Why I Bought Google Stock - Bill Ackman

요약 보기

구글(알파벳)은 AI 공포로 주가가 과도하게 할인되었다고 보며, 검색·유튜브 등 독점적 광고 사업과 방대한 데이터, 자원으로 AI 경쟁력이 오히려 마이크로소프트 대비 높거나 대등하다고 주장한다. PER 약 15배는 대형주 중 가장 저렴한 수준이며, 실적 대비 수익률(약 7.5%)이 국채금리(약 4%)보다 매력적이고, 클라우드 등 투자 옵션 가치는 실적에 반영되지 않았다. 무부채·대규모 현금 보유 등 재무도 탄탄하다고 평가한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we were talking about most and this kind of remind me of um alphabet the parent company M sure it's a big position for us It's tricky to know with everything that's happening in in Ai and I'm interviewing s Pai soon it's interesting that you think that there's a mo and it's also interesting to analyze like as a consumer as just a fan of Technology why is Google still around like they've been it's not just search engine is doing it all the basics of the business of search really well but they're doing all these other stuff so what's your analysis of alphabet why are you still positive about it sure so it's a business we've admired as a firm for you know whatever 15 years um but rarely got to a price that we felt we could own it because again the expectations were so high and price really matters and really the sort of AI scare I would call it you know Microsoft comes out with chat GPT uh they do an amazing demonstration people like this most incredible product and Google which had been working on AI even earlier obviously Microsoft Microsoft was behind an AI it was really their chat GPT deal that gave them a kind of a a market presence um and then Google does this fairly disastrous uh demonstration of Bard and the world says oh my God Google's fallen behind an ai ai is the future stock gets crushed Google gets to a price around 15 times earnings uh which for a business of this quality is an extremely extremely low price and our view on Google one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb that's usually a pretty good sign about the mode around the business so you know you open your computer and you open your search and very high percentage of the world starts with a Google you know page in a on line uh you type in your your search you know the Google advertising search YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant uh franchises in the world very difficult to disrupt uh extremely profitable uh the world is moving from from offline advertising to online advertising and that Trend I think continues why because you can actually see what your ads work you know they used to say about advertising you know spend a fortune and you just don't know which 50% of it works but you just sort of spend the money because you know ultimately that's going to bring in the customer and now with online advertising you can see with granularity which dollars I'm spending you know when people click on the search term and end up buying something and I pay you know the it's a very high return on investment for The Advertiser and and they really dominate that business now ai of course is a risk if all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of chat GPT and don't start with the Google search bar that's a risk to the company and so our view based on work we had done and talked to Industry experts is that Google if anything had a a uh by virtue of the the investment they've made the time the energy that people put into it we felt their AI capabilities were if anything potentially greater than uh Microsoft Chat GPT and that the market had overreacted and I because Google you know is a big company uh Global business Regulators uh scrutinized it incredibly carefully they couldn't take some of the same Liberties a startup like open AI did in releasing a product and I think Google took a more cautious approach in releasing an early version of Bard in terms of its capabilities and that let the mark the world to believe that they were behind and we ultimately concluded if any they're tied or ahead and you paying nothing uh for the that potential business and they also have huge advantages by you think of all the data Google has like the search data um all the various app you know applications you know email and otherwise and the kind of the Google Suite of products it's an incredible data set so they have more training data pretty much any company in the world they have incredible Engineers they have enormous Financial Resources uh so that was kind of the BET and um and we still think it's probably the cheapest of the big seven companies in terms of price you're paying for the business relative to its current earnings it also is a business uh that has a lot of potential for efficiency you know sometimes when you have this enormously profitable dominant company you know all of the technology companies in the post March 20 world uh grew enormously in terms of their teams and they probably over hired and so you've seen some you know the Facebooks of the world and now even Google starting to get a little more efficient in terms of their operations so we p a low multiple for their the business um one way to think about the value of the business is the price you pay for the earnings or alternatively what's the yield if you flip over the price over the earnings it gives you kind of the yield of the business so a 15 multiple is about a almost a 7 and a half% yield and that earnings yield is growing over time as the business grows that's a you know compared to uh what you can earn lending your money to the government you know 4% that's a very attractive going in yield and then there's all kinds of what we call optionality in all the various businesses and Investments they've made that are losing money they've got a cloud business that's growing very rapidly but they're investing basically 100% of the profits from that business and growth so you're in that earnings number you're not seeing any earnings from the cloud business and you know they're one of the top Cloud players so very interesting generally well-managed uh company with Incredible assets and resources and dominance U you know and has no debt it's got ton of cash and so pretty good story