저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
다음 주 실적 발표(엔비디아 5/22 장후)를 앞두고 변동성이 클 것으로 본다. 상위 8개 종목이 시장의 약 44%, 마이크로소프트·엔비디아·메타·구글이 약 25%를 차지하며 AI 관련주가 동조 움직임을 보이는 집중 리스크를 지적. 엔비디아는 한 달 새 크게 등락해 불안하다고 밝힘. 신규 매수는 엔비디아 500달러 이상에서는 하지 않겠다며 FCF 수익률 약 5% 이상일 때 매수하는 기준을 제시. 구글과 메타는 과거 매수했다고 언급. 마이크로소프트 AMD 칩 도입 등 AI 공급망 얘기도 함. 매도 후 재진입은 통계적으로 불리하다고 설명하면서도 본인은 불안하다고 말함.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys Tred Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and for those who don't know we are in for a possibly very very volatile week it may be very bad or maybe very good it's going to be one of those I don't think that we're going to stay still because there's a huge event happening and probably 25% of the market is about to make a huge shift so we're going to talk about it real quick very quick all right so I know you're like what is he talking about why that's all specific and dramatic you better be correct about this or be mad I will be trust me this is this is I'm scared for my Holdings I don't know what's going to happen um so the cues we are up 11.26% for the year okay um I just want to show a couple things before we show you this so this is the problem we've I'm we've you know hammered multiple times obviously the Russell 2000 small caps has like barely moved you have the entire Market moving a lot it's really because of about eight stocks which are about 44% of the market this top 10 here and then on top of that you have Nvidia rocking at 6.37% of the market okay so what are you talking about Dylan what's the problem here's the last earnings day okay the last earnings day for NVIDIA they jumped $120 something dollar about a 16.46% change now Nvidia is not a market mover as of two years ago it is now okay now if anyone has looked at charts recently you will see that there are multiple stocks that are moving together at the same time and now they are all associated with AI all right often AI is seen as the gold rush Nvidia sells the shovels if you will okay now this is that same date Nvidia earnings the entire market up 3.17% wow okay the whole Market this was there wasn't like a ton of things that happened it was this all right yeah what is that like 30% of the entire market gains on that one day after the video report earnings holy crap and the problem is now now this is a new trend if you look back at the last two it it it really didn't move that much Nvidia moved a little bit not a ton but unfortunately Nvidia has become so high so fast and so volatile we've already seen them go from 500 to 950 back to 600 all the way back to 950 in a span of like 3 months perfect that's terrifying that is not healthy so they are about to report earnings but more importantly Microsoft Nvidia meta and Google okay it it's about 25% of the cues you can see how much they've moved obviously the cues are up 11% in change you can see hey nvidia's up 88 meta is 34 Google 27 Apple's actually the met a little bit um avgo also has AI applications that kind of stuff however yeah it's not moving in tandem with the other ones if you look on any given day Google's a little bit odd too but it is going crazy these stocks move together there's no day where meta or Google tanks because a big AI news event and Nvidia is up they're all moving in tandem which is scary because they're 25% of the cues and now you have the leader of that group not leader in terms of market cap leader in terms of volatility is about to report earnings nice dope uh 522 Wednesday after market close I don't know what to do my brain is saying don't touch anything because you never want to time the market and I can't picture them going higher I feel only bad things are about to happen so you know it's just when you say that that they hit a new all-time high I don't I don't even know what to do but in case there is because I know people have asked this on other questions like hey if there is like a decent what are you looking to buy so one I didn't want to do a video on this but essentially Microsoft is going to start um offering amd's Flagship n1300 X chps there as your cloud computing service yada y yada basically what's happening nvidia's chips are better they're harder to come by so in a gold rush you just buy shittier shovels instead of no shovels perfect that's the logic here granted Lisa su's my hero um but amdu Google and meta I bought Google which I got for by the way um at like 128 or whatever it was 130 I wish I would have bought more I truly want to buy more meta if there's I don't think this is going to happen to be very clear if there's a crazy crash in the next couple months then I would love to add Microsoft and Nvidia okay I don't think that's going to happen I can't buy Nvidia in large quantities above $500 a share and that's gross to say because 500 is still too much so yeah I don't have a buy number on Nvidia I think the other ones I would buy are probably anything approaching a 5% free cash flow yield or more um that that's generally what I was doing as far as buying both meta and uh Google at the time so yeah which by the way have you used Google's browser after their AI update okay huge fan I would like to buy more just for that I love it yeah yeah it's been useful I'm still getting used to it but it has proven useful I would say I love it I'm a huge fan of it I can't I I already have Google but all right guys uh let us know what you guys think I'm terrified the the whole by the way real quick the whole thing of selling may go away actually does not stand up statistically you actually over the last 80 years would have missed out on a large percent of gains I'm not saying to do that I just have a very bad feeling but I'm too much of a wuss to do anything about it so perfect that's where I'm at all right guys yeah catch the next one
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