저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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줄 결론: 줌(ZOOM)은 성장이 둔화된 상황이라 캐시 우드의 장기 강세 전망(2026년 1,200~2,000달러)에 회의적이며, 현 주가 수준에서 매수 근거가 약하다는 판단. 주가 현황: 줌 주가는 약 83달러로 고점 대비 약 14% 하락, 연초 대비 약 47% 하락. ARK 평균 매입단가는 150~200달러대로 추정되며, 캐시 우드는 팬데믹 중 비중을 크게 늘림. 실적: 2분기 매출 약 11억 달러로 전년 대비 8% 성장(전분기 12%에서 둔화), 애널리스트 예상 소폭 하회. EPS 1.05달러로 예상(0.94달러) 상회. 순이익은 3억1,600만 달러에서 4,570만 달러로 급감, 영업마케팅 지출 확대 영향. 가이던스: 3분기 조정 EPS 0.82~0.83달러, 매출 10.95~11억 달러로 사실상 분기 대비 정체. 애널리스트 기대(EPS 0.91달러, 매출 11.5억 달러)에 미달 우려. CFO는 팬데믹 특수가 빠지고 정상화 국면이며 '선형(linear)' 성장이라고 언급. 사업 구조: 엔터프라이즈 고객 약 20만4,000곳으로 3개월간 3% 미만 증가. 엔터프라이즈 매출 비중 54%. 온라인(개인) 사업은 회계연도 기준 7~8% 감소 전망. 구독료 인상·번들 전략(Zoom One), AI 스타트업 인수 발표. 경쟁/리스크: 구글 Meet, MS Teams(번들 할인 공세), 페이스타임 등과 경쟁. 지배적 독점 지위가 없어 지수함수적 성장 근거 부족. 캐시 우드의 2026년 목표(매출 수백억 달러 규모)는 비현실적이라고 평가. 결론: 성장이 선형으로 전환된 만큼 대폭 상승 촉매가 보이지 않음. 기회비용 측면에서 15배 상승을 놓칠 위험이 있다는 점은 인정하나, 본인은 해당 시나리오 확률을 낮게 봄. 줌 관련 특정 매매 권고는 명시적으로 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everybody welcome back to the channel today we're talking about zoom zoom and kathy woods stock which is like her second biggest holding in the ark innovation fund right now uh it's struggling a little bit it's down about 14 at about 83 right now i think ark's average is somewhere at like in the 150s to 200s it's a bit higher because they were buying a bit heavy uh during the pandemic zoom came out with earnings yesterday zoom pairs back annual forecast as revenue growth slows to the single digits now before we get into this one of the reasons that kathy wood is so bullish on zoom is because of their growth rate they were able to put up about a billion dollars of revenue per quarter whereas in 2019 they put 621 million on the whole year so it's just an explosive growth rate obviously the pandemic hyper accelerated their ability to be able to grow that quickly but nonetheless i mean putting up a billion a quarter in in a world in which uh you have google plus you have google t meets and microsoft teams and and you have all these different competitors facetime going down your throat you have built just a successful competitive product that can stand by itself in the marketplace in the enterprise communications place all those different avenues and be successful kathy wood imagined zoom as one of those stocks that can overtake a four trillion dollar market opportunity that is communications per specifically for digital workers and knowledge creators over the next 10 20 years uh and she believes that zoom is simply the best product that is out there well in order for zoom to be the winner that she thinks it can be which is a 12x return a base case of around 1200 by 2026 which is her uh estimate in a bowl case of two thousand dollars right now the stock's at eighty three dollars then it has to grow and zooms revenue growth slowed for it to eight percent from 12 in the year ago quarter a lesser result than analysts had expected which get which got the stock down uh about 14 so zoom shares fell about nine percent in extended trading hours on monday after the video calling software parked uh paired back its full forecast for revenue now earnings they beat one dollars and five cents per share versus 94 cents per share but revenue they had a slight miss 1.1 billion on 1.112 now that necessarily isn't enough to tank a stock 14 what happened is their guidance and when you guide for lower growth that means the company or analyst can expect that you're not going to grow as stronger as you're going to be able to grow zum's revenue in the second fiscal quarter grew eight percent year over year slowing from 12 percent of the fire in the prior quarter the second fiscal quarter ended on july 31st their net income fell to 45.7 million um in the quarter from 316 million in the year ago quarters the company increased spending on sales and marketing so from to go from 316 to 45 it's obviously a big drop now if you're spending on sales and marketing means you want to grow but if you're gonna lose that much net income in order to grow and you're not growing that is the fundamental problem that exists when it comes to zoom the strong us dollar performance in the company's online business and sales that got weighted towards the end of the quarter negatively impacted revenue uh kelly steckleberg zoom's finance chief said in the statement we've implemented initiatives focused on driving new online subscriptions which have shown early promise where we're not enough to overcome the macro dynamics in the quarter basically blaming the stuff that happened in the recession um i pay for a zoom subscription about 15 a month because i use zoom extensively and the way they got me was that i was tired of having like 40 minute zoom calls i needed to have longer than 40 minute zoom calls so because i use zoom a lot so i end up paying for the screen subscription i'm assuming it's harder to find people that have that extra 15 bucks a month just dump into zoom or even in the enterprise communication space given what's going on in the macro economy the company said at the end of the quarter it had about 200 4 000 enterprise customers which is pretty phenomenal um but this is up less than three percent from 198 000 three months earlier so they're only growing enterprise communications which is the massive market opportunity that kathy sees only three percent um and their enterprise communication customers deliver 54 of the total revenue so more than half of your revenue is from the clientele base that's only growing 3 or less than three percent which is not the best for growth uh with respect to guidance zoom called for adjusted fiscal third quarter earnings of 82 cents per share to 83 on revenue of 1.095 to 1.1 billion so there's not going to be any quarter to quarter growth in revenue it's gonna be relatively flat analysts we're looking for 91 cents and 1.15 billion in revenue and if they can't you know project that then that's going to be a little bit rough a quote from the cfo as the majority of our revenue has shifted back to the enterprise and we have moved beyond the pandemic buying patterns we are returning to more normalized enterprise sales cycles with linearity weighted towards the back end of the quarter when they mean linearity that is not the same as exponential growth and this is the thesis or this is the problem i always had with kathy's thesis which is if you say zoom's going to be a 1500 or 1200 stock by 2026 then that means there has to be exponential growth and at the end of the day if the cfo is saying hey it's a linear cycle there's no real catalyst we see to have this monumental growth unless we have another global pandemic and everything shuts down which is probably not going to happen then where do you get these numbers to the point where i think they said zoom is going to put up like 45 billion in revenue by 2026 or 70 billion on the bull case it's like how does that happen where does that come from where like who gives you that much revenue in a world in which there are competitors you know there are other alternatives to zoom not everyone has to you do this you do not have a monopoly on the space even if you have the best product that doesn't mean you're always going to win because microsoft can just bundle in teams with everything else they're selling and then boom they have distribution of their product across the entire world it's difficult it's really difficult to understand kathy's thesis here and with the cfo saying hey this is a linear cycle of growth not an exponential one well that also you know it makes you question the thesis the company expects the online business to be down seven to eight percent of the full fiscal year compared with the forecast for no growth in that part of the business zoom has changed in spending expectations for the second half to prioritize areas with a high roi such as research and development in sales operation uh greg toombs zoom specialist and a former google cloud executive said i think we're a little too nice in how we sell our product from a discounting perspective so i think we have got the ability to be a little bit smart on how we price and discount our products which makes sense given that microsoft you know discounts the crap out of their product to sell it with other stuff so zoom can have a little bit more strategy there in terms of ultimately how they sell their product they also announced a new pricing structure called zoom one and said it agreed to acquire conversationally artificial intelligence software startup slow uh slavi um and that ultimately allows it to have a better sort of subscription model apple has the apple one subscription model where you get apple music apple health apple plus tv all this stuff for like 30 bucks a month which is a pretty decent deal or 20 bucks a month and it makes you question why would you pay 10 a month for just spotify when you're getting you know everything else from something like an apple so overall my thoughts on this uh zoom shares have fallen 47 this year uh kathy would have bought it i think she has like 9 million shares or something like that i do not see the crazy growth potential that zoom has now maybe i'm wrong and in the next couple years zoom does well the question is is it going to do twelve hundred dollars fifteen hundred dollars well which is what kathy has open source this github model of like understanding the way zoom operates i personally don't see that happening and you know because i don't see that happening it's harder for me to come to the conclusion that okay zoom's going to be the next 10 bagger by 2026 because if she's right about this and all of us here that have not invested in zoom don't invest in zoom and it turns out to be a 15x then we made a horrible decision from an opportunity cost if you could have invested in this one thing that is going to 15x in the next four years and you didn't do that it is very unlikely there are other stocks that are going to 15x or the index that's going to 15x in the next four years it's just a question of the probability of that happening and it seems a little bit low given they're not growing exponential anymore so those are my thoughts let me know what you guys think thank you for listening and watching and let me know what you think about zoom
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