저자: MarcoCasario · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 브리지워터의 대규모 풋옵션 베팅은 시장 폭락 예고라기보다 자산 보호용 헤지일 가능성이 크다는 취지. 주장: 저자는 주식시장이 과매수 상태이고 기업 가치 대비 주가가 과도해 거품이 꺼질 수 있다고 봄. 2019년 3월 만기 풋옵션을 대규모로 매수한 것이 이를 반영하는 신호로 보도됨. 근거: 브리지워터가 약 10억 달러 규모 풋옵션을 3월 만기로 샀다는 보도. 다우·나스닥·S&P500이 당시 사상 최고치를 경신한 상황. 3월은 차기 실적 발표 시기와 가까움. 해석: 풋옵션은 폭락 베팅이 아니라 보유 주식 포지션에 대한 보험일 수 있으며, 헤지펀드는 정치적 가정이 아닌 확률·통계에 기반한다고 봄. 저자도 본인 포지션 일부에 같은 방식의 헤지를 적용 중이라고 언급. 전망: 단정은 피하고 주의를 당부하며, 브리지워터가 정치 이벤트를 근거로 베팅한 것은 아니라고 봄. 폭락 가능성 자체는 열어둠. 리스크: 대규모 풋 포지션이 실제 폭락 신호일 가능성과 단순 보험일 가능성 모두 존재. 풋옵션 전략은 많은 자본이 필요하다는 한계. 출연자 전망: 시장 과열과 거품 위험을 경고하면서도 헤지 관점에서 해석, 폭락 확정 발언은 하지 않음.
다듬은 글
The biggest bet on the stock market crash was made a billion dollars by Bridgewater Associates. Yes, you understood correctly, the former Italian fund that opened put options expiring in March and for a total value of one billion dollars, it seems to be the largest bet on the stock market that has ever been made.
Today I want to talk about this in the video to try to actually understand why such a large position of this type was made, what could be behind it and above all how it could impact the markets. Hello everyone, Marco Casari. Here, the news is today, very recent news and for this reason I decided to make a quick video just to comment on it together to share it with you.
I have actually talked several times guys in recent months that we are facing the we are on the threshold of a crisis, we are on the threshold of a possible recession. The stock markets are overbought and they have price values, talking about company shares, that are really too high and above all that do not respect the real conditions, the real value of companies, looking at the economics, all this is a bubble and a bubble that could burst.
And today this news comes out where the Bridgewater Associates Match Fund, Dire Italia, of which Regali or directs the investment and trading choices, has opened put options. I remind you guys that the put options give the right to sell the underlying asset at a certain price within the expiration date.
The expiration date of the put options that were opened by Re Italy Os or by the fans, the former fan of Regali or expire in March, so it means that between now and March a major market crash is expected. But be careful, don't be misled too much by these mainstream media headlines that say the crash is imminent.
So if Sera Italia has admitted it, all this money on the market between now and March, it means that it can actually collapse. Be careful guys, because put options can also be a simple insurance policy on something, perhaps an exposure that the former fund, who is a fan, warned you, there is much more than a billion dollars, so a billion dollars for them is not that much.
It could be an insurance policy on all the stocks and on all the banks, so let's say on the bullish view they have on the open positions within their portfolio, and you know well, I also explained it. Here on the channel with various techniques and various options strategies if you have many positions on the stock market on the sub-stamp on various underlying assets that are bullish which are therefore long positions in purchase the only way to protect yourself not the only way but one of the ways to hedge is to use options in this case you are not bullish what you do you will open put options for those who give you this insurance guys it is also very interesting to see how the markets will react and how not the markets but rather the investors and traders behind the markets will react in the face of news of this kind because news of this kind is important news you know everyone can express their opinion on the media on television on YouTube making videos but then when at a certain point net fan so big will have such a large position with such a short expiry guys March is practically around the corner it means that actually something is watching many also give the possibility of an imminent crash in the event that he could win in the Democratic Party now I don't remember the name but he could go to the elections of the American Democratic Party I can't remember the name guys help me in the comments write it it is about a woman and this could determine the The collapse, however, Bridgewater immediately said, let's not open positions by making political assumptions.
Rightly so, a hedge fund and guys, it's based on probability, statistics and mathematics and not on what could happen on the political scene because that would mean betting. However, the March deadline is interesting, as it comes right around the time of the next year's corporate earnings. The Knicks, which have now been released, the last ones for 2018 and 2019 have been extremely positive and have pumped up the market even more.
The Dow Jones has broken its all-time highs for the first time. It has reached all-time highs. The Nasdaq has done the same, and so has the SP500. Guys, it will be very interesting to see what happens. Tell me what you think below by leaving a comment. As far as I'm concerned, this is a hedge, not a bet on the market crash, but an insurance policy to protect yourself because a former Panda and especially a character like Ray Dalio thinks first and foremost about protecting his capital, and that's the number one rule for any investor, so for me it's more of an insurance policy.
The same open sky on some of my positions because they are positions on which I do not want to risk too much open on the merit bus I talked about this one here on my channel I went to look for it is one of the most used strategies it is not the only one but it is one of the most used the problem of this strategy that requires a lot of capital but on the other hand Bridgewater does not have problems of this type guys thank you very much for your attention we will see you very soon leave a comment subscribe to the channel to stay updated thank you very much for your attention good trading to everyone bye
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