Nvidia's Huang Is the Godfather of AI, Says Dan Ives

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적은 'champagne moment'로 다음날 주가 상승 예상. 블랙웰 수요가 공급의 15배, 분기 매출은 기존 20~30억달러에서 70~80억, 최대 100억달러까지 가능. 시가총액 4~4.5조달러 도달 전망. 마이크로소프트·아마존이 데이터센터 매출의 약 50% 차지하는 고객 집중 리스크는 있으나 빅테크 CAPEX와 국가 AI 인프라 수요가 이를 상쇄. 관세·対중 수출규제는 제한적 영향으로 판단. 시간외 하락은 기대치 상승에 따른 일시적 현상으로 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, to discuss the boom and the video earnings, Wedbush managing director and senior equity analyst Dan ISE joins us. Dan, it's great to talk to you again. It's been awhile since we last spoke, but good to have you on right after these and video earnings. You're known to be one of the big bulls in the market.

02. Are you happy with the set of results that were put forward by the company? A few people are picking up on the fact that their estimates for Q4 were perhaps slightly more muted than what some analysts had been hoping for. Yeah, I think it's a champagne moment. I mean, this is a stock I think that's going to be up tomorrow.

03. I think what this just shows you say our revolution is still in the early days and playing out. And that's why the godfather of Agents and Avenue continue to drive this market. And I think this is something tech bulls come away from this feeling more and more, I think emboldened going into a tech rally into year into next year led by NVIDIA.

04. We think 4 trillion on the on the doorstep. Let me just ask you about Blackwell specifically. They point to some of the manufacturing challenges that have slowed the rollout. And again, it seems as though demand is going to massively outpace their ability to provide these chips to the market. So is that not going to pose a bit of a dampener to the stock in the near term because it's also going to eat away at margins?

05. Yeah, well, I think right now demand to supply is 15 to 1 and that's why this is so unprecedented. But if you look at that call, no overheating issues. Everything we've seen from March, actual production and the Rams going even quicker than they expected. But to give numbers straight, originally we think we'd call 2 billion per quarter, maybe 3 billion.

06. This is probably going to be closer to seven, eight, not potentially 10 billion per quarter as at all run rates. With that, basically just shows we're going to be sitting here a year from now, Jensen still wearing the black leather jacket. And I think this is in video that can now start to go toward four, four and a half trillion.

07. And I think one with Apple will break these thresholds. Hmm. What do you make of the fact that it seems to be reliance on just a handful of customers? The main three are Microsoft and Amazon. Actually, Microsoft and Amazon make up about at 50% of the data center revenue. Does that not leave them exposed and perhaps signals that the more broader penetration just isn't happening right now?

08. Yeah, I think it's a little scared because that that really represents thousands of users, you know, in terms of where hautement demand's going. But I think when you choose big tech, that's 500 billion of cap backs. The sovereigns haven't even played yet into this as well as much of the Fortune 1000 in 2000.

09. You're going to have trillions of a cap backs out there led by big tech. But essentially, they're building out cities from the ground up, Dubai, Vegas. That's essentially what they're doing from an eye perspective. And there's only one game in town when it comes to chips. Godfather of Gentlemen video.

10. Hmm. Well, okay, So let me put another question to you, because we have a new president. Well, returning presidents coming back to the White House. He's talked about tariffs. And even under the Biden administration, we've seen the restriction of the exports of certain types of technology to to to, well, jurisdictions around the world on concerns that some of that technology could find itself in the hands of China.

11. How much is this is going to weigh over in video stock, the threat of tariffs and the threat of further ramping up with some of these geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China? I think the reality is it's going to be pretty contained relative to any sort of impact for India Apple. So I think there'll be carve out muscle is going to have a very significant at that table and what this is going to be in negotiation.

12. But when it comes in very I don't see that this spoils the party. There's going to be certain restrictions, but nothing that I view as back breakers. And that's the key. Where we stand today is is there, especially with Trump in office. And that's going to be a huge focus and essentially defining of of the regulatory environment.

13. I mean, this is a tech bull market. It's still right now. 930 10 p.m. and this party goes to 4 a.m.. All right. So there are a few more hours left of this party. The final question I have for you is just about the market reaction here. It's been negative and after hours. And I wonder again if this is a reflection of just how much positivity and optimism is already baked into the stock and the sense that the bar for outperformance has moved a lot higher than it was in the past.

14. Yeah, because remember last quarter, many stocks sold off, signaling the bears who have been they come out of hibernation moods in the stocks going up 100. It's 17% above that level. Right. I believe this will be short lived. Bears go back into hibernation, Mood stock picks all time highs. I believe there's a stock that's green.