저자: Sam · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 레이 달리오의 '세계 질서 변화' 틀을 빌려 미국 달러 기축통화 지위가 약화되고 있다고 주장한다. 근거로 미국 국가부채 40조 달러 이상, 9월 고용 2.9만 명·실업률 4.2%, 달러 신뢰 저하를 든다. 자산 측면에서는 금과 AI 물리 인프라(전력·냉각·전력기기 등) 관련 주식이 대안으로 제시되며, 영상 말미에는 10/28 연준 결정과 S&P500 집중 리스크가 언급된다. 다만 영상 자체가 광고성 뉴스레터 유도 목적이 강하다.
다듬은 글
We have a pressing problem for the next 3 years. Chinese President Xi Jinping has issued a warning, and it sounds very much like the 1930s . We are witnessing the collapse of the monetary order, this is a problem. Not long ago, billionaire Ray Dalio published a video called " Principles for Overcoming a Changing World Order." It was a 43- minute presentation about the imminent collapse of every major economy we know.
About how these development cycles usually occur on a regular basis. Why future times will be radically different from those we've experienced, and how best to prepare for what's to come, based on predicted events that occur once every 100 years. Although now he says that we live in exactly what he was talking about.
For example, we just saw the weakening of the dollar, tensions around the world. The loss of trust in the US is all signs that change is not coming, it is already happening. And the September labor market report, released on October 2 , showed only 29,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. It's a reminder that market optimism and the real economy can move in very different directions.
And the question is no longer whether we are at the center of a changing world order. Maybe that's the case. The question is how deep into this we are and what we are going to do about it before it's too late. So, this is exactly what we need to discuss. What exactly, according to him, will happen and what you can do to practically prepare for the future.
My name is Sam. This is Self Advisors, and whether you like it or not, it will directly affect you, especially if you are caught off guard. Before we get into the details, if you’d like to learn about my research on the opportunities, I’ve prepared a free report, “ Six Best Stocks for Building Physical AI,” updated in October.
Link below. The United States has over $40 trillion in debt. According to . However, has happened, and financial markets continue to grow amid the development of AI, while parts of the real economy decline. In times like these, a balanced portfolio is important, especially one that can withstand costly inflation and potential dollar devaluation.
Many people think I make these videos just for fun, but no, I'm really trying to help you. If you enter your email address in the link below, this report and these six tickers our recommended newsletters with daily market analytics and research on the next page. Self Advisors is my company that publishes curated market newsletters.
You can find our recommendations in the pinned comment below. You can also enter your phone number in the appropriate field if you want to receive market updates via SMS. This is not financial advice, please make your own decisions. So, as I said before, but just to quickly get newbies up to speed if you're new to this channel—it all starts with a dollar.
Over the past 80 years, our money has become the most powerful currency in the world because it is the so-called reserve currency, the main reserve currency. This refers to money that is generally accepted throughout the global economy. And since 1945, the US dollar has held this top spot due to its stability, lack of volatility, and security.
So, when dozens of countries around the world trade goods and services with each other, it helps to use one universal currency with predictable value to conduct these transactions. And you know this, but the point is that you risk getting paid in a currency that is difficult to exchange. So by the time you can convert it back to your local currency, the value may have gone up or down.
That's why we use the dollar now . Of course, the US also benefits from this , as the more countries hold US dollars, the higher the demand for this currency. So the more countries lend the US their money and the more purchasing power we have in the world, the better for us. However, it is now said that the United States is at risk of losing its reserve currency status as other options begin to take away market share, especially through the introduction of tariffs.
As for the reasons for this, Ray Dalio explains that it is part of the process of changing the world order. As he explains, throughout history, the world order has constantly shifted between leading economies and emerging economies. And over time, one economy declines, giving way to something new. For example, until 1945, the reserve currency was not the US dollar, but the British pound, which held the position for 105 years.
After the French Revolution, then there was the Netherlands, then Spain and Portugal, Venetian gold, etc. We must understand that reserve currencies never exist forever. Approximately every 100 years, they change due to a transition period that lasts from 10 to 20 years. It's not that long. As for the reasons for this, Ray Dalio summarizes them into three different stages: rise, peak, and decline.
During the boom, after the emergence of each new reserve currency, there is a period of peace and prosperity, when people place bets and borrow, believing that the system will continue. This is usually accompanied by quality education, critical thinking, character building, and a work ethic that fosters innovation, new technologies, and other resources for continued productivity growth.
That would be the mantra of Silicon Valley. However, to finance this productivity growth, there must be a borrowing system where other countries can convert their currencies into investments to share in this success. And in fact, Ray Dalio even points out that all the most powerful reserve currencies follow exactly the same path to the top.
At its peak, the general consensus is that as people earn more, their time becomes more valuable compared to other countries willing to do the same work for less. In addition, other countries have the ability to take the blueprint for the latest innovations and then reproduce the same at a fraction of the cost, reducing the competitiveness of the leading nation.
Can you think of a country that could, uh , be very good at this? At the same time, as people become wealthier, they tend to work less. Values change with generations. You know , from shirt to shirt in three generations. They continue to borrow at the same rate without contributing, uh, to further innovation.
So while excessive spending and borrowing may be great in the short term, in the long term, he explains, it actually weakens the economy because at some point it becomes unprofitable to maintain it, and the country sinks further into debt, potentially resorting to borrowing from poorer countries that are able to save more.
So the critical moment comes when people lose faith in the reserve currency, refuse to borrow more money, and prefer to sell rather than reinvest their profits, which of course leads to decline. So, it's really a game of trust. Ray Dalio explains that during an economic downturn, if a country cannot service its debts, it is forced to choose between defaulting and printing more money.
And they will always choose to print more money. Of course, that's exactly what our governments do every election cycle. This devalues the currency, which increases inflation. Since the 1990s, the central bank has intervened three times to finance economic collapse. It was in the 2000s: the dot-com bubble, the mortgage crisis, and later the COVID pandemic, which allowed other countries to come out with their own currencies and try to change the existing world order.
Oddly enough, he explains that these events have been recurring since the time of the Roman Empire. And while no two changes are identical, there is a familiar scenario we can look to to understand what will happen in the future. And that, of course, brings us to the present and the question of what to do with your money.
Otherwise you wouldn't be watching this video. And this is where monetary history intersects with physical economics. The dollar's role doesn't disappear overnight, but confidence can run out when investors see persistent deficits, unpredictable policies, and a growing share of government revenues going to interest rather than productive investment.
There is a concept that economists call the Cantillon effect. New money does not reach every household at the same time. They first pass through financial institutions, government spending, and borrowers who have access to capital. This is one reason why a rising stock index can create the illusion of a country's wealth, while many people feel they are falling behind.
Maybe it sounds obvious to you, like, "Where's the stock advice, Sam?" Well, it makes practical sense to think about what retains value when a currency loses purchasing power, without considering any asset as a guaranteed protection. Gold has also historically played a role for investors concerned about currency depreciation, but its price can be volatile and it does not generate cash flow.
The second question is whether the development of AI will be able to provide an adequate return on the capital invested in it. AI is a reality that can change the way businesses work, but a transformative technology does not mean that every investment in its implementation will be profitable. Data centers require land, energy, cooling, construction, network connectivity, specialized equipment, and financing.
This makes the possibilities broader than just software and advanced models. This includes power generation, grid modernization, electrical equipment, cooling systems, industrial automation, advanced manufacturing, and suppliers that provide physical infrastructure. Trade restrictions have shown how a shortage of a mineral, chemical component, or magnet can halt an entire production line.
The return of manufacturing also does not mean that the old factory model simply returns with the same number of workers. Companies can redesign products to use fewer parts, automate repetitive steps, and produce more in a smaller space. There is another point of tension in the background. Banks and other financial institutions hold assets purchased when interest rates were much lower.
You don't have to sell all of these assets at the same time for this to become a problem. If depositors or investors need liquidity, institutions may be forced to sell assets at less favorable prices, which limits lending when businesses need financing. This does not mean that a banking crisis is inevitable, but it is a reminder that risks can combine in unexpected ways.
An investment portfolio should not depend on every institution, market, and policy decision working perfectly at the same time. Historical cycles are not a calendar, and no forecast is a substitute for a plan that meets your personal needs. One upcoming date matters: the Federal Reserve's next scheduled decision is on October 28, next week.
Investors will assess whether inflation risks amid a cooling labor market leave room for policy easing or whether it should remain tight. You don't have to guess the solution to prepare for different scenarios. Ask yourself whether your portfolio can withstand expensive financing, volatile energy prices, and a market that rewards a narrow group of companies while the broader economy weakens.
You can just buy SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500, but most people don't realize that this index is heavily influenced by a relatively small group of large tech and AI companies. Buying a broad index spreads risk across many companies, but also forces you to make a significant bet on the AI investment cycle.
So make this choice consciously, and don't assume that a familiar index automatically eliminates concentration risk. It is not weighed equally. And frankly , there are real risks. Forecasts remain forecasts, timelines shift, and a bear market is about timing, not price. In 2022, it took about 26 months to return to previous peaks.
After 2000, it took 13 years. If you are 68 years old, this difference is very important. If you're 38, maybe this is a gift. So, here's what's changed. The old strategy of buying and holding US stocks is perpetually being tested by higher earnings, dollar doubts and a capital cycle that must now pay off.
The opportunity is real, but it is moving to the physical foundation that underlies the AI boom . That's why I've put together a free report, "The Six Best Stocks for Physically Building AI," updated for October. The link is in the comment below. Enter your email address and the report will be sent straight to your inbox.
You will also get access to our recommended newsletters, as well as daily market analytics and research. Self-Advisors is my financial review mailing company, and you can find our advice in the pinned comment below. This is not financial advice. These are not personalized predictions, so please make your own decisions.
These are Self-Advisors. But if you want to receive market news via SMS, enter your phone number in the appropriate field when downloading the report. So what did I miss here? What would you disagree with? Let us know in the comments below. Download the report from the link below. I've already said it four times.
And if you liked this video, please like it. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already, and share this with those who need to hear it. Thanks for watching. See you in the report or here next time. And comment, let YouTube know it's not AI. I am real. Thank you very much.
Comments 0