저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스 전략 기반 퀄리티 투자 스크리너를 소개하는 영상으로, 개별 종목에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 전략 개요: 테리 스미스(Fundsmith 창립자)는 연평균 15.6% 수익률을 기록했다고 소개되며, 워런 버핏·벤저민 그레이엄의 가치투자와 유사하지만 저평가보다 기업 품질을 더 중시한다. 핵심 원칙 3가지: 우량 기업만 매수, 과도하게 비싸게 사지 않기, 장기 보유하며 단기 변동 무시. 스크리너 조건: 현금전환율 EBITDA 대비 90% 이상, 잉여현금흐름 성장, 5년 평균 ROCE 15% 이상, 잉여현금흐름 대비 주가 30배 이하, 매출총이익률 55% 이상, 영업이익률 20% 이상, 이자보상배율 10배 이상, 부채/잉여현금흐름 5배 미만, 시가총액 3억 달러 이상. 섹터 제외: 금융, 유틸리티, 에너지, 소재, 부동산. 포함: 산업재, 임의소비재, 필수소비재, 헬스케어, IT, 통신서비스. 결과: 약 22,000개 티커 중 25개, 미국 종목은 12개(구글, 시스코, 가민, 포티넷 등)가 통과. 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Chartmill. In this video, I would like to present a new fundamental investment idea added to Chartmill, based on the strategy of Terry Smith, a respected investor and fund manager from the United Kingdom. He is best known as the CEO of Fundsmith, an investment firm he founded in 2010.
Since then, the fund has achieved a compound annual return of 15.6% after expenses. This results in a total return of 516% since its inception. In comparison, the MSCI World Index achieved a total return of 290% over the same period. Therefore, Fundsmith's performance can be considered quite impressive, knowing that 80 % of actively managed funds underperform the index over a 10-year period.
Terry Smith is clearly among the other 20%. Those who delve a little deeper into Terry Smith's investment strategy quickly realize where he drew his inspiration from. The similarities to Warren Buffett's approach to value investing are significant. Both focus exclusively on highly profitable companies, maximizing their competitive advantage over their industry peers, while still having the opportunity to grow sufficiently.
All of this must be driven by a strong management team. The common denominator is no surprise: Benjamin Graham , the father of value investing. The difference between the two is that the focus on the importance of undervaluation is a much smaller factor for quality investors like Terry Smith. Fundsmith's success is largely due to its impressive performance.
But what undoubtedly also played a role is the way in which investment concepts, often complex, are explained in simple language. Smith managed to summarize his approach in three basic principles aimed purely at creating long-term capital gains. Buy only from quality companies. The criteria are very strict.
Only companies with solid balance sheets, predictable and growing revenues, high return on capital employed, and a structurally strong competitive position are considered. Don't pay too much for these companies. Remember that this is not the same as being cheap . In defending this point, the fund manager is going against the wisdom of the stock market.
Buy low and sell high. Of course, it's still important to ensure you don't overpay for a stock, but you should be willing to pay a fair price. A company's quality and growth potential are far more important than the price you pay for it. This clearly distinguishes Smith from the pure value investor , who primarily seeks stocks trading significantly below their intrinsic value.
Do nothing and be patient. This strategy focuses exclusively on the long term. Companies are acquired with the intention of keeping them in the portfolio for as long as possible. Therefore, short-term price fluctuations should be ignored. This is the only way to fully harness the power of exponential growth.
In addition to these three fundamental concepts, attention is also given to sufficient diversification. The companies invested in operate globally. However, typical cyclical companies, heavily regulated sectors, and companies that rely on borrowing are excluded, and this is reflected in the sectors included in Fundsmith.
Smith further suggests relying primarily on one's own analysis and research, allowing oneself to be influenced as little as possible by all kinds of market trends, news, or bold predictions. Now, let's take a look at the specific settings of Terry Smith's screener in Chartmill to find companies that meet the basic criteria.
Let's start with the cash conversion. At least 90% of EBITDA is converted into cash flow. This index provides insight into the extent to which the company is able to effectively convert profits into cash . The stronger this index, the easier it will be for the company to pay its short-term financial obligations and all debts within a year.
Furthermore, in times of economic hardship, these companies will be more resilient in overcoming the period and will be better positioned to reinvest in growth when the economy recovers. Free cash flow. Over the last 5 years, free cash flow has grown. Quality investors focus on companies with growing profits , and that is precisely why the free cash flow growth ratio is maintained.
Ultimately, when it increases due to higher revenue, reduced costs, etc., this is usually a prelude to higher profits. To avoid making the filter too strict, we don't impose a minimum percentage. We demand only growth. Return on capital employed. An average 5-year return on invested capital of at least 15%.
Return on capital employed is a profitability index that calculates how much profit before interest and taxes a company can generate with the capital it uses. A high ratio is evidence that a company is using capital efficiently. As with many indices, this becomes especially interesting if this key number shows growth over several years.
This is evidence that value is, in fact, being created for investors. That is why , here too, we consider the 5-year average. Price based on free cash flow. The price-to- free cash flow ratio is, at most, 30. Although quality investors aren't necessarily looking for cheap stocks, that doesn't mean they're willing to pay any price.
This indicator tells you exactly how much you pay for each dollar of free cash flow. Highly overvalued stocks should always be avoided. However, one should not only look at a low price-to-free cash flow ratio. A slightly higher rate may be perfectly justifiable in highly profitable companies. This may indicate that investors are willing to pay a premium now because free cash flow is expected to continue growing steadily in the future.
A maximum price-to-free cash flow ratio of 30 corresponds to a free cash flow yield of 3.33%. Although this filter deserves some nuance in this video where Smith details the free cash flow yield, he states that it requires a return of at least 1% above the expected inflation rate . For more details, we would like to refer you to the specific video, starting at 3 minutes and 14 seconds.
A link to the video can be found below. Therefore, in this sense, the filter will have to be adjusted according to current market conditions and inflation rates. The sectors included were industrial, discretionary consumption, consumer staples, healthcare, information technology, and communication services, while the following sectors were excluded: financial services, utilities, energy, materials, and real estate .
Next, gross margin and operating margin. Therefore, for the gross margin, at least 55%. Gross margin says something about profitability and provides insight into how the price is set and how the company keeps its costs under control. It is an ideal benchmark for comparing companies , as revenue is compared after deducting the costs necessary to sell the products.
The higher the margin, the better. An operating margin of at least 20%, and when compared to the gross margin, all variable costs are taken into account in this case, even before interest and taxes. Interest coverage of at least 10 times. Interest coverage represents how many times interest expenses can be paid with operating profit .
The formula is simple. Operating profit divided by interest expenses. It is a measure of how much profit before interest and taxes can fall without a company running into financial difficulties. Acceptable to good is a number between at least three and five. In this case, we require a multiple of 10.
Debt to free cash flow. Therefore, the debt is less than five times the free cash flow . The debt-to- free cash flow ratio is a financial indicator that compares a company's total debt to its free cash flow . It indicates a company's ability to pay its debt using the cash it generates from its operations.
It shows how many years it will take to pay off all outstanding debts with the current free cash flow. And a period of zero to five years is an acceptable and good ratio for quality companies. And finally, a market capitalization filter of at least 300 million to exclude very small companies. A quick look at today's results shows that, in our database of over 22,000 tickers, including ETFs, only 25 companies qualify, indicating that the criteria used are very strict.
And if we further refine the selection to only US stocks, we are left with only 12 companies. But among them are very well-known names, such as Google, Cisco Systems, Garmin, and Fortinet. The filter screen is available as a trading idea and chart. To do this, open the main menu in the left sidebar.
Click on negotiation ideas. On the next page, select only fundamental analysis, quality investment, and only chart analysis. And here you will find a painting by Terry Smith, along with several other quality paintings. Therefore, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them in the comments below.
Don't forget to like this video and subscribe to our channel to be automatically notified about future videos. Thanks for watching. Until next time.
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