저자: MarcoCasario · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 스마트머니가 이미 시장을 빠져나갔고 기술주·비트코인 모두 취약해 추가 하락 위험이 크다. 주식시장 분석: 나스닥은 12월 이후 급등 뒤 하락 중이며 200일 이동평균선 근처에서 지지 여부를 확인해야 한다. 200일선이 깨지면 2월 저점 하회 가능성이 있다. 개별 종목: 페이스북은 스캔들로 하루 17% 급락했고, 구글은 상대적으로 안정적이며, 아마존은 1600대에서 1400대로 밀렸으나 200일선과는 거리가 멀다. 비트코인: 9000달러 부근 매도벽에서 거부된 뒤 현재 7900달러 수준이며, 2월 저점인 약 6000달러까지 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 7100~6000달러 구간이 기술적 목표. 거시 환경: 달러 약세, 미국 기준금리 1.50~1.75%(지난주 인상) 상태에서 과거 1987년 시장 붕괴와 유사하다는 기사를 인용했다. 금리는 1980년대 고점 대비 낮지만 인상 국면이다. 스마트머니 전망: 기관·대형 투자자들이 포지션을 정리해 이익 실현 후 대기 중이며, 더 낮은 가격에서 재진입할 것으로 봤다. 상승은 지속 불가능했다고 판단했다. 트레이더는 대형 자금의 재진입 신호를 포착해야 한다고 강조했다. 주의: 투자 자문이 아닌 기술적 해석이라고 명시했다.
다듬은 글
Well hello to all the guys who came to this new video Marco Casario here today let's go and see what's happening in the financial markets this time we'll start with the classic financial market but then I also want to see what happened subìte coin because I started talking in the last few days about this strange correlation that has been created between the classic financial market and therefore stock indices and the stock market and bitcoin and how there could be or rather I don't want to say that there is a correlation but I definitely want to say that the smart guys, that is the investors, the hedge funds are exiting the market you can find many articles on the internet in the newspapers that talk about finance that show that they are starting to close positions especially in the stock market because the stock market is falling a lot in the face of a big pub that happened through a buyback if you don't know exactly what I'm talking about you could see my video from a few days ago in which I talk about this very thing well these investors are exiting in reality they have already exited and are not entering the bitcoin market which is why now and everything is extremely fragile we are really in a moment of great fragility for all the markets and so look let's stop here on let's start from the classic financial market and let's go and see let's go and see let's start with the stock indices not Sonia see the Nasdaq which is certainly the one that is suffering the most because the technology sectors are suffering the most the Nasdaq there and I said yes the Nasdaq I thought I'd excuse me for having said the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq in the inner basket of the Nasdaq index are part of the technology sectors so the technology section of the stocks and you see that here basically there has been a nice decline look here what a big pump since December what part does it remind you of this is not similar obviously in a smaller proportion but to that of bitcoin and look I can probably also let's see if it lets me put it compare yes I can try to put bitcoin btc us here we'll go and see I want to do something like this in real time obviously the scales are not maintained but you see that practically when there was the bitcoin pump here there was also the big pump on This market, you see here how high it went, then there was an initial decline in February, we talked about this decline in February, then the price seemed to be recovering, it had created a new high, you see here a new high was created but again a decline and now guys we are in a rather important moment because we are going to put the three, the three averages, I put the three moving averages, I put the average and the two averages, actually let's remove this one, the 50 average which was violated both in February and was violated again today it is the 200 average because you see here how close we came to the 200 average now we have to see what will happen if the market manages to hold these lows here and therefore get back close to the 200-period average and bounce back from it, vice versa if instead the market continues to decline, guys here there are companies, look, I'll show you Facebook which unfortunately found itself in this moment of market decline, it also found itself faced with a scandal, you see how the price has dropped drastically, look here what a market gap, priest here how everything was going so well at a certain point It's close to $200 and the first double decline, but this small retest, let's say, of the market and boom, a major collapse here, it lost I think more than 10 percent, let's go and see and measure it a bit, look here today it's lost 17 percent and that's really a lot for a stock market, guys here now we could go and put up this structure, it has largely broken the February low in the case of Facebook, but even if we go and see, Google for example, certainly more stable, even Google, look here, it's holding steady and this is the message I want to pass on guys on the stock market, many, many markets, many companies are testing the 200-period average, you see that the head yesterday seemed to have bounced off it, but today again a big bearish candlestick and I tell you that I say it all if it were to break this, well then guys, we can expect the price to really be here if we want to go and look for structures and look, we have a first structure here and then we have another one below here, about, in short, so a lot of room to go down, you will come, a really, really fragile market, I can go away, take it, let's see each other Amazon for example Amazon here it is also Amazon another important fall is smaller than I don't know if I got it from the right Amazon I don't know if I saw the market Amazon has in fact Nasdaq sorry I got it from another market you see smaller decline but still reflection we are talking here we were at a thousand we have well exceeded 1600 and yesterday it reached 1400 close to a thousand 480 as regards Amazon Amazon is very far from the 200-period average think that it hasn't even retested the 50-period average yet but apart from small examples the rest is really really falling and I read a very interesting article that talked about an analogy with the and the market collapse that occurred in the eighties I think 1987 guys or 1984 but I think I'm confusing it with the book so I think it was 1987 there was this article who said how the market conditions are very similar to what happened in 1987 if I find the article I'll put the link here in the field description but we are in a moment in which the US dollar is very weak in which the interest rates of the American Federal Reserve are rather low even if last week they raised them to 1.75 and 1.50 it seems to me that they are still decidedly low compared to the historical highs that they had reached when they were at 20 and they were at 20 right in the eighties late 80s so close to this crisis here and after this crisis the interest rates collapsed since 2008 they were practically close to zero and they are raising them again in these last months in these last months of 2018 late 2017 2018 when there is a dollar that is so chip that is so cheap and obviously the circular investments have turned and here there was this big pump on the stock markets pump that however was not sustainable exactly guys how had happened super bitcoin let's go and see for a moment bitcoin here I also put it here let's go and see for a second I'll open it so I have the drawings here it is and make sure you remember that I told you about the DAP cross which was the moment in which the line the 50-period moving average crossed the 200-period moving average guys we are even closer look here lose something happened here I had shown I had made the video I had shown you how there were some walls at around 9,000 dollars of important sel walls right in proximity to the 200-period moving average and you see that as soon as the price touched them boom and was rejected downwards even here we went below the 8 thousand dollar wall we are at 7,900 so here we are in a moment in which now for the stock market there are the lows of we have to take into consideration the February lows if they were to be broken and if the 200-period moving average were to be broken too then there is a real possibility of fastening our seatbelts as I said in the video and this morning because prices can really go down as regards bitcoin here the same there are the February lows around 6,000 dollars so if this structure doesn't hold guys and if it were to be broken here let's go let's really go there is a high probability that the price could go to this area here so come on 7,100 to 6,000 dollars, at least what the technical analysis tells us.
It's never financial advice. What I ever give you is simply a reading, my opinion on reading price action. However, you know what the reasoning is here, and that's why I started from the classic financial markets. The so-called smart money, that is, the intelligent money, the ones invested by those with enormous capital, liquidity in pounds, rather than institutional, large investors.
Well, those are already gone from this market. They've left in the sense that they've started closing positions, taking profits, pocketing the profits. Now they're waiting to get back in and they'll decide when to make prices rebound, to come back at low prices. Because that rise wasn't sustainable, both on the bitcoin market and on the stock market.
The rise in November, December, and January wasn't sustainable, just as this rise here wasn't sustainable. At a certain point, it's going to stop. So don't think that because they took their money out of the stock market, they'll immediately put it back in. No, because right now it's a rather unstable market and they probably want to buy at even lower prices.
I repeat, the prices are made by them today. The job of a trader is to be able to understand when the big ones will start to re-enter with volumes within the liquidity so as to be able to follow them and re-enter therefore at the right time you have to know how to catch the signal or signals is never one of the entry of the new entry of liquidity that serves the stock markets and the bigon and cryptocurrency market to go back up.
Well guys, to say that for today's video and everything, thank you very much for your attention, fasten your seatbelts because these will be really hot days. We'll see you again very soon. Let me know if you liked it, give me a light. Subscribe to the channel if you are not subscribed yet. Happy trading to everyone, bye guys.
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