s p upwards and one shouldn't lose sight of that the second shoe is going to drop which is profits so you have even a mild recession you get a big whack from profit margins and the p goes down but also the earnings you're multiplying it goes down it is quite likely and plausible that earnings will drop in recession I don't include classic fangs as being in the super secular category I think you could throw Tesla in at its peak that was super speculative great company but a bit of a silly price there but the others like Amazon and so on they're great companies but I wouldn't have included them as super space and yes they're down quite a lot it's hard in a bull market to get your brain around what happens in a bad Market let me go back to Amazon in the 2000 burst didn't just come down as its sales continued to grow of course in those days it didn't have earnings because it was running on borrowed resources it didn't have to it was still growing like the week it came down 92 percent 92 was strongly Rising sales a brilliant successful new idea that went on to own the world and be worth a fortune how is it possible it came down 90 92.
think about that the market is pretty sensible and doing a possibly good job of estimating value for all the companies a little under 15 job in the time it gets carried away with optimism and by the end of that time has nothing to do with actual earnings it's all in the head projecting out hundreds of years into the future assuming the perfect conditions will stay perfect forever every bubble takes place with near-perfect conditions and huge profit margins and the market runs with that and assumes it will stay there forever and of course conditions mean profit margins mean refer and Good Times become bad times and that is a problem and the remaining five percent the market gets carried away on the downside and starts to be completely irrational as it was beginning to be in March of 2009.
it was getting pretty silly pessimistic I wrote a piece reinvesting went terrified that by sheer luck came out the day the market hit its low and it said get a policy get a plan presented to your committee or yourself and start to throw your money back into the market you feel paralyzed everyone always does and Now's the Time to wake up the market is cheap and of course that happened in 1974 and 82 which were classic lows and the market got down 7pe and what I call terminal paralysis sets in where you're so frightened you can hardly move you can hardly get to work forget buy stocks and that's of course as Warren Buffett would have said that's exactly the time you have to do it and it's only five percent of the time they're much quicker than the crazy bull markets if I'd been asked about would the FED get inflation wrong when inflation came along at any time I would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill judged the fed's record is terrible what is impressive is how much room they have been cut by the market I mean the market is incredibly forgiving to the fed the FED happened for 20 years 25 years to benefit from that amazing era as 500 million Chinese raced into the big cities and were plugged from marginal farming into highly profitable industrial system and then they joined the World Trade Association and made everybody's stuffed dogs and everybody's iPhones for that matter during that phase 500 million extra Chinese 200 million Eastern Europeans plugging into away from communism into capitalism that was a golden era Goldilocks if ever there was one and the FED got to take credit for them but superficially it felt like a golden age because asset prices went up because inflation came down and raids were allowed to come down and in the end rates were forced down and low rates may leverage cheap make private Equity deals wonderfully easy and profitable and they push up the price of real estate and they push off the price of stocks and that's the way it was and this time if you adjust for the passage of time the price of oil is not as high but it's still multiplied recently by three times so that is imposing pain on consumption and its imposing inflationary pressure we also have because of the invasion of Ukraine we have had some extra spikes in the price of food fertilizer and natural gas particularly in Europe interestingly they are now almost all of them lower in price than the day before The Invasion and this is a lovely example of how the stock market works the stock market is saying whoops there's so much damage from commodity price Rises etc etc we're going to have a recession but the recession isn't bad news because the recession is going to get the FED back in in our camp of lowering interest rates again and helping stock prices and we're looking out into the future and therefore that's the good news so the fear of a recession becomes a wishful thinking about future interest rates and so the market gets a reprieve for a while it's quite remarkable but it's fairly typical and that's what we're having now and that's why we might have a bit of a rally for a few weeks I think in the longer term to get the next few quarters who knows what happens really but in the longer term we are really running the risk that this is back to the 70s we have problems with the availability of plentiful cheap resources and we have problems with plan people to labor the birth rate has crunched in every developed country except Israel and China that's a very very important segment of the global economy to say the least and every one of them has lower than replacement level so in the end after accumulating lots of older people as a higher and higher percentage we start to actually have the population drop secondly we're 10 and 20 years in depending on the country into having smaller baby covers so we know with absolute certainty since they're alive already the 20 year olds arriving in the marketplace will be fewer and fewer for the next 20 years and we have not experienced this before this has happened incredibly fast China has gone from Plenty of babies to a baby crunch almost overnight their fertility rate that needs to be 2.1 is probably running about 1.4 and even in the US the UK we're running about 1.7 we've never seen levels like this so we're going to have a hard time getting enough labor we're going to accume simulate old people who are very resource intensive they need a lot of medical care they need a lot of people care and we're not going to have all that many people their old fogies is dropping steadily from now on for the rest of your life for sure and at the same time I believe the correct interpretation of the commodity data is that it wasn't only china shop the rapid growth rate for 30 years in China but it was also showing signs that the best and cheapest most plentiful resources have simply been mined or pumped and that we are running down into the second tier if you look at the trend the trend has been pretty reversively up since 2002 and my guess is it will continue to rise and that will pose a real stagflationary pressure for a couple of decades and that's why I fear this is re-entering the 70s and 80s if you prefer it re-entering the 20th century once again so inflation will always be part of the discussion sometimes it will be low sometimes it will be higher but it will always be on the agenda the same with stagflation there will be pressure on growth that we have not had we have had a glorious honeymoon period for 20 years where race always came down from where Chinese workers were always available and inflation was a thing of the past and it is no longer a thing of the past and unless we're lucky and have some sensible behavior from governments around the world this inflation will go in little waves and will become moderately embedded at best and really embedded the worst the risks of destabilizing the whole global system have risen and continue to rise it is quite scary but the risks are in the develop world too but the speed with which Sri Lanka went from jogging along okay to complete chaos I mean that is that is shocking isn't it the whole system it took less than two years to go from to an outsider anyway looking pretty stable to looking out of control it doesn't take much and when you mess with food the career Square days of the Arab Spring they chanted bread Freedom dignity bread Freedom dignity but bread was first and that was just based on a temporary 150 increase in the price of wheat well we just had another one that was 130 increase in the price of Wheat and there's likely to be pretty powerful repercussions around the whole of Africa the Middle East and who knows where the thing about these pressure points is it's often unexpected like Sri Lanka things you didn't have on your radar screen suddenly blow up bad things can happen anywhere in the U.S you'd have to say our democracy looks to be in the worst shape for 80 100 years or more through my eyes with attempts to overthrow democracy as far as one can tell it's dangerous times without a war and ironically the war May improve some days but it certainly increases the aggregate risk of some terrible mistake being in the end resources will become more important as I like to say it doesn't take much for the four loaves of bread for a haircut to become four haircuts for a loaf of bread in the end a loaf of bread is more important than a haircut and they have a lot of the world's resources out there in the emerging World maybe that will turn out to be a trump card we still haven't reached the utilization rate the percentage of people working is way down from 2000 in 2000 we had about as high a participation rate as anyone on the planet and since then ours has come down the Italians and so on have gone up we have one of the lower participation rates which is really the definition of unemployment how many people do you have what fraction of working and the rest are in a sense unemployed and we do not equal the EU the way we State the unemployment rate we're always very proud that we have more people not working than Europe
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