저자: Renzo · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏, 피터 시프, 누리엘 루비니 등 유명 인사들의 비트코인 폭락 경고를 나열하며 2018년보다 더 큰 하락을 예고한다. 반면 피터 브랜트는 4년 주기(반감기) 패턴상 2026년 9~10월 바닥 후 2029년 25만 달러까지 간다고 본다. 과거 하락폭이 점차 줄어왔다는 데이터와 470회 이상 '사망 선고' 반복 사례를 근거로 제시하며 결론은 열어둔다. 영상은 구독·좋아요 유도가 섞여 있다.
다듬은 글
I'm Renzo from Crypto Report, and for over 14 years I've been analyzing the markets. Today I'll show you who's warning us, what they're seeing, and why one of them says something that changes everything and isn't what you'd expect.
Let's begin. To understand why there's so much fear today, we have to go back much further than you think. In 2014, Bitcoin was worth about $600 and almost nobody knew what it was. The most respected investor on the planet, Warren Buffett, appeared on American television and dismissed it in a single sentence.
Buffett is not just another fund manager. Starting from an old, bankrupt textile factory, he built over half a century an empire worth more than a trillion dollars, always investing by the same rule: buy businesses that produce real money. That's why, when he speaks, all of Wall Street falls silent and listens.
What he said about Bitcoin was devastating: stay away from it, it's an illusion. He concluded that the idea it has any intrinsic value is simply a joke. He said this in the middle of the disaster, just weeks before Mt. Gox, then the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, collapsed, leaving hundreds of thousands of its customers' bitcoins behind.
For Buffett, that only confirmed what he already thought: $600, a mirage.
Four years later, in January 2018, Bitcoin was no longer a curiosity. It had reached almost $20,000 and the whole world was talking about cryptocurrencies. Buffett came back to the attack, and this time went further. He said that with almost total certainty cryptocurrencies were going to end badly. He added that if he could, he would buy a kind of five-year insurance against all cryptocurrencies, that is, bet that they would fall. But even then, he didn't want to short them with his own money.
His explanation was as harsh as it was simple: in this business there are unscrupulous people taking advantage of others who buy something they don't even understand, just because their neighbor is getting rich.
A few months later, at his company's annual meeting, with Bitcoin below $10,000, he uttered a phrase that became legendary: Bitcoin was probably "rat poison squared." His longtime partner, the late Charlie Munger, put it even more bluntly, saying that dealing with it was pure madness.
And just in case there was any doubt, in 2022 Buffett made clear in his own way that if he were offered all the Bitcoin in the world for $25, he wouldn't want it, because it doesn't produce anything. He would have to sell it to someone else, and that's it.
The greatest investor in history didn't say Bitcoin was risky. He said it was going to end badly, that it was worthless, and he repeated it for more than a decade. During that decade, the market did the opposite. Bitcoin went from $600 to over $126,000 in October 2025.
Anyone who had heeded that advice in 2014 would have missed one of the biggest price increases in history. But Buffett never budged an inch.
Here's the worrying part. In this latest cycle, with Bitcoin falling from that peak, Buffett is no longer alone. He's been joined by some of the most respected voices in finance.
But Buffett spoke of a vague end, without a date and without a number. What comes next is more concrete, because two heavyweights of economics took that warning and put numbers on it, numbers that, if they come true, would be worse than the 2018 crash.
The first is Peter Schiff. He's an economist and fund manager who became famous for warning about the 2008 real estate collapse when almost no one was paying attention. For years he was invited to television to talk about the bubble and for years they laughed at him on air. Then in 2008 everything burst just as he had described, and he went from buffoon to prophet overnight.
Since then he defends gold and distrusts almost everything else. He has said plenty of bad things about Bitcoin. His current thesis is this: if Bitcoin loses the $50,000 level, the fall will accelerate and head toward $20,000. From the $126,000 peak, that's an 84% drop, almost identical to 2018.
In his worst-case scenarios he even mentions $10,000, a 92% fall. He has also repeated for months that 2026 will bring a financial crash more serious than 2008, and that whoever owns Bitcoin will end up much poorer. He directly calls the companies that have filled their balance sheets with Bitcoin, like Michael Saylor's, a pyramid scheme.
It's worth remembering, though, that Schiff has been announcing the end of Bitcoin for over a decade and has been wrong many times.
Why does this matter? Schiff hasn't invented a new fear. He's taking Buffett's old objection to the extreme. If Bitcoin produces nothing and generates no cash flow, then everything, absolutely everything, depends on someone wanting to pay you more tomorrow than you paid today, and nothing else.
The second name is in a league of its own: Nouriel Roubini, known as Doctor Doom, and he has earned the title. In 2006, in a room full of International Monetary Fund economists, he described in detail the crisis that would erupt two years later. They laughed at him. In 2008, nobody was laughing. He's a professor at New York University, and when he publishes something, markets read it.
On February 3, 2026, he published an article with a title that said it all: "The Impending Crypto Apocalypse." He argues that cryptocurrencies aren't even a real asset class, but a pseudo-asset class with nothing solid underneath. He gives a frightening statistic: in a matter of months, the entire crypto market deflated from about $4.3 trillion to about $2.3 trillion. Almost half evaporated.
For Roubini, the only thing in this world with real utility is stablecoins, digital currencies tied to the dollar. The rest is smoke and mirrors. He also dismantles the argument this market likes best, that Bitcoin is "digital gold," a refuge when everything else falls apart. He says the exact opposite: it protects against nothing. It multiplies risk, because when stock markets fall, Bitcoin falls more, not less. He wraps it in academic language but lands on the same point as Buffett: real value, real utility.
Here's something almost no one is telling you, and it explains why some believe this time could really be worse. In 2018, when Bitcoin crashed, the damage stayed almost entirely inside the crypto world. Today it's different. Dozens, perhaps more than 100 listed companies have made Bitcoin part of their treasury, part of the cash they operate with. Some of the most aggressive have gone further, issuing shares, preferred shares, even debt to accumulate more.
That creates a link to Wall Street that didn't exist in 2018, and certainly not on this scale. If the price falls far below what these companies paid, the most leveraged ones may be forced to sell. Those sales push the price down further, which pressures the next ones. A chain reaction that simply couldn't happen in 2018, because that machinery hadn't been built yet.
If this explanation helps you understand the real risk, please give the video a like, subscribe, and tell me in the comments which side you're on. Will the doomsayers be right this time, or are they wrong?
Now put it all together. Buffett says it will end badly. Schiff points to an 84%, even 92%, drop. Roubini speaks of an apocalypse and a worthless pseudo-asset class. These are voices of enormous weight, all pointing toward the same precipice. But there's another name, and it's special. He's the only one who accurately predicted the 2018 crash when nobody saw it coming. If anyone has earned the right to talk about a fall worse than 2018, it's him.
And his message is nothing like the other three. It completely changes how I think we should read all of this.
His name is Peter Brandt. To understand why his voice carries weight, you first have to understand who he is. Brandt is a veteran trader with almost five decades in the markets. He started trading commodities with paper and telephone, long before the internet existed. He's not an armchair theorist. He's one of those who risk their own money reading charts. In 2018 he did something very few have managed: he warned of the Bitcoin crash before it happened, and he was right.
So when Brandt talks about a fall, it's not just noise. He's the person in this whole story with the most standing to compare the 2018 drop with the current one.
And this is what he says. Yes, Bitcoin may still go lower, and we probably haven't seen the bottom yet. But this isn't the end of the world that others make it out to be. It's a cycle.
He explained this in detail in May 2026. Brandt works with a pattern that repeats in Bitcoin every four years, linked to a technical event called the Halving. The Halving cuts in half the number of new bitcoins created. Think of it as a gold mine whose output is suddenly halved.
According to this pattern, which has already repeated three times, Bitcoin tends to peak about a year and a half after each Halving, fall for roughly a year, bottom out, and then rise strongly toward the next one.
His specific forecast: the bottom won't arrive until September or October 2026. In the worst case, Bitcoin could fall to the $50,000 range or even the high $40,000s. After that, he sees it taking off toward $250,000 by the end of 2029.
There's one detail that sets him apart from all the others. Brandt openly says that if the pattern breaks, he'll change his mind. He doesn't accept catastrophe as fixed. He reads the map and corrects it on the fly. That's the exact opposite of someone who has been repeating the same funeral for 15 years.
So think about it for a second. While Buffett, Schiff, and Roubini see an abyss, the only one who was right in 2018 sees a painful valley. A valley, one more step within a cycle that has already happened several times.
So who's right? Here's the fact almost no one is putting on the table, and it reframes the whole story. Look at Bitcoin's major drawdowns side by side:
- 2011: down 93% - 2015: down 86% - 2018: down 84% - 2022: down 77% - The current fall from the October 2025 high: about 50% so far
Listen again, because it matters: 93, 86, 84, 77. Each Bitcoin crash has been shallower than the one before, not deeper. As the asset grows and more serious money comes in, the percentage drops hurt a little less each time.
There's another detail to keep in mind. Each of those falls that looked like the end turned out to be a new floor. After the 2022 crash, when it was considered dead around $15,500, Bitcoin's price rose more than sevenfold to its October 2025 peak. I'm not saying that will happen again. I'm saying it's exactly what happened in the previous cycles, which leaves an uncomfortable question hanging over this whole video.
If that's the historical trend, is this one really going to be suddenly worse than 2018?
There's a second piece of information that sharpens the doubt. Bitcoin has been declared dead more than 470 times since 2010. Some people keep an exact count, and the same names keep showing up. Economist Steve Hanke has signed about 10 of those death warrants. Warren Buffett himself, eight. Jamie Dimon, head of the largest bank in the United States, seven. Every one of them has been wrong so far. Buffett called Bitcoin a mirage when it was worth $600. It later reached $126,000.
But watch out, because the story has a crack. The new machinery we discussed, with companies leveraging Bitcoin on their balance sheets, is exactly the kind of thing that could break the pattern and make this time different. Nobody knows yet, which is why this isn't a promise. It's a coin toss, with history in one hand and a new risk in the other.
So the real question is this: will this be the time the doomsayers finally get it right, or are they simply wrong again?
Here's where things stand. Three enormous voices point to the abyss. The only one who called 2018 says it's a cycle. And every crash in Bitcoin's history has been shallower than the one before. The facts are what they are. Now it's your call.
Brand lo llama un ciclo, otra fase de algo más grande, pero deja sin responder la pregunta realmente importante. Si este colapso es distinto a todos los anteriores, ¿qué lo hace diferente? Hay un dato que casi nadie está mirando, y un solo indicador que te dice si el terreno ya se ha preparado o si todavía queda dolor por delante.
Te lo voy a mostrar en el video que dejo en tu pantalla ahora mismo, así que no lo dudes y haz clic ahora.
Comments 0