Charlie Munger: Why Investor Presentations Are Always Total Nonsense

요약 보기

Munger는 사업 매각자가 제시하는 미래 전망(projections)은 신뢰하기 어렵고 무의미하다고 주장하며, 이해할 수 있는 사업을 합리적 가격에 사는 단순한 접근이 효과적이라고 강조한다. 복잡한 보고서보다 본인의 판단이 중요하며, 버크셔의 Gillette·Coca-Cola 투자 사례를 들어 단순한 행동이 큰 성과를 낸다고 말한다. 특정 종목에 대한 향후 전망은 언급을 피했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. There's some things that are so intrinsically dangerous. Another of my heroes is Mark Twain who looked at the promoters of his day and he he said, "A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar." And that's the way I've come to look at projections. I mean, basically, I can remember Warren and I were offered $2 million worth of projections once in the course of buying a business and the book was this thick and for nothing and and we were given it for nothing and we wouldn't open it.

02. You know, we we'd almost pay 2 million not to look at it. I mean, it it's ridiculous. I I I I do not understand why any buyer of a business looks at a bunch of projections put together by a seller or or his agent or his agent. I mean it it you can almost say that it's it's uh it's naive to think that that has any utility whatsoever.

03. We just are not interested if we don't have some idea ourselves of what we think the future is to sit there and listen to some other guy who's trying to sell us the business or get a commission on it tell us what the future's going to be it it it like I say it's very naive yeah and five years out yeah we uh we had a line in the report one time don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut and uh it's quite applicable to projections of uh by sellers of businesses Some businesses are a lot easier to understand than others.

04. And Charlie and I don't like difficult problems. I mean, we we uh if something is is hard to figure, you know, I mean, we we'd rather multiply by three than by pi. I mean, it's just easier for us. Charlie. Well, that is such an obvious point and yet so many people think if they just hire somebody with the appropriate labels, they can do something very difficult.

05. That is one of the most dangerous ideas a human being can have. Uh all kinds of things just intrinsically create problems. The other day I was dealing with a problem and I said, "This thing, it's a new building and I said, "This thing has three things I've learned to fear. An architect, a contractor, and a hill." And and if you go at life like that, I think you at least make fewer mistakes than people who think they can do anything by just hiring somebody with a label.

06. We've come, excuse me, go ahead. You don't have to hire out your thinking if you keep it simple. You don't have to do, we've said this before, but you don't have to do exceptional things to get exceptional results. And some people think that if you jump over a seven foot bar that the ribbon they pin on you is going to be worth more money than if you step over a one-oot bar.

07. And it just isn't true in the investment world at uh at all. So it uh you can do very ordinary things. I mean what is complicated about this? But you know we're $3 billion pre-tax better off than we were a few years ago because of it. There's nothing that I know about that product or its distribution system, its finances or anything that really hundreds of thousands or millions of people aren't capable of that they don't already know.

08. they just just don't do anything about it. And similarly, if uh if you get into some complicated business, you can get a report that's a thousand pages thick and you got PhDs working on it, but it doesn't mean anything. You know what you've got is a report, but you don't it you won't understand that business.

09. Uh what what it's going to look like in 10 or 15 years. The big thing to do is avoid being wrong. But uh I have a question regarding global diversification just in general. What do you look for in a company and if so as far as Europe or Latin America if you'd like to be specific? Yeah. The question is about about global diversification.

10. All we want to be in is businesses that we understand run by people that we like and priced attractively compared to the future prospects. There is no specific desire to either be in the rest Europe or the rest of the world or far east or uh to avoid it. It it it's simply a factor that that uh it's it's not it's not a big factor.

11. There may be more chances for growth in some countries. Uh we 80% of Coca-Cola's earnings uh roughly will come from outside the United States. uh 80% of Guinness's earnings will come from outside the United States, but they're doiciled outside the United States, whereas Coca-Cola is doiciled here. Certainly, in many cases, uh there are markets outside the United States that have way better prospects for growth than uh than the US market would have, but they probably have some other risks to them that that that this market may not have.

12. Uh but we you know we we like the international prospects obviously of a company like Coke. We like the international prospects of a company like Gillette. Gillette earns 70% of its money outside this country. So if you look on a look through basis KO uh we might this year get something like $150 million of earnings uh indirectly for Bergkshire's interest from the rest of the world just through Coca-Cola alone.

13. uh but we don't make any specific we don't think in terms of I like this region so I want to be there or something of a sort that uh uh it it's uh it's it's something that's specific to the companies we were looking at and then we'll try to evaluate that uh coke is expanding in China well it u you know that I think I forget what they showed last year maybe 38% growth or something like that in cases uh maybe uh it's uh it's nice to have markets market like that that that are re relatively untapped.

14. Actually, Gillette is expanding in in in in in China in a big way. And the Chinese don't shave as often. Uh and and more of them are what they call dry shavers and wet shavers there, which is electric shavers. But but you know, maybe we could stick something in Coke that would maybe a little synergy at Bergkshire finally.

15. Uh who knows? Concerning um Mr. Munger, uh we know what Mr. Buffett's retirement plans are are. I was wondering what yours uh your plans for the future um concerning Birkshshire are. I've always preferred the uh system of retirement where you can't quite tell from observing from the outside whether the man is working or retired.

16. He does it well too. You know, a problem in many businesses uh particularly the more bureaucratic ones is that your employees retire but they don't tell you. And I I think I can speak for Charlie on this. So Charlie Charlie and I are are not in any hurry to retire. He's trying to outlast me. Actually, in your in your report, I noticed uh you mentioned Wrigley as being a company that has worldwide dominance somewhat like Coca-Cola and Gillette and was curious to know if you had looked at the company in any detail and if so whether or not uh if you decided not to invest, what were the reasons why?

17. Well, we uh we wouldn't want to comment on on on a company like that because we might or might not be buying it. we might or might not be selling it and we might or might not buy or sell it in the future. And since it falls under that narrow definition of things that we don't talk about, I I you know, we it's a good illustration of a company that has a high market share worldwide, but but you can understand the Wrigley company just as well as I can.

18. I have no insights into into the Wrigley company that you wouldn't have. and and and I don't I wouldn't want to go beyond that in in in in in giving you our evaluation of the company. Hate to disappoint you on those, but on on specific securities, we uh we are not uh too forthcoming sometimes. Charlie, I'm good at not being forthcoming. Zone 7.