저자: 진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 비트코인 하락 연쇄 경고(전략사 매수 여력 축소, 채굴사 붕괴, 상장사 200곳 보유 리스크)를 소개하며 공포지수 극단 구간을 근거로 제시. 자신은 비트코인 약 11% 보유, 하락 시 OBTC3를 75,000달러 부근과 66,000달러 부근에서 추가 매수했다고 설명. 장기 회복은 가능하나 단기 방향은 예측 불가라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Michael Burray, the mega-investor from the movie The Big Short, who predicted the bursting of the 2008 financial crisis bubble, is now warning about the risk of a ripple effect in the fall of Bitcoin. This news was given yesterday, February 4th. Today is the 5th and Bitcoin continues its downward spiral.
According to Michael Borry's prediction, with an additional 10% drop, which is already happening, Strategy, for example, Michael Saor's Strategy, which is a company that is a strong buyer of Bitcoin, would have difficulty accessing the capital market and continuing to buy Bitcoin. So we would have less demand for bitcoins from Strateg.
Furthermore, additional drops could lead to the collapse of Bitcoin mining companies. That's according to Michael Burry. He also says that Bitcoin is now being seen as a speculative asset because it's behaving differently from gold, which normally holds its price when variable income assets suffer more, or appreciates when there's stronger inflation .
And we haven't seen that recently, at least not recently, with the reaction of Bitcoin prices. Furthermore, according to Michael Burray himself, approximately 200 companies listed in the United States have Bitcoin as an asset on their balance sheets. This could lead the company's risk managers to force CEOs to sell these Bitcoin assets to mitigate company losses.
In other words, if we put all these points together, we can see a ripple effect, yes, which is what Michael Burry predicted, right? And that's what would lead to an even sharper drop in Bitcoin. So, in this video we're going to talk about that. I'm going to bring you some very important numbers and two charts, okay?
But before that, I also wanted to make an important comment, okay? What few people do, in my case, is that I have assets that are linked to the price of Bitcoin, representing approximately 11% of my portfolio, so there is some conflict of interest there. I'm warning you about this because there are many influencers out there who don't talk about any of this and yet have more than 50% of their portfolio in Bitcoin.
So, when these events happen, he has a very significant conflict of interest . The tendency is for people to try to convince others, especially when they are major influencers, in order to increase the demand for Bitcoin. So, that's not my case, and I think everyone should make that clear, you know, give you that disclaimer here .
Let's continue then. So, first I wanted to tell you that this isn't exclusive to Bitcoin, at least not as of today, okay? The market as a whole is being driven by fear, rather than greed. I've already explained on this channel how the Fear and Greed Index works . And today this index here, which is measured by CNN, it's showing fear, okay?
In some specific graphs here, in some aspects within the scoring of this index. We're already at the point of extreme fear. So, if you browse, for example, a website like Iaru Finance, you'll see a lot of bad news about various companies and the market in general. So, the market is falling a lot, especially the technology companies.
And speaking specifically about the crypto fear and anxiety index, we see that it's currently at level 12, okay? And it rarely goes below 20. So we're at a level that happens very rarely, okay? The last few times it fell, it reached 10, but never less than that. And here's an important graph that I think we should look at: this one here.
I'll show you, I 'll explain it to you in a moment. So, on this side here, on the right axis of the graph, we see some colors. So, the redder the dots are on this graph, the more fear it signifies, right, in the fear and greed index. And the greener it is, the more greedy the crypto market becomes. Yeah, you can see it right now.
Now on the left axis here, look, we see the price of Bitcoin, okay? So, this chart here is interesting because it shows the fear and anxiety index for Bitcoin. So, when we see the price of Bitcoin going up, we usually see these little green dots, which means that Bitcoin goes up when there's extreme greed in the market, and Bitcoin tends to fall when there's extreme fear in the market, okay?
Now, what I want to point out to you is this: we are in a moment of extreme fear, and normally, with a more superficial analysis, people will tell you: "Look , moments of extreme fear are the best times to buy." Okay? I partially agree with that. But one thing I wanted to bring up with you here is that sometimes, even if you buy during moments of panic, it can take a very long time to recover the value of Bitcoin.
This already happened a long time ago, right? It's not certain that it will happen again, right? It's possible that Bitcoin could actually fall and people would simply give up on using this asset as a store of value, but what I believe is more likely is that it will recover. But it doesn't necessarily mean you'll buy it now and expect it to recover in a week, a month, or a year.
This can sometimes take more than a year. That's what I want to show you in the chart. So look, in some moments of panic in the market, right, when this index, the fear and anxiety index, reached as high as 8, okay? Here, for example, on March 14, 2020, we had a rapid recovery, with the price going from $0.00 to almost $ 9,000.
So, a 100% gain is achieved in just a few months. However, we've also seen moments of extreme fear here, for example, at the level of 12, which is the current level of 10, when Bitcoin was at 20,000 to 29,000. This happened here on May 10, 2022, and it only recovered that price around July 15, 2023, more or less then, right?
More towards the second half of 2023. So, more than a year later, we had a price recovery. So what I'm trying to say here is this: I'm not a Bitcoin expert, okay? I buy Bitcoin, and I also buy gold, gold-linked assets, various assets here to have a portfolio that doesn't just contain highly correlated assets, okay?
My idea is to try and maximize the potential gains from variable income assets, but with assets that have low correlation, okay? So when one asset is falling more, the other is falling less or even rising. And overall, I'm able to maintain a certain level of portfolio protection compared to people who invest a very large percentage in just one asset.
Anyone who has more than 50% of their assets in Bitcoin must be desperate right now. But as I told you, historically, those who bought during moments of extreme fear, like the Fear and Greed Index, right, or the Crypto Fear Andex, benefited, okay? But this could happen in a longer timeframe than you might imagine, okay?
So, there's no such thing as a crystal ball. I don't know if we'll see a quick reversal in the price of Bitcoin. He's going to go back to record levels close to 125,000. Well, today it's close to 65,000, right? So it's very difficult to predict. I don't try to make predictions, but right now, at the moment, that's what I'm doing, personally.
Bitcoin took a dip; I bought some when it was around 75,000. I actually bought OBTC3. I made some videos here about this company, which is a Bitcoin Treasury, similar to what Strateg does, but since it was at a relatively large discount compared to the value of Bitcoin, I found it safer to buy through UBTC3 than to buy an ETF or Bitcoin itself directly .
So, when it was around 75,000, I made some purchases. Now, at nearly 66,000, I've made a few more purchases. What's the point of all this? To try and maintain a large percentage, since there was a very large drop, this asset, as part of my portfolio, fell to less than 10%. So, to rebalance my portfolio, I made these one- off purchases.
So now I'm going to be more alert there, waiting a little bit to see how low it gets, okay? What I'm doing here personally is not investment advice, okay? Do your own analysis. I hope you enjoyed it, and I'll leave a video here for you where I also explain this difference with Bitcoin, and why it's falling, okay?
And there are several videos here about OBTC3, so I hope you can check them out, as it's an option for those who want to invest in Bitcoin but don't want to self-custody the asset. It's OK? I hope you enjoyed this video. Don't forget to comment here and tell us what you're doing with your wallet, okay? Hugs, all the best, and happy investing!
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