저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 미국 주식이 극단적으로 고평가되어 있어 향후 5~10년간 기대수익이 낮고 큰 하락 위험이 있다고 주장한다. 현재 PER 약 31배로 정상 평균 17배 수준으로 회귀하면 대규모 약세장이 올 것이며, AI 등 고평가 성장주는 70% 이상 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 과거 닷컴 버블 때처럼 미국 주식은 10년간 손실을 낼 수 있고 일본은 회복까지 35년이 걸렸다. 대안으로 미국 외 주식(신흥국·유럽·일본 등) 중심 분산, 귀금속 5~10%, 채권 배분을 제시한다. 시장은 현재 추세가 영원히 지속된다고 외삽하는 경향이 있어 위험하다고 경고한다.
다듬은 글
And if you have a big position in US technology stock, I personally advise would be to sell them all. But I'm an investor in SpaceX. Good luck. That sounds pretty extreme. But listen to why a man who spent 60 years in markets thinks US stocks have become this dangerous. And particularly if you have to own stocks, own them outside America.
Don't own US stocks. And he's not making a vague be careful argument here. He's about to get very specific. He thinks the US market is simply too expensive and he wants investors somewhere else. That's a nice simple strategy that you can act on. Why? They're much cheaper. And since the beginning of last year, they have handsomely outperformed the US.
Foreign stocks? Foreign stocks of emerging countries, of European countries, Japan, Canada, Australia, and so on. You can find good broad indices. Um kind of the world ex-US. Okay. Uh or emerging markets. And uh Invest outside of America. Yeah, I'm sure they'll muddle through okay over the next 10 or 20 years.
And I am not confident that the US will do that. You're not confident in which part? That the US I'm not confident that US equities will be intact in 5 years, 10 years. So US A US equity is a US stock. Yes. Why aren't you confident that they'll be intact in 5 or 10 years? Because they're so badly overpriced today.
Back in the tech bubble of 2000, we had a 10-year forecast for US equities of minus 2% a year for 10 years. And they came out with minus three. The period from 2000 to 2010, you simply lost money in the US market. 10 years later, you had less money than you started with. And this is a higher price market, I believe, than 2000.
So you think it's going to be even worse? In Japan, you went 20 years and you lost money. You went 30 years and you still hadn't gotten back. It took 35 years for the Japanese market to recover. So, what are you saying? What I'm saying is it's quite typical to uh get beaten around the head in the stock market when it becomes crazily overpriced as it is today.
And that it's a very good idea to take some respon- responsibility and um and watch your tail. Okay. So, overpriced is one thing. But, how bad does he actually think this could get? Because his a bad year. And what does that mean for the average person? What's going to happen? What's going to happen is the high flyers will probably come down a lot.
The high flyers? The stocks that have gone up the most, AI and the more exciting stocks with the biggest moves historically would be expected to come down the most from these unprecedented levels. A 70% decline would not be unexpected. So, a 70% decline in the in the stock price? Yeah. And you have to remember the tech bubble.
The Nasdaq, which is an index of the growth stocks, came down 82%. It is far from unprecedented to have these major declines. Now, this is the part that makes his argument uncomfortable. Because he's been here before, and the people who actually understood what was happening weren't necessarily the people telling clients what to do.
Ooh, do. Please put your hands up if you consider yourself a full-time stock market expert. 400 hands went up. I had people counting. And I said, "I've got two questions for you. One, if the market, which is currently 31 times earnings, was to go back to a more normal 17 times, would it guarantee a major bear market if it happened anytime in the next 10 years.
A major down market? Yes, if it went from what was then 31 times earnings. Every dollar of earnings sold for 31 times in the market. And the And the more normal average was closer 15, 16, 17. And I use 17. If it went down to 17 anytime in the next 10 years, would it guarantee a major bear market? All 400 of them said, "Yes, it would." If it happened, it would guarantee a major bear market.
And then the second question, of course, was, "And do you think it will happen?" And less than 1% thought it would not happen. 99% plus thought the market would go down, therefore guaranteeing a major bear market. And this was the engine room of all the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys and the JP Morgans, all the great investment firms giving advice in America.
The engine room who work for them, the guys doing the analysis, doing the work, all believed in data that guaranteed a major bear market, which happened. But the people who employed them or represented them from a marketing point of view were on the podium with me saying, "Oh, Jeremy, Jeremy, don't get excited.
We'll muddle through quite nicely." So, let's say you're sitting there thinking, "Fine. I don't want to get wiped out. But where am I actually supposed to put the money?" Here's his answer. What advice do you give for the average person that's looking to invest their salary or their wages? Buy a broad-based index of non-US equities.
Non-US, that's really surprising. For um like 60% of your money. And then 5 or 10% in precious metals. And uh If If it's convenient and sensible, hold Hold a bit of real estate. And the rest I'd put in uh bonds. Okay, so 5 or 10% in things like silver and gold. Yeah. A preference for either silver or gold?
No. Um S&P 500. Now, you said non-US. Non-US. This is so interesting cuz everybody says invest in US stocks. Of course they do. They've been completely dominant for 20 years, completely kicking ass around the rest of the world. And then in the last 12 months, emerging markets is up 65% now. The S&P has done much better than I would have guessed, but it's only 25.
That's a lot less than 65. And I guess the strategy is quite important here as well, which is you're saying to hold these for a long time. Try not to buy and sell. And and try and look at where the cycle has been. And this is really the thinking underneath everything he's said so far. We see what's winning now.
Assume it'll keep winning and then pay more and more for it. And I can tell you, and you can see it for yourself, there has been an enormous cycle in favor of the S&P, in favor of the American market over the rest of the world. What about And do you think America is going to keep on gaining on the rest of the world?
And of course you're going to say yes now because that's that's the flavor of this market. We think that what is good today will continue being good indefinitely, even though history tells you that is absolutely not the case. We live in a world that tends to rotate from one to the other. We believe in a world that extrapolates today's conditions, and you can easily prove that.
The stock market is not efficient. The stock market extrapolates today's conditions. If they are terrible in 1982, they will take crushed earnings and multiply it by seven times earnings. And then in 2000, peak profit margins times, woo, 35 times earnings. They double count in the worst way. When times are good, you multiply it by a lot.
That's another way of saying you extrapolate it into the distant future. You assume it's going to continue. And Keynes, of course, my hero, says, of course, that's extrapolation is the convention you adopt even though you know from personal experience that the world is not that way. And that's really the bet he's asking investors to make.
Don't assume whatever has worked for the last 20 years is automatically going to work for the next 20. Because by the time everyone agrees the bubble was obvious, it's usually already too late. Subscribe for more videos like this.
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