저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 위기가 다음 금융위기의 촉매가 될 것이라는 결론. 연준이 부동산·주식·채권 시장을 떠받치기 위해 돈을 계속 찍어내고 있으며, 그 결과 달러 가치가 훼손되어 결국 달러 위기가 올 것이라고 주장. 달러 위기는 미 국채 위기(소버린 디폴트)와 맞물리며, 연준은 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 올리고 통화량을 줄이는 상황이라 정부는 신규 차입도, 기존 부채 상환도 어려워져 디폴트 또는 초인플레이션이 불가피하다고 전망. 발언자 본인이 운용하는 펀드·자산운용사 홍보가 포함되어 있음. 투자 대안으로는 미국 외 선진국·신흥국 시장과 비전통적 포트폴리오를 제시하며, 신흥시장은 변동성은 크지만 장기 수익 가능성이 있다고 언급. 1970년대 달러 가치 70~80% 하락 사례를 들어 금·유가 급등과 가계 소득 구조 변화(여성 노동 증가)를 설명하고, 이번에는 은퇴 제도와 저축이 무너질 것이라고 주장. 낙관적 전망으로는 이 위기가 정부·중앙은행 중심 체제를 반성하는 계기가 되어 자유시장과 건전한 화폐로 돌아갈 수 있다고 말함. 언급 자산 중 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
what do you see as the catalyst for popping this bubble well again i think it's going to happen in the dollar and the reason i think so is i think that the fed will keep blowing air into the bubble until the dollar cracks because the way the fed keeps everything propped up the real estate market the stock market the bond market the whole economy the reason the u.s government can keep spending money is because the federal reserve keeps printing it but the key is at some point that money won't have any value and that's what ends it because in order to prop up everything else the fed is sacrificing the dollar now right now they keep printing money and the dollar's value hasn't collapsed so they can keep printing more and they're going to keep printing more and keep running deficits until the dollar collapses because until the dollar collapses there's no reason to stop i mean why end a good thing why rain on your own party right so they're going to wait for a crisis only this is going to be much worse than the financial crisis of 08 because this is going to be a u.s dollar crisis which means it's also a sovereign debt crisis u.s treasury bonds because treasury bonds are just iou dollars into the future and the big difference is when the crisis is the dollar the u.s government can't do anything to bail anybody out because all they can do in a crisis is print more dollars but if the dollar is the crisis then printing more just throws gasoline on the fire so this next crisis is coming no bailouts no stimulus everybody is going to have to pay the piper uh when we have a dollar crisis and believe me the bill is going to be huge you see them raising interest rates eventually yes when they have no choice but they're not going to raise interest rates until they have to because the minute they raise interest rates everything collapses you know and when they raise interest rates that's when the us government has to confess that it's broke and it has to start cutting spending hey we can't do any of these programs in fact we have to cut back on the programs we already have because we don't have any money and we can't get it from the fed anymore because the fed is no longer in the business of printing money the fed is in the business of shrinking the money supply it's trying to fight inflation so it's it's destroying the money it already created it's raising interest rates so i think in that environment not only can't the government borrow new money it can't even repay the debts that it already owes it can't even make the interest payments because remember the bonds are all short-term so the t-bills when they mature they got to roll them over well they won't have the money so the government's going to default that's what's going to happen just like subprime borrowers when they could make the payments they defaulted the us government is a subprime borrower too without the fed all its checks bounce you know and if it doesn't have the fed uh then it defaults and it's so it's what are the other it's either hyperinflation or default you know so you decide pick your poison so the for an average investor they should be looking at what now well alternatives to the u.s investments alternatives to the u.s dollar uh you know look at some of the foreign markets both develop that emerging which i think the emerging markets are you know going to be a little rockier you know bumpier but give you more long-term gain as the whole world you know moves past the u.s dollar and the u.s dollar is no longer the reserve currency but you need to have very unconventional portfolios because this is a very unconventional outcome uh that the establishment is not prepared for they're going to be blindsided by it like 08 like 2000 only the fed's not going to be there to bail them out that was what happened if you were completely wrong if you were completely oblivious to the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis it was okay because the fed bailed you out and you ended up making money anyway uh but it's not going to work this time so you got to bail yourself out prematurely and that's what i'm doing right if you're interested in you know having me help you implement the strategies then you know go to your pacific capitals website or by my mutual fund website asset management company this is my company here in puerto rico your pacific asset management and epacfunds.com is the website for uh my asset management company and you can speak to one of my representatives about the strategies and and how that we can work them into your portfolio i have five proprietary mutual funds that could actually be bought anywhere or you can have them in specialized rap accounts that that we manage at my company and i have separately managed accounts of individual stocks and bonds that we manage all overseas international investments so what happens to the united states uh and its currency of the dollar well the dollar is going to get marked down i mean look look what happened to the dollar in the 1970s the dollar lost 70 percent of its value 80 i mean prices went way up that's why gold went from 35 an ounce to 800 that's why oil went from three dollars a barrel to 30 a barrel i mean the price of everything went up in the 1970s and in fact because money lost so much value that's why so many women started to work if you go back to the 1960s and you look at the typical american family the housewife didn't have a job i don't care what job the husband had butcher baker candlestick maker right fireman policeman teacher his wife didn't have a job that one paycheck was enough had enough buying power to support the entire family right but by the end of the 1970s early 1980s that paycheck had been so diminished by inflation that all of a sudden a guy couldn't support his family anymore his wife had to go get a job that really was the beginning you know people want to say oh it was women's liberation no it wasn't women were liberated when they didn't have to work that's liberation when you're forced to work that's when you lose your liberty you don't have a choice you got to leave your kids at home and you got to go out and work because your husband can't support you anymore and that was a big change you know and and so i think we're going to see another substantive change this time where we wipe out retirement i said earlier no one's going to be retired anymore in america everybody's going to be working because no one has any savings that are going to have any purchasing power yeah kind and what's your upbeat prediction well my upbeat prediction is that maybe this crisis will be a catalyst and this is maybe wishful thinking but maybe a catalyst to cause america to understand finally the root cause of its problems beating government and and central banks and that we can kind of go backwards to the the principles that were enshrined uh in our constitution by our founders and go back to a free market economy with limited government and sound money that would be great uh if we could do that and then we could marry you know 19th century liberty with 21st century technology and then we could have an unprecedented economic boom yeah because if you think of what america accomplished without computers right and all the things that we have now that we didn't have 100 200 years ago just imagine what we can accomplish if we have the same freedom that we had back then with the technology that we have now and in fact had we had the same amount of freedom in the 20th century and out 21st that we had in the 19th we'd have much better technology right now too it's it's hard to know how much better off we'd have been how much wealthier how much higher our living standards would be now had we not gone off on this big government tangent and created this huge welfare state uh and and given so much power to the central bank i mean we it would be a whole different world here i think you know we might actually look like the jetsons by now who knows you
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