💵 Buy NVDA stock market 2019?? 📈📈 Nvidia stock Part 1/2!

요약 보기

결론: 영상은 엔비디아 1편으로, 실적 자료와 컨퍼런스콜을 정리하며 뚜렷한 매수 의견은 내지 않고 '지금은 사고 싶은 한 가지가 없다'는 중립적 입장을 보인다. 실적 개요 2020년 1분기 매출은 22억 달러로 전년 동기 32.1억 달러 대비 감소했고, 게이밍 부문 둔화가 큰 타격이었다고 설명. 긍정적으로 본 요소 Turing(RTX) 플랫폼 초기 출하가 순조롭고 재고 조정이 진행됐으며, GTX 1660 Ti·1660·1650 등 보급형 게이밍 카드가 잘 팔렸다고 언급. 게이밍 노트북 기록적 출시(약 100종, 800달러부터 RTX 2080 노트북까지)와 클라우드 게이밍 서비스 GeForce Now(월간 활성 사용자 약 30만, 대기 100만 명) 확대를 소개. 데이터센터 부문 매출은 6.34억 달러로 전년 대비 10%, 전분기 대비 7% 감소했으나 Amazon·Alibaba 등 하이퍼스케일러가 T4 GPU를 채택한 점을 긍정 요인으로 꼽음. 자동차 부문에서 도요타와 자율주행 개발 협력(Drive AP 2X 등)을 소개하며 2025년 300억 달러 규모 시장 가능성을 언급. 주요 이벤트 Mellanox 인수(주당 125달러, 약 70억 달러)는 연내 완료 예정이며 데이터센터·AI 통합 시너지 기대. 주주환원은 2020년까지 총 33억 달러 규모(자사주 매입 7억 달러 포함)로 계획. 가이던스 2분기 매출 가이던스는 25.5억 달러(±2%)로 제시되었으나 발표자는 이를 기대보다 낮다고 평가. 회사가 연간 가이던스 대신 분기 단위 가이던스로 전환한 점을 우려 요인으로 지적. 리스크 게이밍 CPU 부족으로 노트북 출하 제약 가능성, 데이터센터 수요 약세 지속 가능성, 가이던스 하향에 따른 주가 밸류에이션 부담 우려. 결론 발표자는 현재 엔비디아를 '매수하게 만드는 결정적 요인은 없다'고 평가하며, 다음 편에서 실제 재무 수치를 확인하겠다고 밝힘.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey guys on today's episode of buy or pass we're gonna take a look at various most recent earnings so let's dive in hey guys my name is Jose and or would let's begin so like always guys this is gonna be a two-part episode like I mentioned earlier in the episode today is gonna be an NVIDIA episode so originally for part 1 we're gonna take a look at the information they posted in the investor's website and we're gonna take a look at their conference call transcript I already took the liberty of reading both files I highlighted the important information that I grabbed from them and then hopefully you guys don't have to read this information this these papers over and over and I hope you guys it saves time for you the next episode is gonna be part two which I will post tomorrow and there we're gonna take a look at the actual numbers of Nvidia and see how they're really doing right because here we just get to understand what's going on with the company but in the next episode we get to see how the actual numbers are moving they start off with the first quarter ended there's the first quarter of 2020 first quarter ended a 2.2 billion dollars revenue compared to 3.2 1 billion a year earlier and 2.2 1 billion in the previous quarter alright so we can see this definitely company has taken a huge hit after the big declines in gaming sector we can see almost a 1 billion dollar long lost not lost but less revenue compared to the same time a year ago that was a huge hit for them and it's pretty pretty pretty crazy to see that going on so here we have Nvidia they talk about their upward trajectory where they see return in growth in gaming and they have nearly a hundred new GeForce max-q laptop shipping and then Nvidia RT access gained broad industry support making rate racing and standard for next generation gaming so they're just uh this is I think what got the stock jumping pretty high on when earnings came out here it makes it seem like there's this huge upward trajectory for Nvidia but we'll take a look at the numbers there's not really much gain happening right now and that's what we find out in the trench in the conference call and it's something that uh I think really spiked up and then did that spike down with the prices during earning they continued to mention that application of AI continues to accelerate we have seen that through all the businesses Google AMD and all the other tech Microsoft AI is definitely something they're investing pretty heavy on so there we can see here from the actual suppliers of the products needed to do AI the application for AI continues to accelerate they are exciting on their pending acquisition of Mellanox which will help them drive data center architecture or high performance computing and AI from the cloud to the edge so this is gonna be a big acquisition if it happens and I think later on they mentioned that it's supposed to happen by the end of the year Nvidia intends to return 3.3 billion dollars to shareholders by the end of 2020 including a 700 million in share purchase buyback made during the fourth quarter of 2019 in the first quarter the company returned almost a hundred million dollars in quarterly cash dividends so we can see if they're gonna return three billion dollars including a 700 million that's two point three and about 400 million in shareholder dividend they have about 1.9 billion dollars to actually give back to the shareholders and some other matters before besides dividends so let's continue what we see so here's these are some guidance for the second quarter of 2020 so here for 2020 they expect revenue to be two point five five billion dollars and if we take a look here these are the previous charts though this year was two point two two they expect two point but did expect two point five five the last time we saw numbers like that would be between four to two of 2018 which would be two years ago exactly so I was taking a look at the price at what Nvidia was at two years ago so that would be 2017 right it would be March May of 2017 but during that time that's designating so here we keep going so between May of 2017 it was sitting at about a hundred and forty-one dollars to a hundred between a hundred and thirty to a hundred and six seventy if we're around there same revenue wise but with a lot more earnings than definitely in my opinion we should be at a higher price than where we are now let's continue to see what we can we saw in there they talk about their gross margin expects to be fifty nine point two operating expenses I expect to be nine hundred and eighty-five million seven hundred sixty five million yappin on gap other income expenses are both expected to become approximately twenty seven million then we talk to they talk about some highlights going on from the company the most important highlight they talk about is the announcement reach on Mellanox technology at $125 per share in cash that's a lot of money approximately seven billion dollars once everything is complete the transaction is expected to close by the end of calendar year they also talk about their biggest sector state the data center gaming I'm saying that they detected they introduced a few new action a few new cards and items they introduced the nvidia cuda x AI platform for accelerating data science they announced availability of invidious t4 sensors core GPUs from leading OEMs as well as Amazon's web services partnered with top global system builders to create powerful data centers launch beta access to NVIDIA Quadro virtual teamed up with American College of Radiology to use a video GLaDOS AI toolkit who enabled members across the u.s.

02. to create and use AR for diagnostic radiology in their own facilities that we can see right from the tender standards they asked a few a few big hits but in my opinion none of these are really a crazy hit except these Nvidia t4 sensors availability from leading OEMs as well as Amazon's web service that in my opinion is a big big hit in gaming they introduced a few new graphics cards they introduced the 1660 ti the 1660 and the 1650 which were lower priced gaming cards and they are they they did sell pretty well they announced a record number like mention of gaming laptops and they also announced a real tracing is now integrated in unreal and unity the world's most popular commercial game engine so that's actually pretty good I'm a good way for Nvidia to continue having a lot of the developers develop using and videos cards and they already put ray-tracing on the two biggest platforms for game development and unity and unreal they continue to talk but the only one the other one I want to talk about is automotive they partnered with Toyota's research advanced development to develop train and validate self-driving vehicles right there they're doing machine learning they did unveiled Nvidia drive AP 2x a complete level 2 automated driving solution auto pilot software HDX validation tools so here they're definitely pretty big in the AI sector for automotive that's pretty impressive but I'm pretty sure they can use this AI elsewhere but I'm guessing right now are driving cars is where the money is that they didn't land some edge computing launched um Jetson Nano they announced a free public availability of their SDKs so here they definitely have big stuff but nothing to me that's really screaming out the only thing screaming out to me was the partner with top global systems to create data Science Center and the data centers as well as availability of nvidia ste 410 on sensor cord GPU on Amazon's web service and the automotive from here let's see what else we have and again here which is I just want to show you guys right the difference on how this past quarter will be sitting at 2.2 billion compared to last year same quarter sitting at 3.2 billion this company was making money and then we had that drop-off happening so we're gonna close this and next we're gonna take a look at their conference call and see what they had to say we start off let's see if we can find where we are so here they announced that they are pleased with the initial ramp of touring which is their GTX platform and the reduction of inventory and the channel so the new products did sell good the new product launches this quarter included the geforce 1660 TI 16 60 and 60 50 which brings touring to a high volume pc gaming side for both text up and laptops these GPUs deliver up to 50 percent improvement or over there Pasco based we've got a pretty impressive these cards I've looked at the numbers they are pretty great compared to the previous pakil Pasco cards this year's om have built the record of nearly a hundred G for any gaming laptops before laptops start at $800 all the way up to an amazing RTX 2080 4k laptops the more powerful than even the next-generation console right well we have a lot of game PC gamers here and it's good to know that these clap that laptop is stronger than even the next generation on consoles next let's see where we're at you probably talked about that I know we didn't talk about that so GeForce now is the GeForce they talked about this earlier GeForce now service and the newly announced a line so chief force now is the GeForce gaming PC in the cloud or 1 billion pcs they're not game ready expanding their reach well beyond today's 200 million chief for his gamer so with GeForce gaming now it opens the platform to allow gamers to play the games they own instantly in cloud on any PC anywhere they like so there currently has currently three thousand monthly three hundred thousand monthly active users with 1 million more on the wait list again this is pretty pretty big news for them moving into the cloud gaming section moving to datacenter revenue was 634 million down 10 percent year a year and down 7% quarter quarter but that's pretty good they definitely have a lot of money on data center and they are upgrading stuff so that's not a huge thing to see Amazon and Alibaba joined other hyperscale such as Google vital and Tencent in adopting the t4 in their data center so we saw the t4 GPUs a growing list of consumer Internet companies are also adopting GPUs for influences including LinkedIn Expedia Microsoft PayPal Pinterest snap and Twitter so here we can see how they are getting companies big companies on contracts and the contribution of interference to our data center revenue is now well into the double digit percentage second they expanded their reach in enterprise teaming up with major OEMs to introduce the t4 Enterprise an edge computing service so we can see this company is definitely on the grind right now so see you that's what they what else they do another thing they did is they made significant process in data center in render and rendering and graphics they do talk about I think give me one second so again with Mellanox and video will optimize so here this this it was it is a creative and smart reason for them to get Mellanox but I'm not sure if the price is right and video will optimize data center scale workloads across the entire computing network and storage tag to achieve higher performance greater utilization and lower operating costs for customers and together they can create better AI computer systems for cloud to enterprise to the edge they're looking forward to the acquisition that closed by the end of the year again I like this when the company is ready to buy and they already know what they're gonna do with their assets it's pretty crazy how there are some companies that just by companies and don't really know how to lead the company so here we can see that they know where they're ready to go once they have Mellanox on them they announce the world's top 3d application providers have adopted a video star TX in their product releases including Adobe Autodesk they also saw em Pixar so again this is pretty crazy and here they talk that render images up to four times faster in their products we can see this on videos our TX unit is definitely a killer unit next we talk about to help make the division to make a reality nvidia has created an end-to-end platform where abdominus vehicles from AI computing to simulate to end car computing and toyota is their first major win that validates the strategy and they see this as a 30 billion addressable market by 2025 if they continue to beat in this AI computing infrastructure we know tesla is not gonna give out any of that information they want it all to themselves but NVIDIA is there and it's ready to give out these products for a price so again that I think is a great thing what else do we have so while they anticipate this is actually pretty interesting what they anticipate substantial quarter quarter growth from Courte quarter to outlook is somewhat lower than expectations earlier in the quarter when our outlook to 20 revenue was flat to down slightly from 2019 physical so here they're mentioning right that revenue was it's gonna be a lot lower than they expected and unfortunately because of that I do think this company could end up being cheaper and lower compared to the current stock price the dataset respecting past around the world would likely persist in the second quarter and remain low in gaming the CPU shortage while improving will affect on the initial round of their laptop business but there is a shortest in CPUs which means that less laptops will be sold with the invidious GPO or according to they expect revenue to be 2.5 billion plus or minus 2% and they expect the stronger second half than the first half and they return to practice providing revenue only one quarter at a time so that's pretty scary in my opinion that they are changing that they used to give you four years from o year outlook and now they're only giving you to the next quarter obviously under their part it's a smart thing they don't have to be guessing and what they have to do further on in the future except this quarter coming up let's see what else do we have anything else actually no that's it for today on NVIDIA they do have a lot of cool stuff but at the moment there's not one thing that is driving me crazy to go and buy nvidia we'll take a look at the numbers in the next episode and maybe I'll find something there like I said guys don't forget to subscribe so you guys get updates on the second epital episode that will be posted good night people and see you tomorrow