저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 조정은 비트코인이 나스닥처럼 움직인 탓이며 추세선 지지 중이라 본다. S&P500/금 비율 하락은 1970년대식 인플레 붕괴 우려지만, S&P/유가 비율은 반대로 움직여 모순이라 주장한다. 유가 하락은 감세 효과로 인플레·주식에 긍정적이고 금 대비 S&P 비율이 반전될 것으로 본다. 하이일드 스프레드는 낮은 편이나 상승 중이며 침체 시 급등하는 패턴을 주시. Fed 단기금리 인하와 금리 하락 가능성을 언급. 1분기 이후 첫 마이너스 GDP를 근거로 7월 4일 전 감세 패키지 가능성을 제시, 생산성 주도 회복과 하반기 긍정적 서프라이즈 기대.
다듬은 글
uh Bitcoin did act more as a riskoff asset. I mean I'm sorry a risk on asset in the market's recent correction. It behaved like the uh NASDAQ uh unlike gold. But we believe that it was just uh correcting to this trend line uh because bit the bitcoin price went up so much more than the gold price last year.
Uh so we think uh that this uh trend line will continue to move up if we're right that we're moving back into a risk on environment. We think that uh we're being set up here uh for some uh important surprises to the upside as many strategists and economists worry that we're heading into a recession.
Kathy Wood begins by addressing a prominent view among market bears that we are heading into an inflationary bust much like what the US experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to this perspective, current charts show worrying signs, particularly the S&P 500 relative to gold is breaking down, resembling the historical patterns seen in that inflationary era.
Bears interpret this as a signal of declining confidence in fiat-based equities versus hard assets like gold. Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space and drop your comments and observations in the comment section below.
Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the video. I've mentioned before that there are some bears out there who really believe that we're going into an inflationary bust uh much like we did in the 70s and early 80s. Um, and they feel vindicated because, uh, you can see what's happened now to the S&P price relative to the gold price.
Uh, it's beginning to look like it's breaking down just like it did during the 70s. Um, uh, but there's, uh, there's a little bit of a contradiction here. uh the same bears on this basis have to face this chart which is the S&P relative to oil. Now uh as you can see in the 70s this too collapsed. Uh but it's not doing that right now.
It's actually moving in the opposite direction. uh the uh gold price has uh has been uh I mean I'm sorry the oil price has been going down as the S&P has been flat to up in here. Uh and so we have a contradiction now. We think that the oil price which is coming down is a massive tax cut is going to feed into inflation is going to be very good for the market and that the the the ratio of the S&P to gold will reverse that the gold price will settle down and the S&P price will go up relative to gold again.
Let's see what happens. We have an open mind on this and if we're right uh then we think that the global economy will improve and that metals to gold price in uh uh ratio will reverse uh and maybe it will do so at the same time that uh interest rates are coming down as the Fed cuts short rates. Um, another uh indicator that keeps us honest here is these are credit spreads.
It's the ratio of high yield bonds to the 10-year Treasury yield. And you can see low by historical standards, but starting to spike up a bit. And as you can see, this is what happens during recessions. it does spike, tends to go up before recessions um and then spikes during a recession. So, we'll keep an eye on this one to see if this rolling recession turns into a rolling recovery and and prevents a a big spike.
And then finally, always like to talk about Bitcoin uh to gold. And uh again, gold going uh parabolic did take this ratio down. Um but you'll notice that it did not break the uptrend that is in place and that we think will remain in place. Uh Bitcoin did act more as a riskoff asset. I mean I'm sorry, a risk on asset in the market's recent correction.
It behaved like the uh NASDAQ uh unlike gold. But we believe that it was just uh correcting to this trend line uh because bit the bitcoin price went up so much more than the gold price last year. Uh so we think uh that this uh trend line will continue to move up if we're right that we're moving back into a riskon environment.
Now the gold why did gold act as risk off but Bitcoin not do so? Um uh the I just described one reason Bitcoin was way ahead of the gold price. So that's that is one reason but I think the other reason is um we weren't in a financial collapse. uh we were like like 0809 and and the and the banking system was was or the counterparty risk uh in the bank banking system was not called into question.
Um so we think the flight to safety into gold um was more of a hey let's uh readjust and get this back into some kind of trend line. Uh so with that uh I hope I've conveyed we're really excited uh about uh how the market is beginning to shake off three headwinds interest rates conver uh convergence or or narrowness of the market and uh and valuation.
And uh we think that uh we're being set up here uh for some uh important surprises to the upside as many strategists and economists worry that we're heading into a recession. Uh we'll be talking more and more about the productivitydriven recovery uh that will spell the end of the rolling recession. She then ties this back to current political developments.
The chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee has signaled an interest in using the corporate tax president to justify a new budget and tax package potentially by July 4th, a symbolic target for the current administration. According to Wood, it's because the US economy is showing signs of softness.
The most recent GDP figures revealed the first negative quarter since Q1 2022. If the economic data continues to soften, the political will for stimulus via tax cuts and spending may accelerate, especially in an election year. This is a very important slide. Um it illustrates the LER curve. Uh when you cut taxes, if tax rates are too high, uh then you the revenue actually will increase.
Why is that? uh because companies and individuals stop using tax shelters and uh and stop trying to avoid taxes. I didn't say evade. That's that is illegal. Uh I I I said avoid figure out ways around the tax system. So here you can see the history of the corporate tax rate and that is the black line there and you can see over time uh what has happened.
This goes back to uh the early 1900s when uh we first put in place various income tax rates. Uh, and you can see um there wasn't a good recording of um tax receipts until the late 40s, but you can see how low the tax receipts were in the low 40s. How much uh tax rates have come down over the last 60, 70, 80 years.
and uh and corporate tax taxes tax receipts going to all-time highs. Uh and that's because lower tax rates do tend to stimulate growth and there is less tax avoidance. Uh you can see in the last uh Trump term, the corporate tax rate went from uh something like well I guess the the the um maximum corporate tax rate went from 39% and the average went from 35% to 21%.
Uh and in Congress, many people did not want that to happen because they thought that our our deficit was already out of control and this would make it worse. As you can see, tax receipts are up from uh from the two 2019 from roughly 200 to$500 billion dollar. Uh and of course there was the co uh the co setback there but um so that somewhat distorts it but tax receipts are up since we cut tax rates and we think that the same will prove true with individual tax rates as well especially uh and I know this is politically sensitive but the top uh marginal tax rate if that were to come down a lot of very high netw worth individuals would stop using tax shelters.
Uh it just wouldn't be worth the legal costs and all of the complication. Uh and so I wanted to to show this chart because the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is where tax uh proposals uh start, he mentioned what has happened to the corporate tax rate as uh as a setup for what they are going to propose in this budget.
Now, uh, President Trump a and and this administration generally would love to get, uh, a tax package and a budget put to bed by July 4th. Uh, I think that the Senate is thinking more like August. The House is thinking they can get something through in May. And I think that uh, President Trump and his team are going to work aggressively to get something done uh, by Independence Day.
Lots of symbolism there. Uh and so we'll see what happens. Stay tuned. One of the the reasons we think that the odds of a tax package and a budget uh are increasing by uh July 4th is um we're seeing some weakness in the economy. The GDP numbers came out this week uh and we had the first negative uh quarter since the first quarter of 2022.
Kathy Wood reiterates that she and her team at Arc Invest are increasingly optimistic. Despite widespread fear among economists and strategists about a looming recession, she believes we're actually witnessing the early stages of a productivity-driven recovery. With interest rates potentially heading lower, energy prices falling, credit markets still relatively healthy, and innovation continuing to disrupt legacy sectors, the stage may be set for positive surprises in the second half of the year. Please like and subscribe.
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