저자: Chris·Matt·Dom등여러출연자—소속미상 · 외국인
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슈퍼버블 붕괴론 제기 후 시장은 아직 바닥 전이라는 시각이 많음. 지수 조정 패턴을 과거 1929·2001 사례에 빗대 설명하며 3차 하락 가능성 언급. 그레이엄 등 Jeremy Grantham의 슈퍼버블 주장과 기업이익 감소 전망을 소개. 기업 이익 둔화가 3차 하락으로 이어질 수 있다는 논리. 단기 시장은 변동성이 커 트레이딩은 위험하며, 장기 투자자는 DCA(정액 분할매수)로 대응하는 것이 낫다는 의견. 제롬 파월 취임 이후 투자 시 두 차례 경기침체 속에서도 약 46% 수익이라는 기사 인용. 투자자 개인별 목표·기간·위험감내도·꾸준한 납입 여력·투자 가능 시간 5가지 기준 제시. 유튜브·트위터 정보를 맹신하지 말고 직접 검증할 것을 강조. 채권과 주식이 동시에 하락한 전례 없는 상황 언급. '공격(성장주)·방어(지수)' 전략으로 시장 국면에 따라 비중 조절. 현 시점 약 10%(최대 15%) 추가 하락 가능성 언급하나 일부 종목은 이미 조정 완료로 판단. 배당주보다 성장주 선호 의견, 버핏 사례 인용. 팔란티어는 기술력은 충분하나 영업 실행이 우려되지만 무부채·정부 지출 기대로 파산 우려는 낮다고 평가.
다듬은 글
I I Chris I noticed your wife in the background shout out to Chris's wife I'm stealing Chris hi actually why not hello hi hello I'm supposed to say uh volunteer to the Moon I know I stole Chris for the past 25 weeks from you yeah thank you for sharing okay you can have them yeah no no you have to sit in the other room and act like like he knows what he's talking about yeah honey what you said on the podcast was great it's like no it wasn't like yeah I actually watched I used to not because I used to not like understand anything that you guys you still don't understand get out of here put your stupid Talent here why did you sell when Chris called you like a Mafia Boss and he was like sell it all why did you listen she listens to Daddy that's what it is my dad's not here okay get out of here get out bye bye like my finance literacy all came from him I just trust him having those nice eyebrows yep nice well I bought more this week so when it is 7 25 I I couldn't resist oh I bought them I bought them to Chris's Chris is crazy right now for not buying but I'm pretty sure he's gonna buy very soon but we'll see yes well again shout out to his wife a friend of the channel I'm sure the chat is going crazy right now they love him uh they love her being here but yeah uh definitely stole Chris for the past 25 weeks so I appreciate you letting us have Chris now Jeremy Grantham put out an article this week saying we are in the midst of a Super Bubble so let me take a second to explain this and then I want to get your guys's thoughts a Super Bubble is basically economy crashes and then it recovers and then it crashes again and then it really crashes so in 1929 we saw this uh the market went from 500 down to like 430 or down to 300 then went up to 430 then went down to 96.
in 2001 we saw this we were like 5 000 on the NASDAQ went down to like 3000 went back up to 4 000 then we went down to like 2500. now s p was at 478 we went down to 360 went up about what is it 35 36 back to 430. now we're getting back to 390 and the last leg of the super bubble might hit us down much more below 360 and the reason Jeremy Grantham gave for those who don't know he's a Perma bear but he's gotten the a couple of uh macroeconomic events correct throughout the past 30 40 years is declining corporate profits so Dom what you mentioned about Snapchat laying off more employees and tech companies laying off workers that seems to say that if we're gonna have declining corporate profits because of the macroeconomic conditions once the market factors that in there's going to be the third leg down of this Super Bubble which means we get a real real collapse yeah I mean it's really been super volatile right now so uh to Matt's Point earlier I mean if you're not a long-term investor and you're a Trader you're playing a dangerous game and you better be on point with your technical analysis because uh the Market's moving erratically every day and you could other than Pelosi you couldn't have predicted how that that Nvidia play was going to come out um the same thing could be if China decides to invade Taiwan one day or overnight you're not going to be able to recover from the market moving that fast right so my guy Chris man this is the benefit of DCA it's just consistency it's consistency it's knowing but the Don the Super Bubble though like right but why what do you why would you try to time the Super Bubble you could miss that third leg you could gain that third leg and the statistics say that when you hold your stocks throughout the years each year it's those 10 days that the stock market moves the most if you're not in the market then you miss out I would rather be fully invested and just take the take my lumps and each paycheck just keep dollar cost averaging on my companies that I know have a strong balance sheet no debt free cash flow and and uh Tailwinds and founder lead I'm Gonna Roll my Dice and diversify and and and make sure that one of those winners cancels out all my losers and I want to add to that because I saw an interesting article today specifically highlighting um since Jerome Powell has taken office if you invested a thousand dollars or just any sum of money even through these two recessions one being the pandemic and the second being what we're experiencing right now you'd still be up 46 percent so that's an annualized you know 10 a year which is pretty impressive considering the fact that the market has retraced as much as it has in the first half of 2022.
so I think that that just goes to show you that even though there's these Peaks and troughs and it goes back to what you were talking about Dom you have to realize what game you're playing in right and I talk about this a lot on my channel so I'm not trying to you know take over amidst Channel because it's obviously his his culture and what he's doing but I think about five things right and I think a lot of people they might see you know Chris is doing one thing versus Matt doing another and some people might cyber Chris some people might side with me and it's all dependent on five things what's your objective right what's your time Horizon how long are you looking do you need this money today hey do you need this money in 20 years thirdly what's your risk tolerance I've invested in things knowing wholeheartedly that they could go to zero and it wouldn't hurt me because I have a four percent portfolio allocation and that's happened I'm like you know what this is 40 Grand if it disappears [ __ ] I lost 40 Grand but my opportunity was four hundred thousand dollars and that's what I value it at is something that could go up eight nine ten X and I was like you know what I have 40 Grand if I lose it I lose it and at the end of the day it was only you know a certain percentage of the portfolio fourth which I think is also important how much time do you have to dedicate sorry Chris I know you were going to say something but I have two small points to add left and hopefully this is pretty enlightening for some folks take your time Matt Chris you're taking up enough time on the phone I see those eyebrows and I just want them getting wiggling them again oh yeah because when he gets when he gets a little hint if I have something to say he thinks he's a college professor and he can go out like no you can speak Chris is very Chris is very articulate I like it when he speaks I need to take I need to take some other people too I agree so uh the fourth thing how consistently are you contributing because let's just be honest if this is your only thousand dollars and you say unfortunately our handicapped or something like that you need to invest completely differently than somebody like myself who has been fortunate with their education it can add consistently you know time and time again month after month you can take on less risk and get to where you want to be in say 20 30 years versus somebody that doesn't have the capital capability to be able to add a thousand dollars every month like somebody like myself and then Fifth and lastly which I think is the biggest point and I think a lot of people on Twitter get stuck with this and they just assume based off of what people are doing that it's the way to go but how much time do you actually have to dedicate daily to the market and I think that if you recognize that and I've been there where I've tried when I first started in 2013 investing in the market I was like I'm a day trade penny stocks man I'm gonna do it I'm gonna I'm gonna go to the moon and I'm just gonna print and you know screw this nine to five job I'm gonna be out by 2020 by 25 years old and you know hit rocks and it came to the point where [ __ ] I had a meeting to go to and in between that 60 Minute meeting I come back and the stock's down 20 percent so do you actually have the opportunistic time to dedicate three four hours a day to be able to trade or are you just lying to yourself and that if you answer those things honestly with yourself not what you want to do but honestly with what is reality and it can change over time as you mature and you understand and you ebb and flow at the market you will find a way of investing or trading that works way better for you and I think that you need to take all those things into account to truly get yourself set up so sorry I just I don't know what got me off and I'll pass it to Chris here in a second just that it's personal it's called personal finance everybody has a different I have two kids Chris is fairly newly married you know amidst making a company like everybody it has their own agenda priority debt so for anyone to say like oh you shouldn't invest in this and that like shrug that off like know yourself know thyself know what your goals are and and make sure that you're making why and you're doing the homework too and you're not just trusting people on YouTube uh or Twitter or articles on what to invest in so that's just my two cents on it Chris yeah I was just gonna say you know a lot of the YouTube Finance community that there's like this new cottage industry of expose this or you know this person's a grifter and all this other stuff that's starting to kind of make its way around and it feels like there's more people right now calling out Expose and grift and all this other stuff and honestly some of it is warranted right because there are definitely people out there that are giving terrible Financial advice you know not looking at a lot of fundamental things but there's also a lot of great people that are giving good advice but it's a down market so automatically everyone looks super guilty and super wrong like I'm sure that anyone that's been watching us for the last 25 weeks they're probably like these guys are [ __ ] numb skulls like telling me this palantir [ __ ] is amazing and all of a sudden they're selling and [ __ ] buying snowflake sorry I really need to control my cursing I don't want to keep get you demonetized on it I'm sorry man but but essentially you know in a down Market yeah there's going to be a lot of people that have like this confirmation thing like I told you these guys didn't know what they were doing dude everyone is down right now whether you bought bonds which were safe you're down whether you bought stocks right now you're down like this is unprecedented in the history of um investing there hasn't been a time where both bonds and stocks have been down at the same time so I would say be Diversified in the people you watch as well so it's not just okay let me just tune in to Jeremy Financial education and follow everything he does or follow Stefan Graham or follow me Kevin follow amid cookware and just listen to them go out listen and if they're making compelling arguments that you should probably confirm and research yourself a little bit by all means do it and for me I agree with you guys like everyone's investing style should be very personal to what their goals are and also where they are in life like I have something I called like um the sword and shield strategy so basically what I do is my defensive positions are my index positions and my like my attacking positions like sword positions are ones that I know that are super high growth that are super risky and there are times where you you need to shift into nothing but indexes and then shift another time into growth like right now I think we're in a in we've bought I don't want to say we've bought them but we've gotten close to a bottom I do think that there may be another 10 percent that we could further go down even fifteen percent but I think a lot of the stuff has pretty much corrected so now do I like wait until another 10 comes around or no I'm gonna start shifting my money into more growthy things that are higher risk but I do know that the risk reward is much higher also you know so that's the thing that we we should be doing like last year when we were at all-time highs I was starting to shift my positions more into indexes because I know that Hey listen in the index side I'm going to risk a lot less than I am gonna I mean I still took a shellacking don't don't get me wrong everyone took a beating last year if you're telling me hey you made money in the last year dude you are one of the few people that made money like everyone took a beating so I do think that we're at a point where things are starting to turn around and maybe good maybe a time to start looking at the market closely for those companies that you know really your interest the other thing one last thing before I give it back to you guys do not ever forget about growth you always make more money in companies over time that are growing like crazy than companies that are paying you dividends if you look at Buffett one of the things that Buffett says like why doesn't Berkshire authorize a dividend why don't they just you know say that one of the reasons why is because dude if you have the way that someone explained it to me and they said very very like he there was a great explanation because I used to be a very like oh I'm just going to invest in companies that have good dividends and everything else I missed out on so many gains because I was looking for companies that paid dividends dude if you have to bribe your investors to stay and keep buying your company that's not a good sign you typically want to be in companies that are willing to risk Capital into their own business because that that business is going to exponentially grow like imagine right now you had bought in the year 20 I don't know 2005 GE because you're like oh yeah they have a nice juicy four percent dividend go look at where your GE stock is right now you know a lot of these 100 dividend stocks that like a lot of people like try like love like oh my God this is a dividend like company that I love dude over time unless they reinvested everything into that company they haven't nearly grown or outpaced a lot of great growth names and I think growth has taken such a big beating that you're seeing some really good deals on on the market right now so I like I said I do think there's about another 10 percent that that's gonna go but I don't want to try to risk the absolute bottom coming so I now um it was at 7 25 at that point I was like I gotta buy a whole bunch because the price to sales the valuation the news like yeah am I not happy with some of the execution that they have and how they handle their earnings all sure but the technology is sound more than sound and that is harder to create than getting good sales people to go to market I believe they will fix that issue eventually may they fix it in the time that I would prefer probably not but I I mean I'm not I don't worry about palantir going bankrupt I don't worry about them not being a public they have no debt 3.2 I think with all their credit and everything else billion dollars and they have a lot of government spending that's going to be coming their way eventually yeah
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