저자: BernardoMarcos · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼이 관세로 S&P500 기업 이익이 역성장할 수 있다고 경고했다는 점을 소개. 2분기 이익 증가 전망이 9.3%에서 4.9%로 하락했고, 슈퍼투자자들이 구글·애플 등을 줄이며 현금을 늘림. 발연자는 LVMH를 5년간 시장 초과수익이 어려운 기업으로 보고 장기 비관적 견해를 밝힘. 다만 시장 전체는 과거보다 낙관적이라고 함.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond, the head of the largest bank in the United States, JP Morgan, as we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, expects that companies on the stock exchange will report a contraction in profits this year. There were expectations at the beginning of the year that the profits of listed companies were going to grow, but he mentioned that his expectation was very clear and had changed with the tariffs; the profits of the companies were going to see a contraction and that we were going to see analysts change their expectations very quickly.
What happened? Well, it's only been a couple of weeks since he said that and what he's been saying has come true. SF500 growth expectations have begun to fall in some segments more considerably than in others, such as earnings growth. At the beginning of the year, it was expected that the second quarter would report a 9% growth compared to a year ago due to the profits of the SP500 companies.
9.3% 3% to be exact. Now it collapses to 4.9%. It's not yet the contraction Jamie Diamond was talking about, but it is that very strong slowdown he mentioned was going to start happening in expectations. 4.9% growth is expected versus 9%. This decrease in expectations has been much less pronounced in sales .
Sales growth for SP500 companies is expected to be 4.1%, compared to 4.7%. Now, the super investors have been seeing some cuts for the last two quarters. And well, let's not mention Michael Bury, who practically sold off his entire portfolio to leave only a small position in his portfolio to be almost completely liquid.
That's what we saw in their report on the 13F. But apart from that, the other super-investors, for example, Billman, he has invested very heavily, while cutting some positions, he invested heavily in Amazon, he invested heavily in Uber these last 6 months, but we do see other super-investors like Lilu cutting portfolio positions, as is Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway, cutting portfolio positions, we have also seen some cuts from, for example, Terry Smith.
So, in general, super-investors have indeed begun to make targeted cuts in their portfolios, going from cutting from 0% without adding more capital up to 5%. That's what we've been seeing. Their cash positions have increased by around 5% in the last two quarters, which may sound like little, but we could say that it is something considerable.
Even more so if we see that the companies that have been cutting back, one of them we have already mentioned several times on the channel, which has been a popular cut by super-investors, while I have added more to my portfolio is Google. Google has been cutting back, but along with Google, Apple has been another one that has seen the most cuts , Amazon has been another one, Visa shares have also been cut, and finally Microsoft.
These are some of the companies that have seen the most cuts from super-investors, specific cuts of a certain percentage of portfolios, with Alphabet or Google being the ones that have had the most weight in cuts. So, if we look at the current situation in the stock market, the market is approaching all-time highs with a lot of turbulence, because conflicts in the Middle East began—or rather, they worsened— while expectations for company profits are starting to be affected, as Jamie Diamond, whom I often mention, pointed out.
In my opinion, Jaie Diamond has been very cautious and negative these past few years, much more so than I would be. I am much more optimistic about the market, but on this occasion I wanted to emphasize their words and mention them in the video a couple of weeks ago because they were on the side of what few are mentioning, the impact that the tariffs will have on the consumer in the United States.
He's very clear about it. He has seen this story before, and that's what he mentions. That's why I see it so clearly. Now, in these last videos I've taken on the task of talking about companies that I do n't see being able to outperform the market in the next 5 years , so again, all those expectations and what I mention in this video is my opinion.
I am here to share what I am doing and what I am analyzing, but it is up to each of you to do your own analysis and make your own decisions, as I may be completely wrong. Having said that, I want to mention, let's talk about one more company that I consider, and even mentioned on Twitter, I don't see as many others a strong possibility of it managing to beat the market in the next 5 years.
And the position I want to talk about in this video is one that is in the portfolio of many investors. Many ordinary investors, many of them in Spain, but also many in Latin America, because it is mentioned in many Spanish-speaking channels, many YouTubers have mentioned it, it is talked about a lot on social networks and I am talking about none other than Louis Vuton Moet in Genesise.
And yes, this company, which is so popular among investors, and whose shares have developed incredibly over the last 10 years, but over the last few decades in general, the problem arises. the last 5 years. And the fact is that in the last 5 years we have seen a contraction in multiples, we have seen a slowdown in sales of luxury goods, we have seen that sales have stagnated, but I strongly agree with those who say that we are in a low part of the luxury goods sales cycle, but now this low part of the cycle or this cycle, we don't know how long it may be.
So I agree with that expectation that the low point of the cycle is coming. I also want to mention that if there is a recession, this is one of the companies that could be severely affected. So, if we look at it, it's actually a highly predictable company that in 2008-2009 there was barely a slight contraction in sales, only to see its sales rise considerably in 2010.
But this is partly because this is a company that strengthens itself in bad times thanks to its ability, we could say, but also thanks to its culture of acquiring companies. It is a company with low debt. In reality, if we remove the rental obligations, it is a company that has more cash than debt, which at any time can take advantage of that cash, can borrow a little more in order to make acquisitions.
It has been a little more difficult these last 5 years for this company to make large acquisitions, and with a valuation of $265 billion, acquisitions are a bit more complex , but it is a company that pays a dividend of 2.8%, a dividend of 2.8% at the time of recording this video with the stock at $531.
An attractive divengield, but what about the numbers? What about growth? If we look at the last 5 years and see it in 12-month periods of the sum of 12-month sales, we see that in reality since the fourth quarter of 2022 there was no considerable growth. It did go from 79 to 84, but that's not a 10% growth like they had managed to achieve on average over the last 10 years .
In fact, last year they have seen a contraction in their sales of more than 1%. Over the last 3 years, the last 5 years, it has managed to grow its sales by an, in my opinion, impressive 9.5% on average. But if we look at the cash flow, and we'll also look at the margins now, the cash flow has actually been stagnant for much longer.
The company's cash flow, partly due to infrastructure investments, the opening of new stores, and investment in its own brands, is something we can also see reflected in its margins, which are excellent. It is one of the companies with the strongest margins I have seen in the market, and that is why it is so highly recognized.
But if we look at what has been happening, we could say that in 2021 it went from 67% gross margin and 17% profit margin. Now a 67% gross margin, but 14.8% profit. Operating margins are around 22%, down from 25% or 26%. So we have seen a contraction in margins, from 18% to 14% in profit. The question for me is, where are these margins going to be normalized?
I know, I understand that we may be at the bottom of the cycle, but ultimately the company has to keep investing in order to continue reporting the growth it has, and earnings per share have reflected this. And if we look at earnings per share over the last 12 months, we see that it has fallen since 2023.
Margins have been affected, we've seen that, sales haven't grown, but earnings per share have also been significantly impacted. If we look at it in the quarterly area, we can see that it continues to be impacted. And if we look at it on an annualized basis and look at the last 10 years, well, we've seen impressive growth of over 12% in the last 5 years, and an average of 8% over the last 10 years.
But I'd also like to consider that from 30 to 25, and without share buybacks—because it's a company that doesn't buy back its shares, or does so minimally, with buybacks of around 13% in the last year—it's a company that maintains its profits thanks to its good margins and the positioning of its brands.
It doesn't rely on buybacks, and overall, we see that it's extremely well-managed with very low debt. It's a company that trades at a valuation that we could call very attractive: 18 times earnings of the last 12 months and 17.88 times the earnings expected for 2026, because analysts don't expect a growth rebound for this company.
And if we look at the evaluation, that's what has impacted the company's stock. So, if we look at the last 5 years, we might notice that the multiple contraction has gone from where it was trading at 30-29 times earnings, we could say 24-27 times earnings. Now the 22 times earnings or the 18 times earnings of the last 12 months in the latest reported numbers.
And therein lies the problem: a company that had been growing in an excellent way, which we have seen as growing larger has complicated its growth somewhat, and this may be a temporary trend. My question is, what happens if we see a recession in the next 5 years? What happens to this company's sales and what happens to this company's profits ?
Would that cycle be prolonged? and seeing a multiple expansion could take much longer. So, I understand that it's a favorite company of many, I understand that it's a top company in many people's portfolios, but I look at the cash flow, I look at the earnings per share, I look at the company's profits, I see the slowdown, but it's exactly for this reason, because I can't see the growth of earnings picking up significantly, I would see its growth.
And while the company's profits have grown by an average of 8% over the last 10 years , I would see them growing by an average of less than 8% over the next 5 years , unless, without a recession and without being greatly affected by margins, this company can rebound and the luxury goods sales cycle returns to a period of optimism.
So, investors, for me, this company is growing below that 8% over the next 5 years , I see it with normalized earnings per share growth of 5 to 6% over the next 5 years, and it will also be distributing 2% more than the 2% dividend that it keeps constantly increasing. We can see the dividends and the time it has been distributing them.
Dividends seem to be a return on investment that many people like to receive . Personally, I prefer the appreciation of my actions. In my case, I consider the long-term growth in the value of the shares to be much more important , as it is also the most tax-efficient option because I will not have to pay taxes until I sell that position at a profit.
In the case of dividends, every time you receive it you would have to pay. In this case, I would prefer that the current valuation use that 2.8% dividend yield to buy back shares. That would be 100% what I would prefer. I don't see how this company can increase its margins with the current ancelario issue.
I don't see how this company could demand a significant multiple expansion, but I would see it trading at a P/E ratio of 20, a P/E ratio of 21, a growth, a higher valuation of 15%, 18%. So, in my opinion, this company could easily see a 20% increase in value in the coming months and the next year, and I wouldn't consider it expensive.
For me, it would be something I would consider; their shares are within their intrinsic value, but what worries me is that possible recession, that possible continued market slowdown, that their profits will see a stronger contraction, that they are more affected by tariffs, since we see that the management team, besides being quite calm, has expectations of expansion.
They talk about being able to open new stores. They are talking about investing for future growth. They mention it here: new stores, expansion plans in Europe and the United States . They expect to have significant growth and see some of their brands achieving double-digit sales growth. They also mention that there are several segments such as the sale of leather and luxury items, such as watches and jewelry, as well as fragrances and cosmetics, and that these are showing great growth.
So, it's a very diversified company, it's a very large company, it does report significant growth, it does do things very well, but the question is, why would I, as an investor, expect it to beat the market? The stocks have done absolutely nothing in the last 5 years . We already saw it, the stocks haven't done anything because we've seen that the last 5 years have seen a contraction in their valuation.
It has gone from trading at, yes, 50, but that was in 2020. I'm not going to consider it, but it has gone from trading at 29 times earnings to 22 or 18 times earnings at this same moment. So, investors, it 's very clear to me, Luison, Moet in Genesis, has complicated growth for the future. It's a position in which, as I've mentioned in the last few videos, these are companies that I believe will not be able to beat the market.
Again, this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. This is not a recommendation; it is my personal perspective that I want to share with you. Having said that, I want to mention that I'm making these videos because the market is approaching all-time highs, and it's very easy to talk negatively about companies when the market crashes.
But again, for me, it's important when the market is at its highest to see and identify which companies I don't want in my portfolio during bad times so that when those bad times arrive, my portfolio is prepared. And if I want to increase my cash position, I can do so. I can do it in good times, in a way that protects me, increasing my cash position to take advantage of opportunities, not in bad times, not increasing my cash position when everything is going badly, because that's where I lose capital.
Investors is a time when I try to strengthen my portfolios. As you have seen, I have made modifications to the channel portfolio, all with the purpose of having companies with which I believe I will be able to conquer the market in the next 5 years. And I don't want to be worried if I had Luis Vitton Moet in Genesis, if I had the shares and saw a recession and saw the shares stagnate again for the next 5 years because the growth of this company would be complicated.
Although in the long term, during a recession, this company can take advantage of buying very large, very important brands. It may be best for your long term, but in the short term it would be affected. I don't want to wait for that cycle increase in a company that I don't know how long it might take.
Okay, investors, I'll leave you with this video. See you next time. See you later.
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