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버크셔해서웨이 2020년 4분기 13F 공시 분석: 이번 분기 기존 종목 5개 전량 매도, 애플 등 일부 축소, 신규 4개 종목(베라이즌·셰브론·마시앤맥레넌·EW스크립스)에 136억 달러 투자가 핵심이라고 정리. 신규 투자는 기밀 처리로 늦게 공개됐고, 이는 '버핏 효과'로 주가가 오르기 전 매수하려는 의도로 설명. 베라이즌은 매출 정체, 들쭉날쭉한 이익, 장기부채 1230억 달러 대비 현금 220억 달러로 재무가 약하다고 평가하면서도 통신업 강세 베팅으로 해석. 셰브론은 과거 10년간 매출 감소, 2011년 270억 달러 이익에서 2020년 50억 달러 손실로 매력이 낮다고 보지만 자신의 역량 밖이라 판단 유보. 결론적으로 13F 추종 매매는 공시 지연 때문에 불리하며, 개인은 잘 이해하는 기업에 직접 투자하는 것이 낫다고 주장. 본 영상은 특정 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 포함하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone so it's time for another round of 13f filings which are the filing from the sec which give us a wonderful insight into the big money managers and their stock portfolios what trades they've been making in the most recent quarter so to start off this round of sec filings 13f filings we're going to start with the biggest of them all which is of course berkshire hathaway's 13f filing and there was quite a lot of changes that happened to berkshire's stock portfolio in the last three months uh he sold out of five small positions completely he reduced positions on six stocks he increased his position on six stocks but the most notable change was a 13.6 billion dollar investment into four brand new businesses so today we're going to break down all of those changes but zoom in particularly on the new investments added to the portfolio i'll provide you some analysis on those businesses and then at the end of the video i'll help you figure out whether you should also be investing in these businesses whether it's a good idea for you to follow warren buffett into these four new companies if you do enjoy today's video the best way that you can show me is by leaving a like on the video and of course hit subscribe if you want to see more content like this in the future but with that said let's jump into the video now before we take a look at some of the new businesses that berkshire hathaway has invested into let's talk about some of the other changes that happened to the portfolio the positions he completely sold out of and the positions he increased and decreased during the period as i mentioned there were five stocks that he completely sold out of that were once positioned in the portfolio but during the fourth quarter of 2020 were no longer positions in his portfolio and those businesses were barrick gold corporation mnt bank corp pnc financial services group pfizer and jp morgan chase now as you can see all of these businesses represented a very very small percentage of the berkshire portfolio prior to being completely removed but for some of these positions such as jp morgan chase these are businesses that were once much larger positions in the portfolio and have been progressively sold down to zero over the course of the last few quarters interestingly enough berkshire hathaway's investment in a gold mining company which many people believed was probably not warren buffett making that investment it was likely one of the other investment pickers or stock pickers in berkshire hathaway that made that investment but now that stock is completely gone out of berkshire's portfolio so that kind of dismisses anyone who believed that warren buffett may have changed his tune or changed his opinion dramatically on holding gold in the portfolio they did hold gold a very very small amount through a gold miner for a brief period of time but that is no longer the case berkshire hathaway also reduced positions of six stocks so they sold down some of those stocks but did not eliminate them completely the first business they reduced was liberty latin america which was reduced by 10 but remains a very very small part of the portfolio just 0.01 they also reduced sun core down from 0.1 percent to 0.09 percent they reduced wells fargo from 1.3 percent down to 0.59 percent their general motors position was reduced by 9 u.s bank corp was reduced by a very very small amount but most notably he continued to reduce his position in apple reducing it from 47 down to 43 representing a six percent change in the number of shares held berkshire hathaway also added to six positions during the period these are six stocks that were not brand new but were increased during the period and most of these were pharmaceutical companies which is really interesting because they completely closed out their position in pfizer which is of course the front runner in distributing and manufacturing a coronavirus vaccine at the moment but he removed that investment completely and added to some of his other pharmaceutical investments including abv merck and co and bristol myers squibs and he also added to three other businesses which were kroger rh common stock and t-mobile again none of these stocks represent significant percentages of the berkshire portfolio so there's nothing particularly interesting to look at when it comes to these particular investments but what is interesting are the four new businesses that berkshire added to the portfolio in the latest quarter one of which is now the sixth largest position in the berkshire portfolio now these four stocks were actually first bought by berkshire hathaway in the third quarter of 2020 but we didn't find out about them until this week because warren buffett was granted special confidential status when investing in these companies what that essentially means is he asked the sec if he could wait on disclosing his new investments so that he could invest more money into them before the public realized and started to follow him into those businesses because what ends up happening is something called the buffett effect which is once people realize or discover that warren buffett is investing in a company people flood into that company its stock price goes up and it no longer makes it a good investment for him which of course if he loves a business and he thinks it's at a great price he wants to invest as much money as possible while the stock is really really low while it is cheap and when the public finds out he's investing in a business he can no longer do that in this case the four businesses that he got special status for were verizon chevron oil marsh and mclennan companies and ew scripps company starting with the smallest and most insignificant investment made by berkshire that was a new company added in the latest quarter let's start with ew scripps company which is an american broadcast television and radio company and it was actually revealed that warren buffett and berkshire was invested in this company in january of 2021.
in january the tv station disclosed that berkshire hathaway had a 24.9 stake in the company and that buffett had agreed to buy 23.1 million shares at 13 each to help ew scripps acquire ion media for 2.65 billion dollars so in this case rather than finding out from warren buffett and berkshire's filing itself we were able to find out because the stake was so large in the company they also had to disclose who are their largest investors and in this case warren buffett and berkshire hathaway have almost 25 of ownership in that company today the investment is worth 365 million dollars which is a substantial amount of money but does represent just 0.14 of berkshire's stock portfolio the second company that warren buffett and berkshire hathaway added to the portfolio in the latest quarter was marsh and mclemon which is a 50 billion dollar insurance company in new york city berkshire has an investment of just under 500 million dollars representing 0.19 of their portfolio taking a quick look at their financials we can see that the business is very very cash flow positive which is something that warren buffett looks for and they distribute a significant amount of their cash flows as dividends and share repurchases which is again something that warren buffett is interested in because he wants businesses that produce a lot of profit produce a lot of cash and then deliver that to shareholders in the form of dividends sharing purchases or in some cases or in a lot of cases i should say businesses that use that cash flow reinvest it and grow those cash flows into more in the future the third business that warren buffett invested into in the latest quarter was chevron oil which is of course a multi-national energy corporation which is involved in the entire process from exploration production refining marketing transportation and power generation for berkshire hathaway this represented a 4.1 billion dollar investment during the quarter making it 1.5 percent of the portfolio and while for me this doesn't really make any sense as we transition or as i see us transitioning away from fossil fuels such as using oil for warren buffett it is very much in line with a lot of the other investments that he's been making recently including an investment in 2020 where he purchased 10 billion dollars worth of natural gas assets including pipelines from dominion energy so clearly buffett sees something in this business and in oil businesses in general that i just don't see as someone who is uninformed about that particular industry because when i look at chevron oil all i see is revenue that's been declining in almost every year of the past decade profits declining from 27 billion in 2011 to a loss of five billion dollars in 2020.
so when i look at this business i don't see something particularly attractive as an investment but it's an area that's well outside my circle of competence my area of understanding so i will reserve judgments about this investment and i'm sure warren buffett knows what he's doing with this particular business but the fourth and final and most significant investment that buffett made in the latest quarter was in verizon which is of course an american telecommunications company it's the second largest in the united states after a t and it's actually one of the largest investments that warren buffett has made in a single business in a very very long time this particular investment was 8.6 billion dollars and now represents 3.2 of berkshire's stock portfolio making it the sixth largest position in the portfolio and again the surface level numbers really don't look that great revenue has been flat for about six years profit is wildly inconsistent and the balance sheet is pretty poor they have 123 billion dollars in long-term debt and just 22 billion dollars in cash so for me it really doesn't represent a business that is benefiting from an expanding industry and from distinct competitive advantages which would be demonstrated in the business consistently growing their revenues and profits as customers from other businesses are kind of sucked into this particular business because it has something so unique and so good that people have to you come to that business and use their products and services so we're not really seeing that with any of their numbers but again it's in an industry that i really haven't looked into deeply so it's not a an industry that i can make any particular judgments about personally but considering this investment in verizon and berkshire's smaller investment in t-mobile clearly they are very bullish on the telecommunications industry from this point going forward but should you be investing in these businesses i'm sure it's something that a lot of people think about whenever they see that buffett is buying a new business wondering whether or not they should be following or cloning warren buffett and buying those businesses too and what i would say is it depends on whether you understand the business right i would never just blindly copy someone even if it is warren buffett i think it's a much better idea to invest in individual businesses that you deeply understand personally so if you understand telecommunications and you also see something great in the future of verizon like warren buffett clearly sees then it could very well make a good investment for you but if you don't understand telecommunications like i do then you really have no business investing in those companies particularly because these 13 filings are delayed and warren buffett may at this very point right now he may be have sold out completely of verizon so it's going to be very tricky for you to match his results by just copying him because you're always going to be lagging behind waiting for the 13 hour filing so it makes much more sense just to invest in businesses that you personally deeply understand and remember warren buffett is a huge investor he's investing hundreds of billions of dollars which means if he wants to invest in a small number of great companies he only has a very select few businesses that are even big enough for him to invest in whereas you and me as much smaller investors we have many more opportunities in smaller businesses that he can't even consider so even though he may be investing in this business if he was a smaller investor there may very well be and i would bet that there are better opportunities to invest in smaller companies that are offering a better rate of return long term but that's all for today's video i hope you guys enjoyed it and got some value out of it and if you did i would very much appreciate it if you could leave a like on the video let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below and of course subscribe if you want to see more content like this in the future but with that said hope you guys have a great day and i'll see you in the next video
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