저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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Two Stupid Guys 진행자들이 소프트 랜딩 vs 하드 랜딩을 논하며 구독자 투표를 유도함. 2024년 5월 시점 CPI(서비스 인플레이션 고착), 고용 둔화 조짐, 1994년 소프트 랜딩 사례와 1980년대 하드 랜딩 사례를 비교. 시티 치프 이코노미스트의 하드 랜딩 및 금리 인하 4회 전망을 소개하고 6월 고용보고서를 주요 변수로 꼽음. 투자 포지션으로는 TLT 추가 매수 고려와 고금리 현금 선호를 언급했으나 구체적 종목 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys so I'm Dylan I'm Vinnie and there was a chief us Economist who has called for a hard Landing we're going back to this stuff so we're going to take a look at the probability of a soft versus hard Landing but more importantly I want everyone to vote right we're going to go over all the data with GDP unemployment all the stuff but you have to tell me if you guys are harder hard or soft okay STS just move past it yep everyone knows the rules one take no the rule is when it's soft you can't do anything with it when it's hard someone gets screwed they solid man yeah people think we rehearse this no we don't um so basically this guy uh from city is saying that we are headed for a hard Landing now this matters a lot especially for people who are a in a TLT trade like me and B have a lot of cash on the side waiting to use it like apparently Warren Buffett as we saw yesterday if you watch that video um Warren Buffett sitting on a bunch of cash and I also am saving a bunch trying to do something with it um so H nice not 200 billion but you know nice it's very close very close just like eight orders of magnitude lower yeah um perfect doubling down in his contrarian view Chief use Economist Andrew hollinghurst I don't know who that is sees a hard landing and more importantly this came out five days ago he's calling for four Benchmark rate Cuts this year okay okay I don't that seems shocking to me but yeah let's give this our due diligence everyone if I want everyone to vote we're just going to lean into it hard or soft in in the comments at the pin all right because I'm I'm actually kind of curious here um so what is a soft versus hard Landing essentially you have the central bank that has interest rates that determines if you do this too fast you could have a hard Landing if you go too slow oh sorry if you go too fast you're have a hard Landing ideally you want a soft Landing because there are consequences of a hard Landing so what is a soft Landing soft Landing is when a cyclical slowdown economic growth that avoids a recession okay okay so you have the goal of the Central Bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing High inflation which we definitely are without causing a severe downt downturn yeah so hard the exact opposite okay break it now oh that was weird um here is an example of a soft Landing okay so when I look this up everyone essentially agrees 1994 1995 Allan green span did fantastic I put the the actual rate changes um from 1994 through 1995 but essentially uh between those dates greenpan led the fomc to almost double the funds rate and just seven increases after a brief recession earlier early 90s the US economy had fantastic GDP growth following that unemployment rate decreased everyone was very happy inflation decreased it was a great time okay now let me move your your face here so the green is that time so you can actually see the unemployment rate drop 6.5 to .6 you got to see the annual GDP growth and the inflation so good job alen greenpan now let's look at the early 80s which is a good example of a non-soft landing so you go from 7.2 to 10.8% unemployment that is bad that is not good on top of that your annual GDP growth is yeah what let me here we go not good look at that very very bad and your inflation rate that mean it did decrease rapidly to be fair yeah it's hard to spend money if you don't have a job that that's that's the 10% people there would say to you so yeah not suris and you can actually see here's the interest rate going back from the 50s we were almost at 20% and then 3 years later 7% That's pretty you know that's a shock to the system not I think that was very much an intentional decision at that time though because Paul vler when he really wanted to Stave off any additional waves of inflation after having eased too early twice before the Federal Reserve had I do agree yes it was on purpose I do think the almost 11% unemployment rate was not on purpose that is a problem 11% is quite High um so the three pillars of this your GD P unemployment and inflation um Vinnie showed this earlier I'm going to have you talk about this yeah uh so basically you're looking at the actual like uh portions of the Consumer Price Index and which ones have come down uh over time we still had some negative kind of room in Goods but services are remain pretty consistently elevated uh particularly insurance if you look on like a category by category breakdown it's been the one that's driving inflation still at this Point uh We've made some good progress but still have some room to go for sure on the inflation front it's kind of scary that it's literally not moving at all it's just it's just hanging out there so that is not ideal if this stays then I see no reason to cut rates cutting rates too soon would be a problem unless there's something happens to the other two pillars here so let's look at the the GDP okay now this top graph is so skewed because of Co it you can't even appreciate the changes so I zoomed in so just a 2022 down here um you can see we have decreased two quarters in a row now quarter 4 2023 we had 3.4% quarter 1 1.6% a recession is considered two consecutive quarters of decline now that used to be the definition I don't I don't know what happened to it yeah a part of it yeah people just like disagreed in Co and they're like nope no recession but like it I don't know it I'm still don't know if you look it up there's still multiple people saying yes there was and no there wasn't so I don't yeah I don't know perfect whatever um here's the annual growth um you can see you know 2021 is absolutely insane we're still increasing in on an annual basis M so unemployment rate I'm going to show you what that gentleman earlier said about this latest uptick so we did get higher to 3.9% this is nowhere near 10 or something crazy but his point is this he said we're in a higher for longer stage of the policy cycle the next stage of the policy cycle is a weakening of the labor market once it starts grow gradually weakening it then weakens more sharply quickly okay so he's calling for unemployment to drastically change in the next six months all right yeah we had layoffs come in a little bit elevated in this past week too so we definitely have seen some softening of the job market over the last like month or so yes once again I put this graph in here just to show how ridiculous Co was it just ruins all the closeup I'm just crazy um here's the best part of this all right I don't understand how all these people how all these people have jobs I don't get it I don't get how you can be at this high of a level and drastically disagree over so many things these two articles are two months apart the one on the right is February the one on the left obviously these are different organizations is uh April so left we have a 33% odds of the US economy entering recession by end of quarter 1 on the right we have an 85% chance of recession in 2024 those are so different I don't understand how there's not a job review for these economists that will say I don't get how you can say hey we're going to have a recession this year I'm 85% certain and then it doesn't happen and then that person still has a job I don't I don't get it especially we're in medicine if I said I would I would be sued I would have I would be fired so fast I don't get it yeah I mean weatherman and an economist I'm not sure which one has a lower standard there but you know people will argue that the true purpose of an economist is understand past events not to predict future events yeah then shut up don't do it uh all right so here's some dates to to take um these are going to be kind of important so May 15th is your April CPI May 30th is your GDP the second estimate so they've already done the first one there's usually just some couple tweaks and then June 7th is going to be the jobs report I think the jobs report is probably going to be the most important of these three because we're going to look at the subsequent month after the increase right so where you guys at hard Landing or soft Landing I feel very bad saying I on a hard Landing because obviously people go out of work it's very very tough on a lot of families in the same world though the stock market the stocks that I want will be on sale interest decreases historically during a hard Landing um I am trying to accumulate more TLT but I'm also not willing to increase my risk beyond what it is right now especially when I'm just getting 5 and a half% free money free interest so yeah hard to pass up that 5% that's a one Buck yeah it's not easy man that's I every time I I go to buy something I'm like I really want to have nid in my portfolio but I that's just so expensive it's crazy I don't not at this price yeah I get it all I take the soft landing position I think that's what they're going to happen uh is doing his job it's going to be a softer Landing softer so you're soft yeah totally soft yeah I'm gonna have to be hard I'm GNA be pretty hard on this one all right guys let us know what you think
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