저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 비트코인이 실물 가치가 없는 투기 자산이며 금이 진정한 가치 저장 수단이라고 주장하고, 비트코인은 대규모 펌프앤덤프 구조라고 비판한다. 희소성 관련 주장: 비트코인은 새로운 암호화폐를 무한히 만들 수 있어 희소성 논리가 성립하지 않으며, 금은 대체 불가능한 실물 상품이라고 설명한다. 디지털화 관련 주장: 많은 것이 디지털화되었지만 돈까지 디지털로 대체될 수 없다. 금은 물리적 원소로 전기 전도나 시계 소재 등 실물 용도가 있으나 비트코인은 실제 재화가 아니다. 신뢰와 제도 관련 주장: 비트코인은 정부 지원, 보험, 채권시장 등 법정화폐를 떠받치는 인프라가 없어 신뢰 게임에 불과하며, 거래 외에는 실사용이 거의 없다. 반론 및 상대 주장: 스카이브리지의 앤서니 스카라무치는 네트워크 성장(사용자 3천만에서 1억 2,500만 명, 연말 1억 8천만 명 전망)과 디지털 화폐의 불가피성을 강조하고, 금도 가치의 원장(ledger)에 불과하다고 반박한다. 쟁점 정리: 대화는 희소성, 실물성, 네트워크 가치의 정의를 두고 대립한다. 쉬프는 금을, 스카라무치는 비트코인을 옹호한다. 비트코인 가격 관련 발언: 쉬프는 비트코인이 3만~5만 달러에서 100만, 1,000만 달러로 간다는 기대를 조롱하며 기관·초기 투자자가 개인 매수자에게 물량을 떠넘기는 구조라고 주장한다. 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 리스크 및 전망: 쉬프는 큰 충돌(major conflict)이 다가온다는 제목 취지의 거시 경고를 담고 있으나 구체 기간은 명시하지 않았다. 금에 대한 장기 강세 기대는 암묵적으로 깔려 있다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 비트코인 하락(펌프앤덤프 붕괴)을 예상하는 입장이며, 금의 장기 가치 보존을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
the fact that you can always come up with another one destroys the argument that there's scarcity there i mean you're not going to come up with a better goal gold is gold uh but you know i can keep inventing these cryptocurrencies there's no limit to the supply of cryptocurrencies and i don't know that necessarily if you can assign a value to the network if that value in errors to the individual uh you know satoshi's that everybody owns and you know i know that yeah we're going digital a lot of things now are digital but that doesn't mean that everything is digital i don't live in a digital house i don't eat digital food i don't drive a digital car and i'm not going to have digital money because money is a commodity it is a real thing it cannot just be replicated digitally if you want to have a store of value if you want real money then you need something like gold if you believe in fiat money well then you can have fiat cryptocurrencies but the problem is again you're playing a confidence game only without the the government supports and all the other infrastructure the price structures uh you know uh the the insurance products the bond markets all the all the the the things that people use fiat currencies for today they don't use they don't use bitcoin for any of that other than just trading people collect bitcoin let me kick it out back to anthony just so that when we get to the the half hour we can go to the audience because i've got some very good questions thank you very much audience and do keep them coming and i'll try and group them as sensibly uh as i can i think i'm actually speaking to you from the baltic states so i've been speaking to her and talking to people who are obviously very keen on on digital it's interesting the point we don't have a digital car well we don't although i feel like i've got near as dammit a digital car i got a car from from bolt to one of the big car app it's up here i did it all on the app it turned up open sesame the key was there literally the car was physical but nothing else was even so i say to talking to kayak alice the very go-ahead prime minister of estonia on digital yesterday cryptocurrency she said i don't i don't yet see that it would inspire confidence and if you are getting to the point where your argument is quite well advanced it exists in the real world and yet governments are still very cheery very leery of it there might be a problem around that am i right um i had that view that you're sharing with me uh that the prime minister of estonia the president of estonia had uh if you were talking to me in 2017 or 2018 i would have said had this higher level of skepticism uh when i left the white house you know people forget that i was also at the xm bank and i spent several weeks at the xm bank examining the xm bank as chief strategy officer making a recommendation to the administration whether or not we should keep the xm bank and at that time they were talking about the digitization of the dollar and the threat of a digital yuan and when i when i look when i was fired from the white house and went back to my business it's one of the great things about being an entrepreneur after you fired you go back to your own business big deal i bought the url skybridgebitcoin.com because it became very clear that the fiat currencies were going to start digitizing so what i would say the estonian government is i understand your concern but there's been exponential growth in the network the network has moved from 30 million users at that time to 125 million users on its way to 180 by year end and so as more and more users join the network the fair complete of the network will be such that it'll be impossible not to have it as a part of our lives and and what i would say to peter about gold i respect gold and i understand gold's cultural and historical tenants but software is eating the world uh every book behind me right now i can digest that book into this smartphone and then i have room for my photos and and everything else and i think what mr nakamoto or mrs nakamoto the group known as nakamoto suggested is if we've got money and this is where peter and i would intellectually disagree gold is just another representation of value it is a ledger the human beings for 5 500 years are trying to come up with a ledger between each other so that they can exchange goods and services without bordering gold is just another representation of that so all nakamoto is saying is uh this meets the three tenets it's scarce it can be networked and i can transfer it to you in an impregnable way we don't have to like or trust each other but i can create that one-on-one experience without having to go through a third party one last quick point yeah quick one back to peter and then to the audience because we've got some great questions if we capture a meteor very valuable one that's got a quad trillion dollars worth of gold it's going to super disrupt that market bitcoin can't be disrupted it can't be recreated peter very quick quick last comeback there you could volley your serve uh at the net and then we'll go to the audience well first of all gold is not a representation of anything gold is itself it is a metal right it is a commodity and prior to it being money it was bartered for other commodities i mean i could have some gold and you could have some wheat and we could exchange one commodity for another one value for another so when gold became money gold became accepted in exchange for any other commodity but it was a commodity itself bitcoin does not possess that property bitcoin is not an actual good so you know when you talk about digital books or digital music you know these things can be digitized uh this is intangible i can read a book on paper because what i'm reading are the words and so you can transfer those words to me digitally or on a piece of paper the same thing with music i can listen to an album that's playing on you know a phonograph or i could listen to you know an ipod or whatever it's the music which is digital but sir other pro commodities like gold is a physical element it is a metal and it can't be replaced with a digital representation because i can't make this watch out of digital gold i can't conduct electricity with digital gold you have to understand the difference when you are putting your faith in bitcoin there's nothing real in order to pump up the market price of the bitcoin that they had acquired and and so i think they have been selling into the hype and so in my mind it is a giant pump and dump where the guys that got in relatively early maybe not on the ground floor but relatively early are constantly trying to pump up the market in order to generate a lot of enthusiasm and momentum and fomo so that they can sell out uh you know gradually into this market that that they are creating and i think as part of the whole culture of this total uh diamond hands trying to convince as many of the little guys to never sell because if you're the big guy and you're trying to unload your bitcoin you don't want everybody else selling at the same time and screwing it up for you so you want to convince all the new people who are coming in that they can buy bitcoin now at thirty forty thousand fifty thousand bitcoin and it's going to go to a million it's gonna go to ten million you gotta get those guys on board and make sure they never sell so you can keep getting rid of yours and that's what i think is going on behind the scenes you
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