저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 자문사들은 고객을 시장에서 빼내는 조언을 사업상 하지 않는다는 주장. 1999년 이전 400여명 애널리스트 다수는 PER 31배 시장이 하락장을 부를 것이라 인정했으나 기관은 낙관적 발언을 함. 현재 미국 증시는 역사상 가장 큰 버블 중 하나이며 거품 판단은 데이터로 보이니 스스로 판단해 위험 구간에서 빠지라는 메시지. 시기 예측은 불가능하며 'Watch out' 경고는 조기 경보가 되기 쉽다는 점을 강조.
다듬은 글
you will not receive the advice from investment advisers to get your tail out of the market ever. It is not good business for them to do that and they will not ever say it to you. And that's a hell of a claim, but Grantham isn't saying they don't see the danger. He's saying they may have too much to lose by telling you.
So from 1929 onwards the Goldman Sachs's of the world have never said to you get out of the market, it's overpriced, never. So let's stay with that because this is the part people usually miss. If you're paying someone to manage your money, you'd assume their job is to protect you. Grantham says the incentives can point in a very different direction.
So they went through the crash of '29, they went through the crash of the Nifty 50 in '72, the crash of 2000 in the tech bubble, they never ever say it because it's bad business. If you fight a bubble, you lose a lot of business. And because the uncertainty of the timing is so great, the client's patience is shorter than the uncertainty of the market.
So sooner or later you will be advising people to be careful, the market will keep going and going and going like it did in Japan. You're saying that the people that manage money on a global scale, they have no incentive to tell you that the market's about to collapse because if they did, their clients would would withdraw their money and they wouldn't get their fees for managing that money.
So what they do is they they keep telling you things are going to be fine and optimistic, yes, but you have to kind of see through that yourself because they have an incentive structure which isn't aligned with yours necessarily. It may also be the case that those very people who are who understand these economic bubbles and cycles, they themselves are adopting a different strategy with their own money, but that at the same time they're probably going to be telling you that everything's going to be great for a long time.
No. Here's where his argument gets a lot more interesting. He isn't just talking about what Wall Street might do. He's telling us what he watched happen from inside the industry before the last big tech. Each crash. The tech bubble so-called, the run-up to the top. I I got into a lot of debates with the bulls.
I would say it's horribly overpriced and they would What's a bull? Bull is someone who is extremely optimistic about the stock market. Okay. And a bear someone who is pessimistic or careful about the market. There were 1,200 people in the audience and it was the annual bash of the Society of Analysts.
And uh I asked before my turn at the debate, "Please put your hands up if you consider yourself a full-time stock market expert." 400 hands went up. I had people counting. And I said, "I've got two questions for you. One, if the market, which is currently 31 times earnings, was to go back to a more normal 17 times, would it guarantee a major bear market if it happens anytime in the next 10 years?"
A major down market? Yes, if it went from what was then 31 times earnings. Every dollar of earnings sold for 31 times in the market. And the And the more normal average was closer 15, 16, 17. And I use 17. If it went down to 17 anytime in the next 10 years, would it guarantee a major bear market? All 400 of them said, "Yes, it would.
If it happened, it would guarantee a major bear market." And then the second question, of course, was, "And do you think it will happen?" And less than 1% thought it would not happen. 99% plus thought the market would go down. And this is the crazy part. According to Grantham, the analysts weren't confused about the numbers.
They basically agreed on the danger. The problem was what happened when that analysis reached the public. Therefore, guaranteeing a major bear market. And this was the engine room of all the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys and the J.P. Morgans, all the great investment firms giving advice in America.
The engine room who work for them, the guys doing the analysis, doing the work, all believed in data that guaranteed a major bear market, which happened. But the people who employed them or represented them from a marketing point of view were on the podium with me saying, "Oh, Jeremy, Jeremy, don't get excited.
We'll muddle through quite nicely." It was a huge betrayal of trust, if you wanted to put it that way. And then Stephen asks the obvious question. Okay, that was 1999. What about now? Grantham's answer is basically nothing has changed. And do you think that's happening now? Of course. Who are the people representing the great investment firms telling you to watch out?
If you look at the data, you will see over time, it's a series of great waves in evaluation. Like this? Like this. And we're not just in one, but in terms of the US stock market, we're in the biggest one, arguably, that has ever occurred. The noise to be careful and watch out and get out of the market is not deafening.
In fact, you will hear nothing. You never have. You never will. It is simply lousy business for a big firm. I sympathize with them. I sympathize with them because when we did it in '98, '99, we were 2 and 1/4 years early. And we lost half our book of business in 2 and 1/4 years. Because you were honest with the people about what was coming.
Well, through their eyes, we were wrong. We said, "Watch out, the market is overpriced. It will end badly." It went up. Therefore, we were wrong and therefore they shoot us. People think you get shot for underperforming in a bear market, and that is not really the case. In a bear market, everyone freezes.
It's rigor mortis. They wait until the market has bottomed out, then they sit around and start to fire one or two people for having done worse than the others. But in a bull market, they're playing golf with their fellow pension fund officer. And he is making a ton of money, and they are not. They get very excited in a bull market, and they fire you instantly.
And this explains why being early is so brutal. A market can keep going up long after a warning makes sense. That doesn't mean the warning was wrong, it means the crowd hasn't changed its mind yet. But it's time to start acting as if a storm is coming. Yes. And the time horizon on that is hard to forecast.
It could be weeks, months, years. Stock market hinges on career risk. And Keynes was the great champ. He's a famous economist of the 1930s and 40s. And he wrote a famous book called The General Theory. Unlike the idea that the market's efficient, he knew it wasn't. He knew it was a behavioral jungle and that it would be given to bubbles.
And when you say efficient, you mean logical and 1 + 1 = 2. The efficient market idea is that every company, every stock the underlying company uh represents a long stream of future earnings and dividends and that the ones in the distant future are given less value process they call discounting it back to the present and the sum of of all of that stream of earnings into the future is the stock price.
And that, of course, is complete nonsense. What it is is the stock price is psychology. The stock price is what you think the other guy will pay. If the stock is going up, it tends to suck in buyers and that's called momentum. It's moving up, it attracts buyers and every now and then when the economy is favorable and money is obtainable, you tend to get these bubbles.
And they play on themselves. The bigger and better they are, the more people get sucked in. And after everything he said about Wall Street, career risk and the psychology of bubbles, he comes back to one uncomfortable conclusion. You're probably going to have to make the decision yourself. It's a frame of thinking that will help you be more realistic, especially when psychology is prone to take over and make you wildly recklessly optimistic.
And and be more confident in your judgment. Big big companies cannot advise you. It's just suicidal for their business. So you are on your own. Look at the data. A bubble is not hard to see. There is this kind of plane and then there's a Himalayan peak which eventually goes back. And I mean that's exactly what we're seeing.
That's exactly what history looks like. Have the courage to look at that, make your own conclusion, get out of the dangerous most dangerous part and and do it now. Don't wait for help because no help is coming. So the frightening part of Grantham's argument isn't that Wall Street knows exactly when the crash will happen.
It's that nobody has to know. They just have to be too afraid of being early to warn you before it does dot dot subscribe for more niche videos like this.
Comments 0