저자: RameshDamani · 외국인
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라케시 주준왈라의 탄생 기념을 맞아 그의 인도 강세장 낙관론과 장기 투자 철학을 회고. 인도 시장은 국내 자금 주도의 강세장이며 장기 성장 여지가 크다고 평가. 투자자는 변동성보다 영구적 자본손실을 두려워해야 하며 지금이 인도 투자의 좋은 시점이라고 강조. 구체적 종목·가격 예측은 없음.
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there'll rarely be a different name that will come to mind when you talk about India's biggest bull and we are remembering India's biggest bull um or what would have been yet another grand birthday for Mr raakesh junjun Wala with somebody who is arguably one of his closest friends and Associates Mr Ramesh tamani the great Mr Ramesh tamani Mr tamani great having you in our Studios on this momentous occasion of sorts because Indian markets are enjoying a bull market which you love to see and which you would have dearly loved to see you know NJ of course you're right thank you first for inviting me to your beautiful Swanky Studios I really enjoyed my tour here and you're right uh we're celebrating his birth anniversary I think it' be 64 uh on July 5th which was his birthday uh you know he's been called various names NJ he's been called the big bull as you called him you've been called Baya he's been called Rocky he's been called a rock star but I think we I'm going to add one more name to him called Nostradamus because he had predicted what we are seeing today even 5 years back that India would have the mother of all bu markets that more importantly it would be led not by uh foreign money but by Indian public money and he always used to say that he sees India taking taking its place in the league of important Nations Japan America China in the same way and I think no one saw the India of today as is evolving clearer than Rakesh janala so there's also a debt of Legacy that we owe him uh for his very brilliant cause and of course there's enormous missing him not when we go to a budget party or go to a Diwali party or go to any social Gathering his presence is deeply missed yeah I I I remember some of these things Ramesh when you told me uh sometime back as well sorry the the affinity for Mr Ramesh dman makes me call him rames the respect for him calls me makes me call him Mr dman so I'll interpers between the is fine just the respect that I have for you but yeah uh and I I I believe all of us had that respect for him as well for his uncanny ability to make calls you've been brilliant on that as well and I'd love to end this piece with some of your thoughts which kind of emanate between a thought process that maybe the two of you might have formed together also who knows but um you know one of the most Vivid memories of the first um show first conversations that we did after his unfortunate demise was you telling me that that uh he fashion mud into jars wherein other people fashion mud into bowls now I would love to understand this in some more detail in the current context I mean what would you think you would do currently what would you think he would have done when the India opportunity is expanded the way it has right now i' would love to understand how you think he would have thought about the opportunity that has come right now because it's not just domestic money that is shaping the gains uh but it's also domestic companies red psus which are Marching ahead while it's not necessarily everything else which is doing so well well you know uh NJ we've had time to now reflect on his career and His Brilliant career is I think his long-term compounding rate from what I calculated was in dollar terms above 40% and we really you know pillar War Buffet for doing it at you know 24% long term so he was heads and shoulder above everybody in his class so we'll Grant him that but I think the two things that stand out about Rakesh baa is the first that he had this unique belief in India and I think that shaped a 30-year career that he had in the stock market that he always had only one month always be bullish in India never be not bullish in India so no matter where the market fell Market you know when sideways he always remained consistently bullish and he was never afraid to express that by backing Indian promoters backing Indian companies I think one of the qualities that I have found over the last 30 years that what makes between an average investor a great investor is a great investor willing to take the risk is willing to put money on the table and Rakesh was such a fast study if he liked a company in 30 minutes he' close a deal for 100 crores or 50 crores he had already studied a lot of business models of business company so when a promoter bought it to him it was not new and because of now his reputation they were all you know very uh cognizant of what he liked the return on Capital good corporate governance free cash flow those kind of things but what astonished me always in the 30 years plus that I've known him is that he's always ready to put money on the table he's never afraid of a loss and he realized that to make money you need to spend the money and make it rise so he was not trying to be cute not trying to protect himself not trying to hedge himself away not trying to get away from his commitment he always said very correctly that his word was his bond and the ability to be bullish over a 30 year period in India and we've been through very tough Cycles in the last 30 years it's not that we didn't go through Cargill or haven't had a gold exported or haven't had but he always felt that progress would have it would come incrementally but it would be in favor the ark would lean towards progress in India and he was absolutely right about that he was absolutely right about putting money on the table and betting on unknown promoters because some of them created absolutely extraordinary companies and if there was as you say a bull market for told he for told it and even in the depths of uh when he was in the hospital when we visited him uh in the last few years of his life even when he could barely speak to me he would whisper and tell me Ramesh don't be bearish on India he would always admonish me not to be bearish on India so extraordinary Legacy and I'm really happy that we are celebrating such a happy occasion of his birthday yeah he I I I remember one of the interviews I mean I didn't do I didn't have the fortune of doing too many interviews with him but four or five maybe but in one of them he had said that I see a picture of India that is vastly different from how maybe others see it and this was way back um you you think this is how he thought of India coming out I mean third largest economy uh third largest stock market or fourth largest stock market but on route to becoming arguably the largest or the second largest in the world is this something that he would have foreseen way back because 2015 India was materially different from India in 2024 it's hard to believe that but he did see it he had a premonition and even in the last few years of his life he would maybe had a premonition you would tell me rames I may not live to see it but what I'm telling you is going to happen to India you will not believe what's happening today's fairly common knowledge and common belief to talk about India being from a third world country to the third largest country to India to be the largest growth economy among all major economies is fairly common domestic investors such an important part of the industry flow now is very common but this man had the courage and the vision not only to see it but also to act on it so the fact that he emerged the other side and despite two years his portfolio being basically static it has outperformed the market or I think pretty substantially which shows the kind of businesses that he bought and the businesses that he held on to and the wide variety starting from Titan which is obviously a gold jackpot to use those words or this new startup called AAS Airline which is now making a serious dent in Indian Aviation been an extraordinary stock picker extraordinary understanding of markets and I I just feel and I just say that on a personal note that the price he paid for Success was his health and unfortunately uh he didn't live to see the full unfolding of the glory of his portfolio of the country of the new house that he built up so I do feel sad about that but in terms of legacy of learning living understanding I don't think they can be a better teacher yeah um in I'm sure that's not the derivation but you spend a lot of time with your with your uh next of K and your grand and your grandkids and I remember you telling me that Rakesh junun always used to say that you know one thing that I haven't done is spent enough time with my kids because his kids were very young so you kind of doing that um um one more question the the one telling other thing was that you always told me that back up the truck and buy was something that you learned from him uh now uh he used to do that very well you you reckon that in a market as diverse as is it is right now you are currently doing the same uh rames that backing up the truck and buy because the opportunity size is so large you've told me in the past that uh your famous line that why you regret not being a billionaire but are you changing some of those things now based on his learnings from him or otherwise well first to come back to my grandchildren you know as I've often told you I really enjoy my time with v and ARA and unfortunately he didn't get that that much quality time that he would hoped to not see his kids grow up that is also a real privilege in life you know I've learned a lot from rakes B and from a lot of other mentors in the stock market and one of the things was of course backing of the truck and buying it and while I'm getting incrementally better have I been able to be a good pupil to his teachings I probably haven't I probably have fallen short you would have been happy but you wouldn't have been Overjoyed because you know I've still come from a background where you know you're you're plagued with doubt whether this will work or not work whether there'll be a party or there won't be a party whether the Market is sustained or not sustained but rakes never booked any doubts he was so clear in his thinking so clear in his thought when he put money on the table he had complete confidence in the promoter in the company in the business you know well I am plagued a little bit self-doubt so while I think if I give myself marks have I gotten better yes am at the level I should be no okay and you know I have one final question and I'll ask you to maybe elicit one more famous memory or one more favorite memory because we've asked this to you so many times you've spoken about this on various occasions a number of memories but if I were to ask you because it's a we are celebrating a happy day uh of of Rakesh junjala if you had to share one happy memory um maybe maybe you've said it in the past as well it doesn't matter but one happy memory well I'll tell you two point in me one point in memories and one happy memory because I think people don't know that but U when Baya passed away we had a prayer ceremony at the Bombay Stock Exchange and after that a lot of his friends you know 15 20 30 were his closest friends wanted some way to celebrate at his life and remember him not in morning but in happiness so a lot of us went down to a pub which was his favorite called jeffre in Marine Drive and we drank a pint there or two in his honor and we all cheered because that's the way he would want it that's the way he cheered everyone else and that's the way he would want it so he felt almost like a a duty to do that uh after the prayer ceremony and remember him the way that he wished to be remembered so that is the poal memory I think the happiest I see him was of course when uh the his children were born he is gifted with three children I think when they were born he through of course these loud lavish parties that uh he was famous for invited pretty much who's who of the town to those parties and he just uh you know was just so happy one more memory was very happy was his 50th birthday which he took us all to macius and we started a trend of you know celebrating the big milestone birthdays 50 607 but in those occasions I've seen a rare softer s side for him a man who's not only focused on markets but focused on his friends focus on his family focus on enjoyment so it was nice that uh you know the story of his life is history of the Indian stock market and I'm glad I was a witness to that story yeah and and and if there is a lasting impression um to your mind that his uh I mean he he he was unequivocally to my mind the voice of the Indian stock market times very troubled he would come in he would say things people would certainly start viewing some tough moments also differently but to your mind the lasting Legacy of a of of a Rakesh junjun Wala on Indian markets is it stay bullish on India always don't bet against India is it something else what do you think it clearly is that I think if you you know the ability to take risks of course is there the ability to think independently is of course there but I think if you take a dominant stream of what carried him through and allowed him to keep placing the blood SE did I mean remember when he came in the 80s in India n the income tax rate was 90% plus there was well tax in India India was a closed economy but he kind of foresaw that the tax rates would go down that the trading systems would become efficient that tariffs would fall down that India would integrated to the global economy after the Berlin Wall he was pretty sure about it and he beted accordingly so this idea stemmed from that basic belief in a said I remain bullish in India everything that will happen will be good in India and that was true respect of the governments that was in par it was not that he was we to a particular government he knew that every government in a democratically elected country would have to bring progress and growth and GDP growth for the public and so only good things would happen so it was this belief I think that was transmitted to me after many years it takes very hard to be that optimistic and that that much of a soldier in the belief that he were it took me a long time hanging around persons like him that made me realize the kernel of truth that he's expressing that a country with 140 CR people that kind of size I mean the size of India is so enormous that we just coming to Grapple with it we can open a few million demad accounts every day we just have that size out there he kind of understood that before so I would say that his lasting contribution other than the great piic he made and the great parties he threw was also that he taught us remain bullish in this country remain invested and you know try and uh you know have independence of thought in what you approach the market and which I also practice I mean we used to have a lot of discussions on my stocks was the his stocks or my Outlook was his Outlook but that was all of the fun and game got it I have one final question before we wrap up this conversation maybe it's a slightly difficult one but I'm asking you if you had to think I mean if there is one thing that you think about India for the next 5 10 15 20 25 years uh by putting yourself in his shoes or thinking the way you think yes but also some um some inspiration from him if I can use that term what would that one thing be it could be about India's growth it could be about the markets it could be about anything else but something about India as you see it for the next 25 years inspired from Rakesh junjun Wala well I think what uh he taught us was that we need to always remain invested okay and while markets are cyclical they'll go up and down and the periods in which you can you know buy and sell but broadly you want to remain invested in the market so I think uh and not only him the other great of the stock market i' I've asked them this question multiple ways and the ways is okay you've been in the market four decades which is the best decade that you've seen was it the liberalization happened was it in the tech boom or was it now the answer question and both of them would answer or all of them would answer with the same breath that the next decade is the best so I come back with that phrase that you know the best time to invest in India was of course in 1991 when manm Singh stepped up and give the famous liberalization budget of for the interim government that changed the trajectory of our country and now it's absolutely clear as you look back 30 years that that's what the trigger point was the next best time to invest in India and I'm sure Rakesh would agree with me on this is today because you can't win this game if you don't play this game unless you invest you're not going to profit from it so I would suggest what he would say is that be bullish on this country this country is a unique opportunity to become the third of the second largest economy over the next 20 30 years and you need to participate in that economy in full measure and whether he says it or whether I now repeated him as a parot I also tend to believe that while occasionally we move for cash you move from one stock to the other stock we enduring remain bullish that only good will happen in this country I think that's the lesson I've learned from him and that's the lesson I'd like to pass on to the next Generation that uh you need to remain invested you you to win this game you got to play this game you know if you're going going to be scared of volatility which is the nature of the Beast it will happen every day I mean right now the Market's going up on June 4th it was going down volatility is the nature of the Beast so don't be scared of volatility in the market be scared of permanent loss of capital and I think luckily we on a good Wicket that we won the ovarian Lottery by being Indians as Warren Buffett might say but luckily I think we're in the right place at the right time so my advice to everyone is you know this is as good time to invest you know I've been asked this question so many times at 40,000 the index 50,000 index 6,000 index isn't too high to invest isn't the market gone up too much if I got a few dollars for that every time I'd be a billionaire I would come up through my limitations n but having said that you could look at the index at six figures and say oh my God is is too high now so you know that's a mugs game I don't want to play that I want to remain bullish I want to remain invested advice you got from ba advice I also believe in yeah and that you're passing on to me I would I would love to be thought of as the the Next Generation from your perspective because I just learned so much from you every time I hear you elsewhere or get a chance to talk to you a bit of how ashoke might see you Ashok is Ramesh danman's son is how I see you Ramesh dman thank you so much for joining us on such a momentous occasion and sharing some of those thoughts you're too kind to me but thank you so much and uh we all uh you know salute B on his birthday I think it's it's a good occasion to remember him and you know end with a quotation which I like to say about him it goes that a teacher affects eternity because you never know where his influence stops I think Bay affected by his teachings a generation of stock market people and they will carry his ideas on because he had you know you know that he had in number of turtles people who he mentored people who he paid and I've been N I must tell you this before we end I've been to inur 40th birthdays and 50th birthdays and to a person when I've been there they've always said and thank you raak Baya for helping me in my career without you I couldn't have done it you know so he had that kind of influence and that broad influence so like a great teacher he will hopefully affect eternity also most certainly we may not have a pint but we have a glass so let's raise a toast to the great Rocky on his 64th absolutely Nostradamus Nostradamus okay let's nickname in for the next time thank you so much for joining in and speaking about it today Rish danani my pleasure n right and viewers thanks for tuning in
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