저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 열풍 속에서도 원칙을 고수해 밸류에이션과 장기 기업전략 기준으로 투자하며, AI 테마 주식 대부분은 상승해서 샀을 뿐 미래를 모른다고 지적. Microsoft·Meta·Alphabet은 다른 사업이 많아 AI가 무너져도 버틸 것이나, Nvidia는 AI가 허구로 드러나면 80% 이상 폭락할 것으로 봄. 시장 조정이나 경기침체가 오면 P&G·Church & Dwight 같은 방어주가 고평가 하이테크보다 낫다고 언급. 시장 폭락 시기는 모르지만 경기침체는 언젠가 온다고 봄. 시장은 AI 주도의 좁은 상승세이며 사람들이 걱정하는 지금은 오히려 긍정적 신호라는 입장.
다듬은 글
Do you not look at this situation where everyone is talking about AI and thinking well you know I I should be having some of that because I can see that there's a tailwind. Do you or do you you stick to your principles and say I'm only going to look at companies because of they tick the right boxes for valuation long-term corporate strategy and so perhaps clarity of earnings.
Yeah. Oh look the short answer is we stick to our principles. We're not going to go and buy things because it's going up. And I think probably the vast majority of people who own stocks that are in the AI boom own them because they're going up, not because they actually know what the future is with regard to I don't think we know what the future is with regard to it.
And uh it's not true to say we haven't got in the era. I mean we own quite a lot of Microsoft meta and alphabet and all of them are involved in this. The difference between them and say something like Nvidia is if you know this afternoon somebody announces that actually the AI thing is complete spoof and u and the whole thing stops I'm fairly confident that Nvidia will go down sort of 80% or more right whereas our Microsoft and our Meta and our Alphabet have all got other businesses they've got their social media advertising search operating systems code GitHub LinkedIn surface all of those things I'm sure they will have a very bad hair day.
I'm confident of that, but I'm equally confident there are other businesses will will persist and be okay. Well, I was thinking obviously because you have you have some tech, but you also have some sort of more defensive style companies. You know, let's let's say if we do get a market pullback, do you think that you'd fare much better relative to the market?
I'd be surprised if we didn't. Yeah. I mean, and don't don't just think about market pullback. Um, I mean, I'm I'm not predicting anything here, but how about an economic downturn? We haven't had an economic downturn for 17 years. It's quite a long time, isn't it? I guess, you know, the interest rate trend at the moment makes it not very likely, but there's plenty of warning signs out there in terms of what's happening in credit, particularly private credit, what's happening in terms of employment.
Um, so it's not like it's obviously okay at the moment, is it? And um if there were an economic downturn, then yeah, I'm pretty sure that Proctor and Gamble and Church and Dwight and all of those things will fare an awful lot better than than the highly valued high-tech. Uh because one of the things about tech is if you look back in history, it wasn't very cyclical.
I mean, there was a secular growth trend in terms of people's use of technology and and therefore in share prices. It's now such a large part of spend but by companies and I can't see how it can fail to be cyclical. Now I mean there is a lot of talk around red flags in the in the in in the market whether that's an AI bubble could it burst but also these other things you know people worrying about the US banking uh regional banking sector and just you know it keep the the worry list is getting longer and longer what are you feeling slightly concerned as investor because obviously you've seen good good times and bad times.
Yeah. Yeah. Not especially no for a couple of reason. One is we own quite a lot of defensive stuff. So we'll be relatively okay. The second thing is uh in terms of predicting downturns. It's not not what we do for a living. But if I were trying to look at it at the moment, I would say probably the most positive thing I can think of is that people are worried.
[snorts] It it typically you don't get the downturn when everybody's saying, "Oh, I'm really worried about what's happening in terms of employment. I'm really worried you I'm worried about this K-shaped recovery and people at the bottom not having much consumer power and it usually happens when we're all sitting here being fat and happy and cheerful and and thinking nothing can possibly go wrong and it hits you in the back of the head.
So actually I think you know as I say a bull market climbs a wall of worry at the moment there is a wall of worry which probably means that the the bad events are not just about to strike. So obviously yeah markets are keep hitting new record highs. It does. So you've got this one group of people worried, you got this other group of people saying, "Actually, this is brilliant.
We're happy to keep buying." It's it it feels very unusual, but again through through your career, have you seen this before? Yeah. And when you say markets are making new highs, they are, but of course it's a very narrow base. It's it's really AI that's making new highs. The rest of it is not making anything particularly.
Um, and there's that. So yeah, I would say at some point we're going to have, of course, people some, are we going to have a market crash? Yeah. I just don't know when. Are we going to have an economic downturn? For sure. I don't know when with that either. The thing that is probably most positive at the moment is that a lot of people are worried.
We typically don't get the downturn when there's plenty of of public uh hand ringing about things that are going wrong at the moment. And we usually get it when there's only blue skies in sight and everything seems to be going
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